The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Pirates will be uber frontloaded. Minus the fan base who will come in OD it will fall apart quite quickly. Mt number is not bad but nothing to show that its going to break out.

[Biggestgeekever]

46 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

It was at 40% end of day.

Could you dig up the numbers X-men Apocalypse was posting in the days before its release, if you have the chance?

[grim22]

13 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Could you dig up the numbers X-men Apocalypse was posting in the days before its release, if you have the chance?

 

Monday evening

 

MT:

 

X-Men 16.5

Cap 15.5

Angry Birds 13

Neighbors 10.4

Shakespeare Show 9

 

Pulse:

 

1. X-Men

2. Cap

3. Neighbors

4. Angry Birds

5. Nice Guys

 

X-Men presales were double of what Pirates is at currently.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Monday evening

 

MT:

 

X-Men 16.5

Cap 15.5

Angry Birds 13

Neighbors 10.4

Shakespeare Show 9

 

Pulse:

 

1. X-Men

2. Cap

3. Neighbors

4. Angry Birds

5. Nice Guys

 

Previous w/e

 

 

vs

 

MT:

 

1. Alien: Covenant - 23
2. Guardians 2 - 20
3. Pirates 5 - 12
4. Snatched - 5
5. Everything, Everything - 5

 

Pulse:

 

1. Alien Covenant
2. Pirates of the Caribbean Dead Men Tell No Tales
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
4. IN OUR HANDS Battle for Jerusalem
5. IN OUR HANDS Battle for Jerusalem (listed twice, must be a glitch

 

Edited May 23, 2017 by TalismanRing

[John Marston]

dont think X men is a good comparison. They have rabid frontloaded audiences 

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

dont think X men is a good comparison. They have rabid frontloaded audiences 

 

Pirates was a bigger PS seller at Peak than XMen

[John Marston]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

 

Pirates was a bigger PS seller at Peak than XMen

 

But not anymore. X men still has the comic book fanbase 

[The Panda]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Pirates will be uber frontloaded. Minus the fan base who will come in OD it will fall apart quite quickly. Mt number is not bad but nothing to show that its going to break out.

 

Pirates has never been an overly frontloaded franchise, and it's always had poor reviews.  I have a hard time seeing a multi below 2.4x or so (worst case).

[trifle]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

dont think X men is a good comparison. They have rabid frontloaded audiences 

 

XMA had pretty good legs and multiplier.

[filmlover]

Baywatch is also getting bad reviews as well. Personally I think we're in for another underwhelming Memorial Day weekend frame (following the last two years) again.

[bcf26]

If Baywatch underperforms, we can blame Zac Efron.

If Baywatch overperforms, we can praise Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and Alexandra Daddario.

[filmlover]

Just now, bcf26 said:

If Baywatch underperforms, we can blame Zac Efron.

If Baywatch overperforms, we can praise Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and Alexandra Daddario.

If it overperforms, Dwayne gets all the credit. It would probably to sink to a sub-$50M gross like Zac's last few stinkers otherwise.

[miketheavenger]

I agree with @John Marston and DAJK that the openers will still do rather well. Reviews don't matter that much for either of them.

[TwoMisfits]

23 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Mall theater

Wed Baywatch

2 screens - 4 showings, 2 dolby and 2 regular - 2 sold regular, 15 sold Dolby (think some of these are the $5 seats when any seat was $5) - up 7 seats since yesterday

Thurs Pirates

3 screens - 5 showings, 2 3d Imax, 1 3d, and 2 regular - 56 sold Imax 3d, 0 sold 3d, 22 sold regular - up 11 seats from yesterday

 

I figure once reviews are all out, I'll update this tomorrow and/or Wednesday...

 

So, same time update...mall theater decided to add 2 full theaters for Thursday night Pirates, but not yet for the rest of the weekend...so there's that...

Wed Baywatch (same showings) - 2 sold regular, 17 sold Dolby - up only 2 seats from yesterday - yes, this is gonna likely be my 1st big blown call of the summer...still going to see it and enjoy it!

Thurs Pirates (now 9 showings - 2 3d Imax, 3 3d - odd b/c sales suck in this format, and 4 regular) - 61 sold Imax 3d, 0 sold 3d, 41 sold regular - up 24 seats from yesterday...

 

These screens are 200-300 seat theaters for both movies - no small theaters picked for these two...

Edited May 23, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

So what is a good preview prediction for Pirates and Baywatch. Baywatch I would say would be lucky to do 3m unless it has benefit of discount tuesday(to my knowledge discount tuesday should not be for OD movies).

 

Pirates 3 had 17m previews 10 years back. Back then it was good old days when grosses before midnight were moved to thursday(it opened 7PM thursday) and grosses post midnight were part of friday. I just glanced at NYC and even loews lincoln sq imax is not even 40% sold out.

I would say 6m.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

So what is a good preview prediction for Pirates and Baywatch. Baywatch I would say would be lucky to do 3m unless it has benefit of discount tuesday(to my knowledge discount tuesday should not be for OD movies).

 

Pirates 3 had 17m previews 10 years back. Back then it was good old days when grosses before midnight were moved to thursday(it opened 7PM thursday) and grosses post midnight were part of friday. I just glanced at NYC and even loews lincoln sq imax is not even 40% sold out.

I would say 6m.

 

 

 

With the weird Wednesday night preview, Baywatch is gonna have crap previews...anything over $1M would be good in my book (and I don't think it will get there)...$3M would be a miracle making me think my Casino pick would actually have a really good shot:)...

[WrathOfHan]

Baywatch has two screens at my theater on Thursday. Full week showings aren't up yet, but I imagine it keeps two for the rest of the week (it's in the second biggest auditorium at the very least)

Edited May 23, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Eevin]

5 hours ago, trifle said:

 

XMA had pretty good legs and multiplier.

This is...wrong

[Napoleon]

11 hours ago, grim22 said:

A user was kind enough to provide us presale data, I won't post the actual data here, but here are the basics:

 

Pirates 5 is about 20% higher than Alien:Covenant at the same point before release

Baywatch is half of Bad Moms at the same point before release

Wonder Woman is at 78% of Suicide Squad at the same point before release

The Mummy has sold 900 tickets to date

Captain Underpants is about 30% of Lego Batman

 

In terms of pure numbers: Pirates + Baywatch + Mummy + Captain Underpants < Wonder Woman currently.

Wow, this is really good for Wonder Woman.

 

I was feeling around $100M for its OW, that seems guaranteed.

[The Panda]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Pirates was a bigger PS seller at Peak than XMen

 

That still doesn't make it a more fan-oriented/frontloaded franchise.  That's only because Pirates at its peak was much larger than X-Men at its peak.