The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

Apparently my local theater chain, Megaplex Theatres, is one of the most lucrative in the country. Never knew that. @A Star is Orm, you might be interested in this

 

Quote

“Over the last 20 years, we’ve had a great opportunity to rank in the top five locations across the country for most of the major tentpole films, like Pirates of the Caribbean and Star Wars,” says Gundersen. “Harry Potter was extremely successful here. Hunger Games. All of those we did major premieres for. We have theaters that are ranked in the top-five-grossing theaters for North America.”

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/megaplex-theatres-20th-anniversary-larry-miller/

That quote made me do a little digging. Megaplex had a top 10 theater for TFA, had places 1, 4, 11, 19 for RO, and 5, 7, and 20 for TLJ.

 

RO and TLJ were for the whole weekend, and TFA was as of the first Saturday morning.

Edited December 5, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Legion Again]

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-little-women-spies-in-disguise-uncut-gems-1202801742/
 

Jumanji 30+

TROs 200+, some saying as low as 175  

Uncut Gems 15M 5-day

Spies in Disguise 23-30 5-day

Little Women 19-35 5-day (lmfao)

Edited December 5, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[keysersoze123]

On 12/4/2019 at 11:52 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 previews (T-8)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1534 shows 7260/327868 126648.69 +1110
MTC2 Prev - overall 2677 shows 4175/437160 52508.00 +702

 

Not great. I was just looking at where Mal 2 was at similar point and this is well below that at similar point at least at MTC1. That said this will be similar to H&S rather than any other movie. It will have great finish to PS enough to having ok OW. I think it needs at least H&S OW plus good WOM to take it to respectable total.

 

 

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-7)

MTC1  - overall 1559 shows 8530/332474 148126.13 +1245
MTC2 - overall 2653 shows 4684/433040 59083.00 +509

 

Very low numbers. Just getting these numbers out for records as real action wont happen until next week mid.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 

TROs 200+, some saying as low as 175  

"some saying"

 

Oh, Deadline.  

 

Never change.  Never ever change. 👍

[StarWarsMemer]

How bad is Playmobil selling

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

"some saying"

 

Oh, Deadline.  

 

Never change.  Never ever change. 👍

The 19-35 range struck me as even more classic. That’d be like calling for 190-350 for some movie

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1747

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1787

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9122	94	22870	39.89%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 22.14M

Final Maleficent count comp: 25.87M

Final IT 2 count comp: 24.67M

Final Hobbs count comp: 25.78M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 26.32M

Final Lion King count comp: 27.65M

 

Average: 25.41M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1758

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1798

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9239	117	22870	40.40%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 22.42M

Final Maleficent count comp: 26.20M

Final IT 2 count comp: 24.98M

Final Hobbs count comp: 26.11M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 26.70M

Final Lion King count comp: 28.01M

 

Average: 25.74M

[Eric Duncan]

25 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-little-women-spies-in-disguise-uncut-gems-1202801742/
 

Jumanji 30+

TROs 200+, some saying as low as 175  

Uncut Gems 15M 5-day

Spies in Disguise 23-30 5-day

Little Women 19-35 5-day (lmfao)

You forgot Cats with 15-20M, and Bombshell with 7-12M. How dare you!

 

Nah but fr, for comparison's sake, these are the Christmas 2013 openers and their 5-days (last time the calendar had this configuration):

 

WOWS: 34.1

Walter Mitty: 25.4

47 Ronin: 20.6

Grudge Match: 13.1

 

Yeah, I doubt that low end for Little Women.   Spies sounds about right. Gems depends on how wide it goes.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1758

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1798

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9239	117	22870	40.40%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 22.42M

Final Maleficent count comp: 26.20M

Final IT 2 count comp: 24.98M

Final Hobbs count comp: 26.11M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 26.70M

Final Lion King count comp: 28.01M

 

Average: 25.74M

Does appear to me looking at yours, mine, as well as @Eric Plus's, @ZackM's, and @FlashMaster659's daily reports (as well as @Jayhawk's batch reports) that we are in a new plateau stage of TROS sales and even with the occasional spike or dip we're not seeing things go back to where they were for the majority of the marathon stage.

 

*pauses*

 

*knocks several times on the imitation wood of my desk for good luck*

 

Of course, now that I've said that...

 

No, seriously though.  Does appear we're in bit of a higher stage right now.  Tis a good omen for TROS in my opinion.  How good though remains to be seen.

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

You forgot Cats with 15-20M, and Bombshell with 7-12M. How dare you!

They weren’t in the first two paragraphs, so they don’t deserve to exist.   
 

No but for real, what was deadline doing hiding them all the way down there? What a hassle.

[Porthos]

Locally, the one thing that is really helping TROS is that the post 10pm showings are starting to fill up at the better theaters in town.  Still a great resistance to the post 11pm and post-midnight showings.  But even there, there are the occasional sales, especially group batches.

 

I'd feel a lot better if there were more sellouts, and it really is the one thing that is giving me pause about TROS more than anything.  IMO sellouts show intensity as folks say "I HAVE to see this NOW and I'll take the crappiest seats if I have to". 

 

====

 

On the other hand, those crappy seats have been selling quite a bit. If I combine "front two rows [or equivalent] of seats left" with 90%+ of seats sold, I have 69 showings out of 194 reserved showings at that level.  That's a lot of showings at huge capacity.

 

Just not enough to completely sell out.

 

I don't know what the level of "Tele Sellouts" is (one row or less) as I don't track that personally.  But I know it's a lot.

 

So that's the next thing I'm waiting for in regards to TROS:  When do the sellouts start in earnest.  And how much will the increase in showtimes locally blunt that.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

46

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

46

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
180	18	11405	1.58%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.16M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.17M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.22M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.39M

Adjusted Lion King comp: 1.03M

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

57

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

51

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
198	18	11405	1.74%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.20M

Terminator comp: 3.94M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.30M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.18M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.47M

Adjusted Lion King comp: 1.05M

[Boxofficerules]

All these predictions seem to ignore Black Christmas 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

If SW actually go as low as $175m, LMFAO. Anything under $200m will be hilarious, tbh. It feels like a MJ2 situation. 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Anything under $200m will be hilarious, tbh.

 

On 12/11/2017 at 5:29 PM, Porthos said:

I've lived long enough to see the following phrase "there's a somewhat decent chance of barely 210M happening" be accomplied with a  smiley.

 

That's... That's kinda crazy. 

 

I can now add the phrase "anything under $200m will be hilarious".  👍

 

(that is crazy and every single person here knows it, whether they want to admit it or not)

Edited December 6, 2019 by Porthos

[RockyMountain]

20 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

If SW actually go as low as $175m, LMFAO. Anything under $200m will be hilarious, tbh. It feels like a MJ2 situation. 

175 was just put in there for conservative purposes (as they are expecting it to at the very least make that much).

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

I can now add the phrase "anything under $200m will be hilarious".  👍

 

(that is crazy and every single person here knows it, whether they want to admit it or not)

People called Lion King a failure despite doing 1.6 billion. We live in a weird world.

 

Several articles came out about Joker being the most profitable comic book film ever despite being mathematically impossible.

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

I can now add the phrase "anything under $200m will be hilarious".  👍

 

(that is crazy and every single person here knows it, whether they want to admit it or not)

Eh, I dunno man. Things change over time. Numbers that a half dozen years ago would be spectacular without any possible exception and independent of context become numbers that... aren’t necessarily.    
 

Now for TROS, I’d say that 190 is still pretty fine, not “hilarious.” But a $199M OW on April 26th this year would have been a legit cause for a What Went Wrong. That’s just a huge OW nowadays, not megahuge, imo.

[RockyMountain]

6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Eh, I dunno man. Things change over time. Numbers that a half dozen years ago would be spectacular without any possible exception and independent of context become numbers that... aren’t necessarily.    
 

Now for TROS, I’d say that 190 is still pretty fine, not “hilarious.” But a $199M OW on April 26th this year would have been a legit cause for a What Went Wrong. That’s just a huge OW nowadays, not megahuge, imo.

Actually I think box office openings will really go down after this year and we may not see another 200m opening again for a very long time. With the ST ending and End Game having come and gone the 'must see right away' movies are really going to become a thing of the past in my opinion. Marvel probably won't hit the same highs that they did in the movies leading up to End Game and the next Star Wars trilogy probably won't hit the highs that the ST did. Only thing that could really potentially hit the 200 mark might be the Avatar movies and we really don't know how big of a fan base the Avatar franchise has anymore.

 

I think these past few years will wind up being more out of the ordinary than they were the 'new normal'.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Locally, the one thing that is really helping TROS is that the post 10pm showings are starting to fill up at the better theaters in town.  Still a great resistance to the post 11pm and post-midnight showings.  But even there, there are the occasional sales, especially group batches.

 

I'd feel a lot better if there were more sellouts, and it really is the one thing that is giving me pause about TROS more than anything.  IMO sellouts show intensity as folks say "I HAVE to see this NOW and I'll take the crappiest seats if I have to". 

 

====

 

On the other hand, those crappy seats have been selling quite a bit. If I combine "front two rows [or equivalent] of seats left" with 90%+ of seats sold, I have 69 showings out of 194 reserved showings at that level.  That's a lot of showings at huge capacity.

 

Just not enough to completely sell out.

 

I don't know what the level of "Tele Sellouts" is (one row or less) as I don't track that personally.  But I know it's a lot.

 

So that's the next thing I'm waiting for in regards to TROS:  When do the sellouts start in earnest.  And how much will the increase in showtimes locally blunt that.

Interestingly, I'm feeling like that may hold down OW and push some of the viewers to the legs...

 

Seems Star Wars fans have more and more become the "I'm not seeing this after 9pm" group - if we go back, TLJ suffered from this fact all through its opening 2 weeks (after getting through opening Thursday/Friday)...

 

But, unlike TLJ, I don't think TROS will get as big a clear out b/c it has to accommodate other openers and previous week movies, and probably has to deal with the "burn" theaters got from the Disney contract last time (aka, they might be keeping the screens lower in each theater than expected b/c they want all sellouts)...

 

Right now, it's still sitting at 19 showings for F/S/S at both my 12s...so, roughly 5 screens.  That's not a TLJ-level booking...at least not yet.