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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

Posted
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Posted
2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Looks like we might get our first hints of tracking for Eternals, Matrix, No Way Home, etc here. @Shawn are you guys gonna be talking individual movies or just the market in general?

Still being planned out. Likely a mix of both. :)

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

NTTD counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, October 7 (8 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 127 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 99 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 19 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 28 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 432 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 431 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.140.

Jumped 7% since yesterday. Not too bad, not too good. No review bump so far.

Venom 2 counted today at 10am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 471 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 367 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 139 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 20 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 162+ (11 showtimes, 1 Sell Out report. Could be true because the other evening shows also look crowded)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 518 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 821 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.498+.


Comps: TSS (4.1M from previews) had also on Wednesday of its release week 1.656 sold tickets which would mean 6.2M for Venom 2.

SC had on Wednesday of its release week 3.166 sold tickets (8.8M from previews) = 7M (6.95M) for Venom 2.
And AQP II had on the same day 1.209 sold tickets = 10M (9.95M).
So at the moment around 8M in previews in my comps. That's quite good of course but still a bit lower than the numbers of other members. But TSS and SC both had not the biggest last day jumps (14.5% and 16%) and Venom 2 is according to the reports here a film with strong jumps over the last days. So it's very well possible that my comps look better tomorrow.
Additionally, Venom 2 is - judging from my samples - for sure not a coasts-only-movie; e.g. TSS's presales in Miami and between the coasts just never improved (TSS had on the same day 34 sold tickets in Michigan and 21 in Arizona) whereas Venom 2 looks very solid in (almost) all of my AMCs.

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

https://deadline.com/2021/09/venom-let-there-be-carnage-opening-weekend-box-office-preview-1234846403/

 

Quote

There’s a great vibe out there about moviegoing right now –believe it– and October is just the beginning. While we had event films during the summer, we’ve got ’em all jammed packed in the next month, kicking off with Sony’s long-awaited Venom: Let There Be Carnage on Friday stateside, followed by MGM/United Artist Releasing’s No Time to Die on Oct. 8, Universal/Blumhouse/Miramax’s Halloween Kills on Oct. 15, and Warner Bros./Legendary’s Dune on Oct. 22.

 

Sony is conservatively estimating $40M over 3-days at 4,200 locations, including Imax and Premium Large Format, comping to A Quiet Place 2 ($47.5M), however, tracking and leading exhibitors have them in the $60M+ range at the U.S. and Canadian box office. A confidence prevails, as it should. I was at a fan screening of Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage Monday night at the Universal Citywalk Imax. There wasn’t an empty seat in the house and the movie played like gangbusters to great cheers with fans dressed in tow. Unlike the clunkiness of the first 2018 movie, which totally delivered...whatever Venom 2 opens to, it’s certain to play and play even if it’s losing Imax screens to No Time to Die the following weekend. Fans will be very happy.

 

Sony’s concern stateside lies in how big the actual theatrical marketplace is at this point in time during Covid: There’s only been a few times during the summer when we’ve actually been above or at 2019 weekend levels, and there’s two other wide entries this weekend, however, demo-wise they’re not really a threat, and both available in homes: MGM/UAR/Bron’s Addams Family 2 which is looking at moms and young girls with a hopeful teens 3-day B.O. at 4,207 locations and a $19.99 48-hour PVOD availability at home, and Warner Bros’ The Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark available on HBO Max and 3,180 theaters, expected to do in the single digits. Look for that movie to really pop on HBO Max given that it’s based on a popular HBO series, duh.

 

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Menor said:

60 million is definitely a lowball but I was hoping for a more classic Deadline lowball to frame with the Shang-Chi one. 

"we think that a weekend that can match the first movies 5 weekend of 7,8mill , would be a big win for this movie''

Edited by john2000
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted

NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Start
Venom 2 (-1 week) 67/2766 (8pm) 73/2766 (8pm) 80/2766 (6pm) 88/2766 (9pm)   4:00 PM
Venom 2 131/2766 (5:45pm) 161/2766 (9pm) 186/3021 (5pm)       4:00 PM
Bond (-1 week) 23/1154 (5:45pm) 24/1154 (9pm) 24/1409 (5pm)       6:00 PM
Shang-Chi (-1 week) 78/1402 (4pm) 112/1402 (8pm) 116/1402 (6pm) 125/1402 (6:45pm)   6:00 PM
Shang-Chi 190/1402 (5pm) 234/1402 (5pm) 331/1402 (5pm) 511/1402 (5pm) $8.8m 6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week) 104/2766 (9am) 172/2766 (4:30pm)     217/3536 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
IT Part 2 147/2764 (9am)     239/2764 (7:10pm)     $10.5m 5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Birds Of Prey 71/1844 (5pm) 84/1844 (7:30pm) 106/1844 (7:45pm) 166/1844 (5pm) $4m 6:00 PM
Black Widow 239/3584 (5pm)     326/3584 (5pm) 498/3584 (4pm) $13.2m 5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad 52/1242 (6pm) 58/1242 (6pm) 79/1242 (6pm) 153/1242 (6:15pm) $4.2m 7:00 PM

 

 

Venom added a screen, Adams Family lost one.   Small Venom bump for  Wed.  AF added 1 ticket  (9/771)

 

Bond also added a screen but no ticket change/review bump

 

VENOM COMPS:

 

X-Men:DP - $4.5m
Joker: $4.56m
SC: $4.95m
H&S: $5.9m
BOP: $7.02m
BW:  $7.53m
Zombie 2: $8.15m
It 2: $8.17m
TSS: $9.8m

 

Avg =: $6.71

 

Joker, SC and X-Men were all very pre-sale heavy for previews

 

Minus them:  Avg= $7.76m

 

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Dune goes on sale Monday night.  No early shows.  

 

Fuck off, Warner Bros.  

 

lol

 

---

 

Obviously they saw Eric's post last night about taking four hours for his various tracking reports and decided to take pity on him. :sadno:

 

FWIW, showtimes are already showing up for the 22nd, greyed out naturally.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2021 at 4:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 423 2151 19.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 236 2637 8.95%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1950 429 26448 7.37% 15 152

 

Showings added: 13

Seats added: 849

 

AMCs sold 1176
Cinemarks sold 393
Regals sold 211
Harkins sold 170

 

Shang-Chi comp: 8.31M

Black Widow comp: 7.35M

 

Absolutely exploding... Even if the pace stays flat, it'll pass SC tomorrow.

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 543 2295 23.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 295 2637 11.19%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2502 552 27339 9.15% 15 159

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 891

 

AMCs sold 1470
Cinemarks sold 526
Regals sold 286
Harkins sold 220

 

Shang-Chi comp: 9.26M

Black Widow comp: 8.12M

 

Basically even with Black Widow in sales today. Way ahead of Shang-Chi.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2021 at 4:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday: 1413(+364)/23176(+1088) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 5.86M

Black Widow comp: 4.25M

 

T-3 days Friday: 1400(+347)/49787(+1979) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 16.10M

Black Widow comp: 9.40M

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 1830(+417)/23176 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.51M

Black Widow comp: 4.85M

 

T-2 days Friday: 1862(+462)/49466(-321) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 17.16M

Black Widow comp: 10.30M

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2021 at 4:53 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 108 1690 6.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 142 1610 8.82%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
546 38 16853 3.24% 15 97

 

AMCs sold 413
Cinemarks sold 37
Regals sold 92
Harkins 4

 

Wednesday:

Total 115 1429

 

Fast 9 comp: 6.12M

 

No Suicide Squad comp today

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 124 1690 7.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 156 1610 9.69%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
638 92 18005 3.54% 15 105

 

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 1152

 

AMCs sold 472
Cinemarks sold 48
Regals sold 114
Harkins 4

 

Wednesday:

Total 162 1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.19M

Fast 9 comp: 6.67M

 

Really nice review bump.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2021 at 5:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-8 days Wednesday: 278(+23)/2115 in 4 theaters

 

T-9 days Thursday: 669(+50)/20337(+167) in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 5.83M

Black Widow comp: 3.53M

 

T-10 days Friday: 1145(+146)/36586(-202) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 34.50M

Black Widow comp: 16.81M

 

Messed up yesterday's Shang-Chi Thursday comp

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-7 days Wednesday: 335(+57)/2115 in 4 theaters

 

T-8 days Thursday: 783(+114)/20337 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.20M

Black Widow comp: 3.86M

 

T-9 days Friday: 1262(+117)/36586 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 34.42M

Black Widow comp: 16.83M

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted

MTC2

 

Many Saints

Friday

Shows: 1305 (+15)

Tickets Sold: 7209/136894 (+1346)

 

Same story as before.

 

Addams Family 2

Thursday

Shows: 1512 (+29)

Tickets Sold: 4535/162241 (+1212)

 

JC comp: 1.02 million

 

Friday

Shows: 2880 (+79)

Tickets Sold: 14656/320388 (+4289)

 

JC comp: 6.02 million

 

Comp increases are not crazy. Will tamp down my expectations here especially given lack of PLFs that Charlie pointed out yesterday, still think 20 is doable with good walkups. 

 

 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Menor said:

60 million is definitely a lowball but I was hoping for a more classic Deadline lowball to frame with the Shang-Chi one. 

Both of them weren't lowballing. That's what the industry traditional tracking have them at. Shang Chi was shock for them.

 

That's why I stopped paying attention to industry tracking. They will never be as accurate as this thread.

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