The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, Menor said:

125k is probably the high-end finish if it can keep pace with F9 (it was not doing so in the morning but recovered in the afternoon). If it does very badly in night shows and plays like BW it will be 115k. Probably in between, around 120. 

its already at 85082/446940 1138069.03 as shows are starting at east coast. Cant it hit another 40K. I think it can go higher. We should see acceleration at least in markets not affected by Ida. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its already at 85082/446940 1138069.03 as shows are starting at east coast. Cant it hit another 40K. I think it can go higher. We should see acceleration at least in markets not affected by Ida. 

Not sure about that. I would have estimated F9 did around 39k from this point. But late night may see more bumps during non-summer as kids get out of schools. 

Edited September 2, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

23 minutes ago, Menor said:

Factoring in the higher ticket price 7 is less than half of BW. Even if it stopped selling tickets right now it probably wouldn't be far off 7. 

Yeah it’s basically not possible without mass cancellations lol. Just wanted a figure “low” enough to get the point across emphatically — no matter how much effect you think Ida will have (personally, not that much) this thing basically can’t have a preview number which would make doom and gloom make sense!

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	59	8,533	930	215	10.90%
	Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,087	216	15.11%
	Raleigh	8	39	4,408	995	132	22.57%
Shang-Chi Total		21	149	20,134	3,012	563	14.96%

 

Well, this was the first step backward for SC.  Not only did it lose ground on BW for the first time, but it also fell behind F9 in total sales.  Its +23% increase wasn't too far off BW's pace of +24%, but others had much better days on Wednesday (F9 +40%, TSS +32%)

 

Comps

BW - .52x (6.86m)

F9 - .985x (6.99m)

TSS - 2.38x (9.75m)

 

 

Well, Fandango stopped letting me look at more than one theater unless I clear my cache 🙄.  Ended up having to go through the theater's sites to do the T-1 hour and I'm not very happy about it.  Very painful hour of tracking.

 

Alright, now to the results - all taken one hour before previews started.  New sales is since the Thursday morning run.

 

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Late	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
	F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	47	8,312	1,155	302	13.90%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,498	1,150	188	13.53%
		Raleigh	8	46	4,985	1,531	289	30.71%
	F9: The Fast Saga Total		21	151	21,795	3,836	779	17.60%
	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
	Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	30	5,373	665	265	12.38%
		Phoenix	7	31	4,202	648	182	15.42%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,464	645	244	18.62%
	Suicide Squad Total		21	90	13,039	1,958	691	15.02%

 

As you can see, pretty good sales today as SC finishes ahead of F9 in tickets sold and % of seats sold.  Pretty interesting that SC and F9 ended up with the same number of shows in these three markets.  

 

Comps

BW - .556x (7.35m)

F9 - 1.068x (7.59m)

TSS - 2.09x (8.58m)

 

SC finishes at 58% of BW in total $ from these markets (94k to 55k).

 

I had been hovering in the mid 7's preview until about three days ago when it looked like sales were picking up.  After seeing where we ended up, I think 8m is a safe guess for tonight.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Well, Fandango stopped letting me look at more than one theater unless I clear my cache 🙄.  

 

Yeah I am familiar with Fandango's BS. One time I tried to scrape Fandango and was blocked within 30 minutes. But at least you got a nice surprise with those sales. I didn't expect it to finish ahead of F9 after yesterday. 

[TalismanRing]

49 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Shang-Chi	190/1402	(5pm)	234/1402	(5pm)	331/1402	(5pm)	511/1402	(5pm)		6:00 PM
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)			$13.2m	5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)	$4.2m	7:00 PM

 

54% jump. Early shows are filling up.  They should have added another show or two.  I don't know how lesser amt of preview showings/seats will impact walk up business

 

COMPS

Shazam!: $16.12
X-Men:DP - $9.39m
BOP: $12.31m
TSS: $14m
Joker: $8.94m

 

I don't have BW's Thur number but as of Wed it was only 60% of Joker (ended up 100k apart in previews) while SC is 67% on Thursday. 

 

Anyhow these avg out to about $12m even when I take away the high and low.

 

Again this theater serves neighborhoods that skew far more Asian American than the avg in America (15%+ & 35%+ vs 5.7%).  Though that's spread among Chinese, Korean, Indian, Philippines etc.   But even if I dock it 20% (which is too high IMO) that would mean about $9.6m

 

And just added two more screens, 512 more seats

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, The Dark Shape said:

 

'From the filmmaker who brought you "Candyman will open under $10m..."'

Yeah, I had it at 18M OW for long now. And mentioned 20M as likely after reactions and reviews showed up. 

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Well, Fandango stopped letting me look at more than one theater unless I clear my cache 🙄.  Ended up having to go through the theater's sites to do the T-1 hour and I'm not very happy about it.  Very painful hour of tracking

Let me guess.

 

"Something went wrong with your order, please try again" button with a blank-ish screen when it tried to pull up a seat map? Or something like that as I forget the exact wording.

 

I started getting hit by that a couple of days ago, but it only lasted for a couple of minutes at first, but last night I got hit by a two-by-four with it.  Finally resorted to tracking corp sites.  Got hit with it again this morning after about 25 or 30 showings checked in rapid order so I said "Screw you, Fandango" and hit up the corp sites.

 

Luckily I figured out keyboard shortcut terms for all of them so it only added a short amount of time to the track.  Ultra annoying though, yes.

 

This is something brand new for what it's worth.  It's obviously some sort of flood control measure, as it's almost certainly tied to an timed cookie and not an IP ban like @Menor got back in the day.

 

Hopefully this isn't gonna be an ongoing thing, but I ain't exactly hopeful. 😕 

Edited September 2, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

If it is indeed a cookie, I'm tempted to try to block all cookies from Fandango and see if that does the job.  Loathe to do that though, as I'm logged into Fandango so I can easily access my list of saved theaters and I don't want to mess with my log-in status.

 

Despite my pessimism, I do hope that they'll only pull this stunt during moments of high traffic on their servers.  It'll be a pain for T-1 and T-0 tracks, but at least that wouldn't fuck over all of the other tracking days.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

And you said there will not be M word.

[cax16]

52m

 

 

[keysersoze123]

I dont see any impact due to Ida from numbers perspective so far. Let us see where things go. I take a snapshot around 8PM PST. If I have throw in a guess I would say low 9s at the moment. Fantastic number overall. 

[ThomasNicole]

With $9M it could get $ 70M 3-day,  that would be incredible, fingers crossed.

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, cax16 said:

52m

 

 

I feel like this has gotta be @Shawn and co recognizing professional incentives to herd rather than a serious best guess forecast. No disrespect meant but how are you possibly getting 45 from these sales. It’s literally an excellent range for the Sat cume.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Jamiem]

4 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I feel like this has gotta be @Shawn and co recognizing professional incentives to herd rather than a serious beat guess forecast. No disrespect meant but how are you possibly getting 45 from these sales. It’s literally an excellent range for the Sat cume.

Could it be previous Labour Day Weekend comps weighing things down. It is unprecedented that a movie opens this big during this time of the year. 

 

I obviously agree that the range seems very low. 

Edited September 2, 2021 by Jamiem

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont see any impact due to Ida from numbers perspective so far. Let us see where things go. I take a snapshot around 8PM PST. If I have throw in a guess I would say low 9s at the moment. Fantastic number overall. 

If MTC1 is normal, I agree. MTC2 is on pace for that.

[Eric Duncan]

20 hours ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	93	3239	16255	16.16%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 612

 

Comp

1.282x of F9 T-1 (9.1M)

0.630x of Black Widow T-1 (8.31M)

2.961x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (12.14M)

 

There's another showing marked as a sellout, but last I checked the showing only sold 3 tickets beforehand, so it might be a glitch, though we'll see what happens tomorrow. The other two sellouts sold substantially more, so they seem legit. Overall a pretty decent day, though I feel like Ida diminished sales quite a bit, because here in my area and adjacent ones, shit is rough. I'm honestly amazed I was able to get home from work in that storm.

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	76	4751	14229	33.39%

 

Total Showings LOST Today: 17

Total Seats LOST Today: 2,026

Total Sellouts Added Today: 5

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,512

 

Comp

1.048x of F9 (7.44M)

0.626x of Black Widow (8.26M)

2.337x of The Suicide Squad (9.58M)

 

So yeah, the big issue, as somebody who dealt with the Noreaster, is that three different theaters were closed for the day, or at least seemed to. If you try and buy a ticket for them, you are unable to, which signals to me they weren't open at all. And while you can argue a lot of the sellouts and sales were just given to other theaters...losing three theaters is not a good thing, though I'm sure this is just an underindex. Either way, I do think the storm and floods will be an issue, at least for the first couple days of the weekend.

[Ronin46]

Box Office Report has it at 72M for the 4 day.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

In a prelim run at CA Harkins at 16:30.

 

Normal - 1839/7405 (+629)

Cine 1 - 907/1708 (+144)

 

Total - 2746

 

Probably 3500-3800 final, let's see how the walk-ins are.

 

I will take a "first shows" run at 18:00 PST.

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/1/2021 at 4:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 2472(+351)/21146(+1572) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.55M [4978(+591)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 6.86M

Fast 9 comp: 12.12M

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-0 days Thursday: 4255(+1783)/21408(+262) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.78M [8279(+3301)]

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 7.10M

 

Yeah I think it's underperforming here. I also think that Black Widow may have overperformed with how big the last day jump was. Probably just ignore these comps