The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Actually I think box office openings will really go down after this year and we may not see another 200m opening again for a very long time. With the ST ending and End Game having come and gone the 'must see right away' movies are really going to become a thing of the past in my opinion. Marvel probably won't hit the same highs that they did in the movies leading up to End Game and the next Star Wars trilogy probably won't hit the highs that the ST did. Only thing that could really potentially hit the 200 mark might be the Avatar movies and we really don't know how big of a fan base the Avatar franchise has anymore.

 

I think these past few years will wind up being more out of the ordinary than they were the 'new normal'.

OWs have grown pretty steadily and reliably for decades. If that stops (or even reverses, as it seems like you’re hypothesizing) it will be a paradigm shift that’s a very, very, very bad sign for the theater industry as a whole, because it’d probably indicate streaming fears actually materializing.  
 

But I think what you’ll actually find in the next half dozen years is 150M+ openings becoming increasingly common, and less impressive, and 200M+ openings becoming increasingly common, and less impressive, and 250M+ openings becoming increasingly common... and, okay, still pretty damn fucking impressive. 

Edited December 6, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Eh, I dunno man. Things change over time. Numbers that a half dozen years ago would be spectacular without any possible exception and independent of context become numbers that... aren’t necessarily.    
 

Now for TROS, I’d say that 190 is still pretty fine, not “hilarious.” But a $199M OW on April 26th this year would have been a legit cause for a What Went Wrong. That’s just a huge OW nowadays, not megahuge, imo.

The important part of the phrase is "I've lived long enough to see..."

 

I was around when 100m OW was seen as     

 

So, to me, seeing "anything under 200m is hilarious" is damn near objectively crazy.  Even with ticket inflation taken into account.  

 

[Porthos]

Also, kinnnnda think we might be approaching peak ticket price inflation for a while.  This year has even seen ticket deflation a bit, though I haven't kept up with the latest quarterly estimate. 2018 wasn't that much higher than 2017 either, from what I recall (curse you redesigned BOM).

 

Might be a while before ticket prices really go up again.  Oh they might creep up, but I don't think we can count on ticket inflation to goose totals in the DOM market. 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The important part of the phrase is "I've lived long enough to see..."

Oh, I totally missed the point    
 

Yeah, I can’t imagine what it be like seeing people go “this movie might miss 400M OW, how pathetic” when enough time has passed.

[Legion Again]

I think the slowdown in ATP is caused in part by people increasingly taking advantage of cheap Tuesday tickets, which isn’t sustainable. But that’s a conversation for another day.

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

OWs have grown pretty steadily and reliably for decades. If that stops (or even reverses, as it seems like you’re hypothesizing) it will be a paradigm shift that’s a very, very, very bad sign for the theater industry as a whole, because it’d probably indicate streaming fears actually materializing.  
 

But I think what you’ll actually find in the next half dozen years is 150M+ openings becoming increasingly common, and less impressive, and 200M+ openings becoming increasingly common, and less impressive, and 250M+ openings becoming increasingly common... and, okay, still pretty damn fucking impressive. 

Yeah, but this year sees the end of SW Saga, Avengers (for now), Disney has done its biggest remake, idk if future JW films will be able to improve from Fallen Kingdom. Avatar most likely isn't doing 200 million OW in December, it's not that type of film. That leaves Black Panther 2 as the next likely 200 million opener I guess? I don't know if opening inflation can counteract the decline in IP.

[JB33]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Also, kinnnnda think we might be approaching peak ticket price inflation for a while.  This year has even seen ticket deflation a bit, though I haven't kept up with the latest quarterly estimate. 2018 wasn't that much higher than 2017 either, from what I recall (curse you redesigned BOM).

 

Might be a while before ticket prices really go up again.  Oh they might creep up, but I don't think we can count on ticket inflation to goose totals in the DOM market. 

This is great news for tracking.

[Legion Again]

26 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah, but this year sees the end of SW Saga, Avengers (for now), Disney has done its biggest remake, idk if future JW films will be able to improve from Fallen Kingdom. Avatar most likely isn't doing 200 million OW in December, it's not that type of film. That leaves Black Panther 2 as the next likely 200 million opener I guess? I don't know if opening inflation can counteract the decline in IP.

We’re in a bit of an unusual situation right now where Disney, the big OW driver, put a lot of huge OWs all in a year or two. So I think it’s quite possible (highly likely, even) that the next 2 years or so will see a subdued period for OWs as things “recharge.” But while there’s a bit of a periodical nature, it’s really a periodical modification of a long-term exponential trend. On a time scale of 5, 6, 7 years we should see big OW growth driven by new and renewed IP, like we did from 2012 to now, 2005 to 2012, 1998 to 2005, 91 to 98, 84 to 91, etc etc. If not, that’ll be a huge warning flag imo that something has changed in the “people physically traveling to a large screen to see a new movie” model.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, JB33 said:

This is great news for tracking.

Well, it's just a theory.  @Arendelle Legion could be more right than I am.

 

I guess I am also thinking a bit about how streaming might be affecting mid tier movies.  If theaters keep rising prices, those mid tier movies might become even more endangered, which can't be good for the industry overall.

 

I know that @TalismanRing has been a vocal proponent of variable/flex pricing and if that ever happened, that'd mess with the ATP even more.

 

I dunno. I'm not as down on the future of theaters as some folks.  But I do think there is something of a ceiling for current tickets that is gonna take a while for society to catch up.  If they keep looking at various all-you-can-eat streaming services that cost 7 to 13 bucks a month, they could very well look at a $15 ticket price for a movie and go "really"?  

 

I know the ATP currently is a little more than $9, so the $15 was more on PLF or mooted future inflation.  I suppose I am more thinking that there are market forces at play which are holding down ticket prices and I'm not sure how long they'll be around or how strong they'll be. 

 

EDIT::

 

And before @TwoMisfits chimes in, yes, that's before all the  ancillary costs of popcorn and drinks and all the rest is factored in, especially for families.

 

Various movie clubs might mitigate that to one degree or another.  But it's still a factor alongside ATP.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Porthos

[ZackM]

Jumanji: The Next Level Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	19	0	79
Seats Added	0	5,717	-300	15,505
Seats Sold	42	181	18	178
12/5/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	98	20,503	20,922	419	2.00%

[RockyMountain]

I don't know. I do think that it will still be extremely rare to see a 200m opening. Basically the mega huge openings we have seen the last several years have been driven by two things

 

1. Star Wars was back

 

2. Marvel was getting close to its End Game

 

I think 150-175 will be what becomes extremely common but seeing something that goes 200m or higher on OW will be much more rare than it was from 2015-2019. 

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

Jumanji totally buzzless around me. Star Wars is obviously not "buzzless" but it certainly seems a significant drop, it is closer to Rogue One level than anything. It'll be fine though, probably a little better received than Last Jedi (among audiences etc) and leg it out to 550. Jumanji though.....think that might miss 200 at this point. Feels like a classic Alice in Wonderland/Ted type lightning in a bottle run for the first.

[JB33]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well, it's just a theory.  @Arendelle Legion could be more right than I am.

 

I guess I am also thinking a bit about how streaming might be affecting mid tier movies.  If theaters keep rising prices, those mid tier movies might become even more endangered, which can't be good for the industry overall.

 

I know that @TalismanRing has been a vocal proponent of variable/flex pricing and if that ever happened, that'd mess with the ATP even more.

 

I dunno. I'm not as down on the future of theaters as some folks.  But I do think there is something of a ceiling for current tickets that is gonna take a while for society to catch up.  If they keep looking at various all-you-can-eat streaming services that cost 7 to 13 bucks a month, they could very well look at a $15 ticket price for a movie and go "really"?  

 

I know the ATP currently is a little more than $9, so the $15 was more on PLF or mooted future inflation.  I suppose I am more thinking that there are market forces at play which are holding down ticket prices and I'm not sure how long they'll be around or how strong they'll be. 

 

EDIT::

 

And before @TwoMisfits chimes in, yes, that's before all the  ancillary costs of popcorn and drinks and all the rest is factored in, especially for families.

 

Various movie clubs might mitigate that to one degree or another.  But it's still a factor alongside ATP.

A constant item of feedback I get from people is that premium showings dont match up with premium prices. That is to say,  whatever is premium about their experience is still not worth what you have to pay. This couldn't be more the case than with 3D, where theatres are finally learning that audiences just aren't buying it (literally).

 

I believe lowering prices (both premium and normal) by even a couple bucks would make a huge difference. Especially when you get to things like IMAX. Sure, its definitely a more special experience, but well over $20 worth? Maybe for some people, but unless you're a mega film buff it's a hard sell.

[jedijake]

When TFA opened with $248 million, a lot of things became hilarious. Earlier this year when the bar was set at $357 million, the door to hilarity became wide open. Expectations for OW's themselves have become the most hilarious.

 

Btw, SW appeals most to older farts like me so staying up past 9:00 become difficult. We become grumpy. Hope that doesn't hurt TROS's BO or we'll get even grumpier lol.

[RockyMountain]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

When TFA opened with $248 million, a lot of things became hilarious. Earlier this year when the bar was set at $357 million, the door to hilarity became wide open. Expectations for OW's themselves have become the most hilarious.

 

Btw, SW appeals most to older farts like me so staying up past 9:00 become difficult. We become grumpy. Hope that doesn't hurt TROS's BO or we'll get even grumpier lol.

If you don't think Star Wars resonates with people under 25 than you have been watching too much youtube (or at least the wrong youtube channels).

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

If you don't think Star Wars resonates with people under 25 than you have been watching too much youtube (or at least the wrong youtube channels).

He was definitely too extreme but SW skews a bit older than a lot of other mega blockbuster franchises. Not to the extent he was saying but for example Avengers tends to average about 50/50 split for O/U 25, while SW is in the 60-70% over 25 range for opening weekend.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Menor

[Porthos]

-posted in wrong thread-

Edited December 6, 2019 by Porthos
edited for clairty

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	8	4	27	5	17
Seats Sold	253	220	260	120	218
12/5/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	27,069	41,927	14,858	35.44%

 

We're really cruising now.  The next 2 weeks should be fun.

[RockyMountain]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

He was definitely too extreme but SW definitely skews a bit older than a lot of other mega blockbuster franchises.

Of course it does right now. As the kids who are now in highschool never grew up with a Star Wars trilogy going on in theaters. Ten years from now though  I think Star Wars will again be huge in the 12-17 age range since the ST was going on when they were six and seven.

[RockyMountain]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

-wrong thread-

Sorry