The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

18 minutes ago, mulderfox said:

Sorry for my part then. I just saw a lot of negativity from you everywhere on this. It hasn't even opened yet. It has 3 weeks to rake in some good cash

I agree. That’s why in most of my posts I make it a point that I’m talking about how things look for it right now and that things can always change. Another thing is that I guess I’ve been spoiled with most CBM opening huge (even ones without good reviews) that I just expected Shazam to be the same in the sense that it got really good reviews, audiences liked it and that buzz would carry over to its OW (I’m not the only poster who has felt this way mind you). *Which again it very well could still OR it could develop solid legs* but I’m just talking about where it stands right now. 

 

ETA: id probably expect a preview number of 4.5-5M 

Edited April 4, 2019 by Nova

[TwoMisfits]

On 3/28/2019 at 4:17 PM, TwoMisfits said:

For my locals, Dumbo better be a very big walk up movie if it wants a decent "Disney-esque family movie" preview number...

 

Right now, it's sold 40/525 2d seats, and 2/175 3d seats tonight - that's not good for Disney.

 

My Regal is a little better with 66/270 2d seats sold, and 8/90 3d seats sold for tonight.

 

We are not on Spring Break, but these figures are pretty middling for a normal family movie...especially once which got double screened at both theaters...

Decided to get my presales from almost the same time (okay this is almost 2 hours earlier)...compared to the Disney flick which underperfomed in my area, Shazam is doing better tonight...compared to a super, it's not...here's to Shazam acting like a Disney live action family movie vs a supers movie - c'mon, a girl can dream:)...

 

1st local - Cinemark - 116/800 2d seats (7pms are best), 8/175 3d seats (shouldn't have bothered) for 124/975 - so, that's sucky for a super, but in good news, more than Dumbo ended the night at (and 82 more than Dumbo had now)...

 

2nd local - Regal - 149/375 2d seats (7pm is almost sold out), and 42/70 3d seats for 191/445 - this is also sucky for a super here, but has also outsold Dumbo for the night, and 117 more than Dumbo had now...

 

So, is this a story of the family super breaking out over the weekend, or is it giving the big red flag to a subpar weekend?  Well, I said last weekend in the casino that I had Shazam over Dumbo, and these numbers make me stick with that.  I'm also still staying in my $60M+ camp that I predicted weeks ago, BUT I'm not gonna go any higher...I'd say Aquaman's number is a likely ceiling and I'd expect $5-$10M less for the weekend (with the early previews keeping the BO over the $60M point)...

Edited April 4, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[FlashMaster659]

Since everybody else is doing it, I'm gonna do a Thursday night breakdown of my big AMC.

 

Opening Night Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 164/167 (98.2%)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

10:45 PM - 197/203 (97.0%)

2:45 AM - 193/203 (95.1%)

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

7:00 PM - 60/63 (95.2%)

7:30 PM - 53/61 (86.9%)

7:45 PM - 57/63 (90.5%)

11:15 PM - 48/63 (76.2%)

11:45 PM - 46/61 (75.4%)

12:00 AM - 43/63 (68.3%)

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM - 65/78 (83.3%)

6:30 PM - 64/78 (82.1%)

8:00 PM - 47/63 (74.6%)

8:30 PM - 46/60 (76.7%)

10:15 PM - 58/78 (74.4%)

10:45 PM - 56/78 (71.8%)

12:15 AM - 31/63 (49.2%)

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 87/114 (76.3%)

6:45 PM - 38/55 (69.1%)

7:15 PM - 32/44 (72.7%)

7:45 PM - 60/79 (75.9%)

8:15 PM - 87/114 (76.3%)

9:15 PM - 135/167 (80.8%)

10:30 PM - 79/114 (69.3%)

11:15 PM - 30/55 (54.5%)

11:30 PM - 26/44 (59.1%)

12:00 AM - 21/79 (26.6%)

12:30 AM - 19/114 (16.7%)

1:30 AM - 18/167 (10.8%)

2:45 AM - 19/114 (16.7%)

 

Standard 2D

 

6:00 PM (1) - 71/79 (89.9%)

6:00 PM (2) - 43/45 (95.6%)

6:30 PM - 51/55 (92.7%)

8:00 PM - 40/44 (90.9%)

8:30 PM - 40/45 (88.9%)

8:45 PM - 39/44 (88.6%)

9:00 PM - 42/48 (87.5%)

9:15 PM - 36/44 (81.8%)

9:30 PM - 42/49 (85.7%)

9:45 PM - 37/44 (84.1%)

10:00 PM - 37/45 (82.2%)

10:15 PM - 64/79 (81.0%)

10:45 PM - 44/55 (80.0%)

11:00 PM - 182/217 (83.9%)

11:30 PM - 141/167 (84.4%)

12:15 AM - 30/44 (68.2%)

12:45 AM - 27/45 (60.0%)

1:00 AM - 28/44 (63.6%)

1:15 AM - 35/48 (72.9%)

1:30 AM - 29/44 (65.9%)

1:45 AM - 31/49 (63.3%)

2:00 AM - 26/44 (59.1%)

2:15 AM - 19/45 (42.2%)

2:30 AM - 48/79 (60.8%)

 

Total

 

3061/4207 (72.8%)

Edited April 4, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

2897/4040 (71.7%)

Hmmm.  Where have I seen that percentage before?

 

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	9	212	6394	22476	71.55%

 

Good sign that Sacto might not be over-performing.   👍

 

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Decided to get my presales from almost the same time (okay this is almost 2 hours earlier)...compared to the Disney flick which underperfomed in my area, Shazam is doing better tonight...compared to a super, it's not...here's to Shazam acting like a Disney live action family movie vs a supers movie - c'mon, a girl can dream:)...

 

1st local - Cinemark - 116/800 2d seats (7pms are best), 8/175 3d seats (shouldn't have bothered) for 124/975 - so, that's sucky for a super, but in good news, more than Dumbo ended the night at (and 82 more than Dumbo had now)...

 

2nd local - Regal - 149/375 2d seats (7pm is almost sold out), and 42/70 3d seats for 191/445 - this is also sucky for a super here, but has also outsold Dumbo for the night, and 117 more than Dumbo had now...

 

So, is this a story of the family super breaking out over the weekend, or is it giving the big red flag to a subpar weekend?  Well, I said last weekend in the casino that I had Shazam over Dumbo, and these numbers make me stick with that.  I'm also still staying in my $60M+ camp that I predicted weeks ago, BUT I'm not gonna go any higher...I'd say Aquaman's number is a likely ceiling and I'd expect $5-$10M less for the weekend (with the early previews keeping the BO over the $60M point)...

 

Dumbo had a 17.69  preview to o/w multi

 

Shazam! is not doing that.  It might not do half (8.86x) - especially with a 4pm  start time. -  so it probably needs at least double the previews ($5.2m+) to do the same $46m.

 

Early previews won't be counted toward the o/w

[Tom Swelling]

2 hours ago, Matthew said:

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

 

This is for 24hr.

Cheers mate! 

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Hmmm.  Where have I seen that percentage before?

 

 

Good sign that Sacto might not be over-performing.   👍

 

Early yesterday mine was at
2721 /3994 = 68.12%

 

[after I added the Fan Event which I missed].

 

I'll try to do a check later tonight

Edited April 4, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

2019-04-04 19:00:36.798265 UTC
1	48.5%	Avengers: Endgame
2	14.3%	Shazam!
3	8.9%	Dumbo
4	5.9%	Us
5	5.2%	Pet Sematary

 

Just popped into the Top Five over at MT.

[XXR vs XXR]

22 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Since everybody else is doing it, I'm gonna do a Thursday night breakdown of my big AMC.

 

Dolby Cinema

 

10:45 PM - 197/203 (97.0%)

2:45 AM - 193/203 (95.1%)

 

2D Dine-In Full Service

 

7:00 PM - 60/63 (95.2%)

7:30 PM - 53/61 (86.9%)

7:45 PM - 57/63 (90.5%)

11:15 PM - 48/63 (76.2%)

11:45 PM - 46/61 (75.4%)

12:00 AM - 43/63 (68.3%)

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:00 PM - 65/78 (83.3%)

6:30 PM - 64/78 (82.1%)

8:00 PM - 47/63 (74.6%)

8:30 PM - 46/60 (76.7%)

10:15 PM - 58/78 (74.4%)

10:45 PM - 56/78 (71.8%)

12:15 AM - 31/63 (49.2%)

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 87/114 (76.3%)

6:45 PM - 38/55 (69.1%)

7:15 PM - 32/44 (72.7%)

7:45 PM - 60/79 (75.9%)

8:15 PM - 87/114 (76.3%)

9:15 PM - 135/167 (80.8%)

10:30 PM - 79/114 (69.3%)

11:15 PM - 30/55 (54.5%)

11:30 PM - 26/44 (59.1%)

12:00 AM - 21/79 (26.6%)

12:30 AM - 19/114 (16.7%)

1:30 AM - 18/167 (10.8%)

2:45 AM - 19/114 (16.7%)

 

Standard 2D

 

6:00 PM (1) - 71/79 (89.9%)

6:00 PM (2) - 43/45 (95.6%)

6:30 PM - 51/55 (92.7%)

8:00 PM - 40/44 (90.9%)

8:30 PM - 40/45 (88.9%)

8:45 PM - 39/44 (88.6%)

9:00 PM - 42/48 (87.5%)

9:15 PM - 36/44 (81.8%)

9:30 PM - 42/49 (85.7%)

9:45 PM - 37/44 (84.1%)

10:00 PM - 37/45 (82.2%)

10:15 PM - 64/79 (81.0%)

10:45 PM - 44/55 (80.0%)

11:00 PM - 182/217 (83.9%)

11:30 PM - 141/167 (84.4%)

12:15 AM - 30/44 (68.2%)

12:45 AM - 27/45 (60.0%)

1:00 AM - 28/44 (63.6%)

1:15 AM - 35/48 (72.9%)

1:30 AM - 29/44 (65.9%)

1:45 AM - 31/49 (63.3%)

2:00 AM - 26/44 (59.1%)

2:15 AM - 19/45 (42.2%)

2:30 AM - 48/79 (60.8%)

 

Total

 

2897/4040 (71.7%)

 

Shazam is selling pretty well at that theater....

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Early yesterday mine was at
2721 /3161 = 68.12%

 

[after I added the Fan Event which I missed].

 

I'll try to do a check later tonight

Which scans fairly well with my late Tue of 69%.   Within the ballpark range, at least. 👍

[Cap]

Shazam - Thursday Previews Cinemagic Chain, T-1 Hour To Showtime.

 

IMAX Theater

4:10 IMAX - 4/144

7:05 IMAX - 24/144

10:10 IMAX - 3/144

 

4:30PM STD 1/107

7:30PM STD 14/107

9:00PM STD 0/66

 

46/712 [6.46%]

 

Recliners

4:00PM 15/50

6:50PM 17/50

9:40PM 3/50

 

35/150 [23.33%]

 

Stadium

6:30PM 0/177

9:20PM 0/177

 

0/354 [0%]

 

Total: 81/1216 [6.66%]

 

Cinemagic is an Atom partner.  They are currently running a 3 Tickets for $20 deal for Shazam OW.

[Brainbug]

Just now, captainwondyful said:

 

Total: 81/1216 [6.66%]

 

 

Is this ... is this some sort of sign or warning?

[mulderfox]

17 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Dumbo had a 17.69  preview to o/w multi

 

Shazam! is not doing that.  It might not do half (8.86x) - especially with a 4pm  start time. -  so it probably needs at least double the previews ($5.2m+) to do the same $46m.

 

Early previews won't be counted toward the o/w

So am i reading this right tracking has it as $45+ $50. You think it will open lower than Dumbo ?

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

Total: 81/1216 [6.66%]

 

Cinemagic is an Atom partner.  They are currently running a 3 Tickets for $20 deal for Shazam OW.

Not exactly an auspicious omen. 

 

Neither is the low sales, for that matter.

[Matthew]

My predictions for this weekend after analyzing the data you all have provided:

 

Shazam : 43-47M

 

Pet Sematary : 27-30M

 

Dumbo : 25M

 

Us : 17M

 

CM : 12M

 

 

Note: If Shazam or Pet Sematary overperform than Captain Marvel and US will decline. 

[Lordmandeep]

wait endgame is still out selling Shazam on opening day ! 😖

[Rorschach]

Shazam! - Thursday night showings @ Rave Cinemas Davenport 18 IMAX

 

IMAX 2D

4:00 - 16/387

7:05 - 39/387

10:15 - 5/387

 

Real D 3D

7:30 - 4/86

10:45 - 0/86

 

2D

4:55 - 48/135

8:00 - 49/135

11:15 - 6/135

 

167/1,738 (9.61% of all seats sold)

 

Pet Sematary - Thursday night showings @ Rave Cinemas Davenport 18 IMAX

 

7:00 - 46/78

9:40 - 11/78

 

57/156 (36.54% of all seats sold)

[Cap]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Is this ... is this some sort of sign or warning?

Both, probably.

 

If this cracks 50M, I would be happy.

 

I'm going to proceed with caution here, but I don't see how Walk-Ups save Shazam the way they did with say Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.  JWFK didn't have to deal with another film, with basically the same target demos, sucking up all the air from the theater.  We also should consider that maybe after already spending $10 to $25 on tickets  -- depending on one's local -- someone might skip a movie this weekend due to their entertainment budget for that week's capped. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

wait endgame is still out selling Shazam on opening day ! 😖

TBF, over the last 24 hours it's outselling the rest of the movies combined

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

wait endgame is still out selling Shazam on opening day ! 😖

Well it comes out in 21 days, so naturally the demand is high right now