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Thursday Numbers: 4.5 M BAYWATCH

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36 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

If Baywatch and Pirates 5 both underperform, at least June 2017 is looking strong and well-rounded.

 

  1. Wonder Woman looks to be in prime position to be the first major breakout hit this year (possible $125 million+ OW) since Alien and Pirates 5 aren't wowing audiences and Captain Underpants may get a $30-40 million OW solely by being the first major kids movie since March 31st.
  2. The Mummy should at least do ID42 numbers if it's not awful. Add in OS and it'll at least be enough not to be a bomb.
  3. Cars 3 should improve on Cars 2 since early screenings are pointing to it being the best film of the series while both All Eyez on Me and Rough Night have a lot of sleeper hit potential.
  4. Transformers 5 should ride the July 4th holiday to $150-170 million DOM - considering its huge appeal OS, that'll still result in the $750 million+ WW necessary for a 6th film to get the greenlight.
  5. While they'll make most of their money in July, Despicable Me 3 should at least come close to Minions and finish above the original. $275-325 million DOM is a solid finish while The House could either bomb hard or be the first comedy to do $100 million DOM this summer. Baby Driver is niche, so Nice Guys numbers are about where I expect it to go.

 

 

I think it's possible all of those movies underperform even to lowered expectations. Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers are all destined to NOT breakout. DM3 should do pretty well and WW who really knows at this point although tracking has it decently under your target of $130m OW. 

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44 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I am not sure why but Wonder Woman feels a little more walk up driven than ss.

Suicide was sold as a YA movie. WW can have some strong family audience as well.

 

Suicide Squad was sold as YA? :winomg:

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Just now, Lestranger said:

Did I miss something? Did new tracking come out for WW yesterday? How did the conversation go from 65mil to over 100mil ow?

Latest tracking from box office pro had it at $90M+. Also a couple days ago it was reported that it's presales are about 78% of where SS was at the same point. So we are all assuming that $100M is the baseline now 

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Just now, baumer said:

They sure are taking a long time to report Pirates the Caribbeans number

 

Either Disney has fallen back on how great the number is or looking in despair at how bad it is.

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