DUNKIRK WEEKEND THREAD | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS | Official estimates Dunkirk 50.5M, GT 30.3M, SMH 22M, Apes 20.4M, Val 17M | Wonder Woman is the new summer champ with 389M total | Summer Sale is Live!

[Mojoguy]

With better Sunday drop

SMH weekend

6M (Fri)
7.8M (Sat 30% jump)
5.85M (Sun 25% fall)

19.65M weekend (56% weekend drop)

[grey ghost]

Gotta wait till August to see Apes, Baby Driver and Valerian.

 

Might see if Dunkirk is really the second coming it's supposed to be.

 

Broke af atm.

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

Would a 6-million Friday lead to just 19 million? I am just curious. How do you see the three-day frame ending?

The absolute low end (assuming $6M) using last weekends rises and drops is about $19.5M. The high end is about $21M.

[YM!]

Also Dunkirk was perfection. I hope it lets it out to $200M.

[Damianport1]

So Apes with 22M on friday made 56M. Dunkirk will be more frontloaded so no way it will make more. probably 52-54?

[TheMovieman]

2 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

So Apes with 22M on friday made 56M. Dunkirk will be more frontloaded so no way it will make more. probably 52-54?

Um, why would Dunkirk be more frontloaded than the third movie of a franchise?

[Zakiyyah6]

We don't know how Dunkirk will play out during the weekend. It could be more frontloaded than apes and it could be less frontloaded. Hard to tell because some films seem headed one way and then have great Sat to Sun drops. Also that 22mil number could easily increase.

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, TheMovieman said:

Um, why would Dunkirk be more frontloaded than the third movie of a franchise?

 

More frontloaded from previews to OD, but I expect it should get pretty close to matching Apes at least

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, TheMovieman said:

Um, why would Dunkirk be more frontloaded than the third movie of a franchise?

 

I'm curious to see how the Sunday drop goes. Apes dropped 23% last Sunday. 

 

TDK - 8.5%

Inception - 11.8%

TDKR - 10.5%

[WrathOfHan]

Audience score update:

 

Dunkirk: 88%

Girls Trip: 80%

Valerian: 66%

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I'm curious to see how the Sunday drop goes. Apes dropped 23% last Sunday. 

 

TDK - 8.5%

Inception - 11.8%

TDKR - 10.5%

 

Inception had insane word of mouth. That Sunday is pretty much unheard of for a 60mil opener.  TDK and TDKR had spillover. I expect Dunkirk to have a pretty similar Sunday to Apes.

[MrPink]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Audience score update:

 

Dunkirk: 88%

Girls Trip: 80%

Valerian: 66%

 

If I had to guess Dunkirk finishes a few points below Interstellar's audience score around 82-83?

[ZeeSoh]

20 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

True.

Any non-MCU superhero film that behaved the utterly mediocre way that SM:H has would have been crucified and mocked for "underperforming." Like someone else mentioned; it is not an impressive run; why should people pretend that it is? 

 

 

 

 Logan. Same legs, not crucified. 

[GambitPool]

24 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What kind of legs are we expecting now? I figured last weekend it probably would not be able to match Dawn's 2.87 multiplier. But seems it might be even more frontloaded than we were thinking. Sad to watch that play out because Matt Reeves did a great job. The movie deserves a bigger audience. 

With the potentially huge drop this weekend, I don't even know if it can reach a 2.5 multi. It's final domestic gross might be around 130-135 million. 

 

I agree. This film should have a bigger audience, but it's the type of film that rarely gets one. Personally I find the "dark and depressing" comments a little over-blown. To me, it wasn't as dark and depressing as Logan. Now I do find War very slow and methodical. 

Edited July 22, 2017 by GambitPool

[excel1]

51 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I don't even think Spielberg would get this kind of project greenlit. Cannot believe WB greenlit a Memento-esque structure with no DiCaprio type of star and almost no exposition on $150m budget. And then agreed to market the thing like a franchise tentpole. It doesn't seem the studio meddled one bit on this project, which is crazy given the risk. 

The digital age has transformed what constitutes a "draw" now. Artsy folks have a platform on the internet which didn't exist in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s where the box office draws were really just the people we saw in tabloids and magazines. The Dark Knight made Chris Nolan god to most millennials, who dominate the market now and will only grow in size. Cozying up with Nolan is the same as cozying up with Speilberg in the late 70s or Cameron in the late 80s, knowing that you will ride their wave of popularity in the future.

 

If this means anything, it is REALLY means that they have to get Nolan involved with pre-existing source material. That's when things will really go bonkers.

 

WB likely intends to purchase Bond when the right are available. I would guess part of their master plan is purchasing the series and giving Nolan the full control keys to the first post-Craig Bond film and hoping he makes another $1b+ per film trilogy for them. Fully funding passion projects like Dunkirk is merely a means to that end.

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

We don't know how Dunkirk will play out during the weekend. It could be more frontloaded than apes and it could be less frontloaded. Hard to tell because some films seem headed one way and then have great Sat to Sun drops. Also that 22mil number could easily increase.

 

Maybe it will play out like Baby Driver.

 

Another star director film with over 90% on RT.

[Ryan Reynolds]

#Dunkirk heading to about $20M opening day FRI, wknd on track for around $52M. Will be 1st non-sequel to hit #1 since #WonderWoman.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) July 22, 2017

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Audience score update:

 

Dunkirk: 88%

Girls Trip: 80%

Valerian: 66%

So Valerian is a "love it or hate it" kind of film.

 

Cause I've been seeing lots of raves but the ratings are usually middle of the road.

[Zakiyyah6]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Maybe it will play out like Baby Driver.

 

Another star director film with over 90% on RT.

Exactly. You never know if opening day frontloading is a big deal until you get Sat and Sun numbers.

[DAJK]

Would say valerian has a great chance at 8M+ at my theatre today. Same with Dunkirk and 20M (neither of them had previews so this is true Friday)