The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

12 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	62	6694	0.93%

 

Comp

0.484x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-9 (3.73M)

0.861x of Snake Eyes T-9 (1.2M)

0.912x of Jungle Cruise T-9 (2.46M)

 

I wasn't planning on tracking this, but @katnisscinnaplex and their data did perk my interest, so might as well give this a look. These comps are all over the place, but overall it's pretty decent and makes me confident so far in 20M+. The Snake Eyes comp might give people pause, but from the next day onwards, Snake Eyes presales pretty much died, so we should see a pickup.

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	68	6694	1.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.883x of Snake Eyes T-8 (1.24M)

0.883x of Jungle Cruise T-8 (2.38M)

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/4/2021 at 8:54 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-2 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	20	4,842	150	3.10%	$1,907	$12.71
Cine 1	4	1,708	290	16.98%	$4,640	$16.00
Total	24	6,550	440	6.72%	$6,547	$14.88

 

Shows Added	-
Seats Added	-
Seats Sold	76

 

 

Comps

No Black Widow Comp but probably around 20.5% i.e. $2.7M

1.87x Jungle Cruise - $5.05M

 

Addendum:

Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	5	841	38	4.52%	$456	$12.00
Cine 1	4	1,276	130	10.19%	$1,950	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	105	11.80%	$1,575	$15.00
Total	11	3,007	273	9.08%	$3,981	$14.58

No Comp available

 

I guess when I check again in 4 hours, CA will be 440 admits or so. Not a great day per se, just par yesterday. Thinking may be 1400 final in CA as compared to 1253 of Jungle Cruise and 5711 of Black Widow.

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-1 Day

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	20	4,842	270	5.58%	$3,428	$12.70
Cine 1	4	1,708	362	21.19%	$5,792	$16.00
Total	24	6,550	632	9.65%	$9,220	$14.59

 

Shows Added	-
Seats Added	-
Seats Sold	192

Comps

1.52x Jungle Cruise - $4.1M

 

JC sold 186 seats T-1 day while TSS sold 192 seats. On final day, JC sold 823 seats for 2.9x PSm. Expecting TSS to sell 750-800 seats for 1380-1430 final, which will give it 1.1-1.15x JC numbers i.e. ~$3M.

 

Addendum:

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	5	841	58	6.90%	$696	$12.00
Cine 1	4	1,276	177	13.87%	$2,655	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	127	14.27%	$1,905	$15.00
Total	11	3,007	362	12.04%	$5,256	$14.52

 

The numbers are currently 18.4% of BW final #s. Will probably hit 35% in final count. Doing better than CA in these two.

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-1 Day

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	20	4,842	248	5.12%	$3,151	$12.71
Cine 1	4	1,708	338	19.79%	$5,408	$16.00
Total	24	6,550	586	8.95%	$8,559	$14.61

 

Comps

1.42x Jungle Cruise - $3.83M

 

I will do detailed analysis later on.

 

Addendum:

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	5	841	58	6.90%	$696	$12.00
Cine 1	4	1,276	166	13.01%	$2,490	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	127	14.27%	$1,905	$15.00
Total	11	3,007	351	11.67%	$5,091	$14.50

I guess it's finishing par or below JC there. Pace today was a good bit lower (146 vs 178 if I'm reading the comps right)

Edited August 5, 2021 by Menor

[Rorschach]

The Suicide Squad - Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX -- Wednesday Night Outlook

 

Thursday:

IMAX showings: 27/774

7:00 P.M.: 20/387

10:15 P.M.: 7/387

 

2D showings: 78/508

7:30 P.M.: 43/135

8:00 P.M.: 21/238

10:45 P.M.: 14/135

 

Total Sold: 105/1,282 (8.19% sold)

------------------------------------------------

Friday:

IMAX showings: 4/1,548

12:20 P.M.: 0/387

3:40 P.M.: 0/387

7:00 P.M.: 2/387

10:20 P.M.: 2/387

 

2D showings: 60/1,492

10:05 A.M.: 2/135

11:10 A.M.: 3/238

1:25 P.M.: 4/135

2:30 P.M.: 6/238

4:45 P.M.: 6/135

5:50 P.M.: 2/238

8:05 P.M.: 31/135

9:10 P.M.: 6/238

 

Total Sold: 64/3,040 (2.11% sold)
Thurs + Fri: 169/4,322 (3.91% sold)

 

Comps:

0.178x Black Widow Previews: $2.35 mil

1.75x Jungle Cruise Previews: $4.73 mil

2.838x Snake Eyes Previews: $3.97 mil

Average: $3.68 mil

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

I guess it's finishing par or below JC there. Pace today was a good bit lower (146 vs 178 if I'm reading the comps right)

Yeah most likely will give $3M comp but MTC1 will push it over 3.5

[charlie Jatinder]

@Lokis Legion pointed out that PTA of DCEU films is on decreasing steak as well.

 

TSS need to open over $32.5M to avoid the downfall. Seems hard.

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	15390	16452	1062	6.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	243
Total Seats Sold Today	167

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-2

Total Sold

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

Comp

Ont Comp

BW

18.31

706

5800

0/241

25079/30879

18.78%

2.42m

2.53m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	56.24		359	1870		26/118	2479/4349	43.00%		2.71m		2.84m
F9	39.31		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		2.79m		2.92m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		166	1055		0/105	15262/16317	6.47%		---		---
TSS (F9 adj)	---		155	967		0/93	13243/14210	6.81%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  0.97212x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-2* [4.79m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	15221	16564	1343	8.11%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	112
Total Seats Sold Today	281

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-1

Total Sold

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

Comp

Ont Comp

BW

19.34

1144

6944

0/258

25357/32301

21.50%

2.55m

2.67m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	55.37		523	2393		22/125	2643/5036	47.42%		2.66m		2.78m
F9	41.74		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		2.96m		3.10m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		270	1325		0/107	15104/16429	8.07%		---		---
TSS (F9 adj)	---		243	1210		0/95	13112/14322	8.45%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  0.84151x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-1* [4.15m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Menor said:

I guess it's finishing par or below JC there. Pace today was a good bit lower (146 vs 178 if I'm reading the comps right)

I am comping with Gross. TSS has more premium seat sold than while JC was doing well in normal shows. JC sold 186 vs 192 of TSS. Updated the post.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Shawn said:

I'm a little stunned at how this thing is flat-lining across the board with the fan base + reviews.       

 

 

 

                  TOMATO LAW HAS FORSAKEN US.  

 

===

 

Here's hoping we're both wrong and WOM saves the day during the OW (or beyond) if not for preview night. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The fact of the matter is, sometimes people just don't care. No matter how much time and effort you put into a project, if the public isn't interested even after all your efforts, it's best to just take the L and move on. It happened with In the Heights, and it's likely happening here too.

 

Had we gotten this back in 2016, maybe things would be different. It would have been just half a year after Deadpool too.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

I honestly don't even know why this thread exists. It's impossible to track buzz for the last year and a half. Sure, tracking sales is effective for predicting the weekend. But what exactly is that accomplishing? That tells us nothing. BW had a horrible IM and Disney panicked and gave us D+ numbers. Does that mean it bombed? Who the hell knows. ITH had a smaller than expected OW, but gathered critical acclaim. GVK had a good OW, but how much of that was people not having Max yet and just really wanting to go back to the theater? To call any film in 2020/2021 a bomb/success is an impossible task because even if it was, the studios would never admit it.

Tracking thread is doing the job as well as it was doing pre-CoVID. The thread predicted the big opening of GvK when industry expectations were about half. The thread predicted the Demon Slayer overperformance when industry was sort of sleeping on it. The thread was correct abt BW THU and there were enough analysis on how internal multi will be around 6 only. And now, if there wasn't this thread, I bet Deadlines, Varietys would be predicting $40-50M OW for TSS.

 

Regarding films you mentioned. Disney revealing D+ numbers is their own thing. Feige was saying in some event how they need indicators to gauge success of MCU properties on D+. In case of BW they had figure to show. And its not like Disney is first to reveal these numbers. WB reported Canada PVOD numbers for their films when Canada was closed.

 

ITH, I don't think anyone really cared about it here. I think @Eric Quinn was only one to track it. I don't remember.

 

And for the rest of your text. This is thread for tracking the films, their bombing or hitting overall is discussed in other pages. The bomb or big opening are discussed here.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Only 40 tickets sold for my 7pm XD. Under 50 total all Thursday over 6 showings. I’m too depressed to track AMC. 

[Cap]

 

MODERATION:

 

Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.

 

This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here. 
 

If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in question. 
 

The quote button is your friend.  
 

That way hopefully we can not clutter up this thread, and then people can continue to have whatever discussion they want freely elsewhere.

 

Thank you. 
 

 

[Chicago]

Poor Sanjay

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-8	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	8	2	0.67%
		Phoenix	4	6	612	3	0	0.49%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	0	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			14	24	2,881	12	2	0.42%
Free Guy	T-8	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	39	7	0.90%
		Phoenix	5	14	2,264	32	8	1.41%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,961	54	11	2.75%
Free Guy Total			18	58	8,572	125	26	1.46%
Respect	T-8	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	6	0	0.39%
		Phoenix	5	9	1,080	4	2	0.37%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	25	7	1.54%
Respect Total			16	29	4,245	35	9	0.82%
Respect (Fandango Premier)	T-4	Jacksonville	4	4	553	32	5	5.79%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	42	1	63.64%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	80	10	13.22%
Respect (FP) Total			9	9	1,224	154	16	12.58%
Suicide Squad	T-1	Jacksonville	6	28	5,289	305	64	5.77%
		Phoenix	7	31	4,202	356	96	8.47%
		Raleigh	8	27	3,457	297	68	8.59%
Suicide Squad Total			21	86	12,948	958	228	7.40%

 

TSS average up to 3.01m with a pretty good day.  Currently around 44% of F9 and 20% of BW at the same point.  

 

 

Free Guy almost catches JC in day 2 (125 vs 132) which would put it around 2.5m if the comp holds.  

 

The 'sold out' showing for Respect is now showing available with only a few tickets sold.  That premiere is this coming Sunday and is at 75% of where JC was at T-4 (in only 9 showings).  

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-7	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	11	3	0.92%
		Phoenix	4	6	612	3	0	0.49%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	0	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			14	24	2,881	15	3	0.52%
Free Guy	T-7	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	45	6	1.04%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,604	47	15	1.80%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,961	68	14	3.47%
Free Guy Total			19	59	8,912	160	35	1.80%
Respect	T-7	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	12	6	0.78%
		Phoenix	6	10	1,270	7	3	0.55%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	28	3	1.73%
Respect Total			17	30	4,435	47	12	1.06%
Respect (Fandango Premier)	T-3	Jacksonville	4	4	553	39	7	7.05%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	43	1	65.15%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	97	17	16.03%
Respect (FP) Total			9	9	1,224	179	25	14.62%
Suicide Squad	T-0	Jacksonville	6	28	5,289	400	95	7.56%
		Phoenix	7	31	4,202	466	110	11.09%
		Raleigh	8	27	3,346	401	107	11.98%
Suicide Squad Total			21	86	12,837	1,267	312	9.87%

 

TSS just isn't doing enough to push it over the top.  At the same point (preview morning), F9 had racked up 3,057 and BW had 5,791 tickets sold.  Using those comps we get 2.94m from F9 and 2.9m from BW.   I'll do my last count this afternoon before shows start, but this isn't getting my hopes up like I thought it would.  I expanded the chart below to include my afternoon numbers for the comps (1).  I was thinking that the different paths for F9 and BW would lead to a divergence in the multiplier tonight, but after plugging a few possibilities in it appears that they will stay together pretty well.  If we expect the comps to stay at 2.9m, I would expect around 1600 total this afternoon.  1700 would bump it up to 3.11m.

 

 

 

I checked back to when I posted my F9 numbers for T-0 and found that it was my very first post!  It was nearly 2pm EST, but I know I had spent a couple hours getting pivot tables set up and learning how to embed a table on here.  Judging on how it's skewed though, I'd guess that the morning run was done a little later than my normal start time (around 8am EST).   I also checked my afternoon numbers and it looks like they were consistently taken an hour before previews started.  The difference in number of shows is staggering.  TSS (86) is so far behind F9 (151) and BW (227); BW having 5pm shows definitely helped, but I didn't expect there to be that much difference.

 

As for Free Guy, well it passed Jungle Cruise 160-155 and is on pace for 2.78m now.  I remember thinking JC was doing very poorly at this point (and for most of its run), but that was due to having poor comps.  

[el sid]

TSS counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, August 5:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 271 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 363 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 71 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 27 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 35+ (4 showtimes, one unlockable)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 359 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 803 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.929+ (+273 seats).
16% up since yesterday. The sales in Grand Rapids improved the most (on a lower level), so maybe this film is not only a coast thing as I thought.

Ended at 93% of the preview number of Birds of Prey (= 3.7M).
Hobbs & Shaw had in the same 7 theaters on Thurday 2.078 sold tickets for Thursday (93% and = 5.4M; I had the wrong number yesterday, I thought 5.3M but it were 5.8M for H&S back then).
And AQP II had on Thursday 1.582 sold tickets for Thursday (= 5.85M but the shows of AQP started at 5pm).
The comps look quite good but TSS lost ground every day. But for me it's still hard to imagine that the walk-ups will be weaker than those of BoP (the comps show how important the walk-ups were, BoP and H&S were presales-wise on par in my theaters as you can see above).
 

And for Friday, August 6 (1 day to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 282 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 137 (15 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 53 (10 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 59 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 351 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 664 (19 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.560 (+243 seats).
Up 19% since yesterday.
Birds of Prey had in the same 7 theaters 1.664 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday so TSS is at 94%.
F9 had 3.585 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters on Thursday for Friday so TSS is at 43% (= 30.1M OW for TSS).
H&S had 2.465 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday so TSS is at 63% (= 37.8M OW).
And The Conjuring 3 had 1.435 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday which would mean an OW of 26.3M (but this film had no Thursday showtimes and all fans who wanted to see it as soon as possible had to chose the Friday).

So the presales didn't explode and it needs very good walk-ups. What gives me some hope are the experiences in the UK that the sales developed very late: E.g. @SnokesLegs posted this:...but based on what I saw from checking my local Cineworld it didn’t appear to be a particularly presale heavy film. It didn’t really start filling up until a day or two before, and even then I’d say my screening had more walk ups than presales based on how many people I saw in the actual screen.
And when I sporadically looked at some shows at noon (here) it looked terrible, in fact so terrible that I stopped. Almost all of the new sales happened in the last few hours.

Tomorrow I will report the Friday presales in my 7 theaters (counted early enough of course) because I have H&S numbers to compare (means also counted on Friday for Friday).
And I'm glad when this is over.

Edited August 5, 2021 by el sid

[cax16]

TSS has sold 100 seats over 4 showtimes for tonight at my local theatre, the only things I have recently is Spacejam which had 100 seats sold as well over 9 showtimes and Green Knight sold 60 seats over 2 showings. Not the greatest comps lol , oh and JC sold 27 tickets over 3 shows.

Edited August 5, 2021 by cax16

[DAJK]

Let’s just say this is selling awful in Canada

[Menor the Destroyer]

TSS Thursday was at 27552 in MTC2 in my last run (up 7726 since my update last night). I did update significantly earlier than usual so the pace will be inflated relative to other comps, but it's not a bad pace and walkups so far are decent. Nothing crazy to change the film's trajectory but I still think 4 million previews is possible and 3.5 at least should happen. But I also had a decent day yesterday while most other trackers showed awful days so who knows.

[cax16]

26 minutes ago, DAJK said:

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by cax16