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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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43 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think it was for previews, not overall. I have it at 65m 3 day currently.

I'm actually surprised at the success F9 had. Unpopular opinion but everyone saw it as Vins franchise, I always thought Paul was the main draw.

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2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Think this might drop previews from 8m to about 6.5m. New York, Philly, Boston, and Jersey are huge metro areas for this movie with large AAPI populations.

Slow down. They are big but not that big. If NY, PA, NJ, MA entire state have $0 previews, it will still be $7.75M most likely, from last expected $9M.

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7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The subway system is literally shut totally down for the first time since 9/11. It's historic levels bad in NYC and Philly, two major markets for this movie. I bet they close theaters.

Actually that's not the first time since 9/11. This happens every few years. Subways were shut down for Sandy and during a few bad winter storms. It's slowly coming back up. Hopefully everything will be restored by evening. 

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It was devastating last night but better now overall, i'm not sure it will be such a big problem (for the numbers). The travel ban is over already and the rain stopped hours ago.

 

Of course there are the problems caused by the rain which is bad, but i'm not sure will make previews drop from 9M or so to 6M. If it happens tonight than yeah sure, but it was last night and things should start to normalize in most areas by the time previews will start. But obviously anything can happen, let's wait and see.

 

Anyway, i suspect if it make bad impact on previews, multiplier should be helped since people who was supposed to go in previews will go see it friday-monday instead.

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4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Slow down. They are big but not that big. If NY, PA, NJ, MA entire state have $0 previews, it will still be $7.75M most likely, from last expected $9M.

I thought the share coming from those areas was larger for all movies.

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2 minutes ago, Lion Roar said:

Actually that's not the first time since 9/11. This happens every few years. Subways were shut down for Sandy and during a few bad winter storms. It's slowly coming back up. Hopefully everything will be restored by evening. 

Yeah, i just read it's starting to come back, people are on the streets and the weather is good now.

 

The big centers probably will be fine by evening despite some problems. Some isolated areas probably won't have the same lucky, but it will have a very minor impact i suspect.

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3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SC morning @ 65233/437839 880471.65 3239 shows. if I am not wrong F9 finished around 133K. Let us see where SC ends up at. 

 

MTC1 @ 109744/497265 1751331.48 2965 shows. Thinking 180K finish. 

 

SC up to 69175 at MTC2. That pace is anemic for 3 hours on previews day. MTC1 is better at 115369. Still nothing crazy at this point. I guess real action would start closer to 6PM EST.  show count wise this is about 3/4 of BW but big market show count is big enough. 

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3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SC up to 69175 at MTC2. That pace is anemic for 3 hours on previews day. MTC1 is better at 115369. Still nothing crazy at this point. I guess real action would start closer to 6PM EST.  show count wise this is about 3/4 of BW but big market show count is big enough. 

Claystradamus rides again

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I don't think Shang Chi has anything to prove this weekend as far as USA box office is concerned. US BO is doing fine for the medium sized grossers for their potential that have been released in recent months. What we need to see is BIG numbers & the next truly BIG film is 'No Way Home', barring Eternals gathers more hype, releasing on best box office period i.e. XMAS, in normal times would have target of $500M may be even $600M. Now that will be the film to see the true health of exhibition/box office.

 

What we need to see is how is INT box office doing. Eastern world barring Japan is either completely shutdown (SEA, NZ) or open at low levels (India, KOR, Taiwan, AUS, etc.) due to CoVID. China film board just don't seem to care anymore about box office.

 

As for Europe, the market is open and doing steadily but no big film has released. NTTD will be that big film, biggest film for the region to be released since Frozen 2 & TRoS. IMO that will be the next film to check the performance of, not in US but Europe.

 

If studios move films, that has to do with the INT BO & Shang Chi can't be jury for that. NTTD on other hand can tell the state of Europe. Spectre had 38M admits in EU while Skyfall was 42M. 30M would be very least to be expected from NTTD in normal times, will see how it do.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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