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@Blankments Trailer stalker update (The Commuter is making a play for my new stalker; I got it TWICE today for a total of four times in the past two weeks)

 

Blade Runner 2049: 7 (Alien, Baby Driver, Valerian, Dunkirk, Detroit, It, mother!)

The Mountain Between Us: 3 (Detroit, Girls Trip, Annabelle)

My Little Pony: 2 (Captain Underpants, Ninjago)

 

8:

Daddy’s Home 2 (Transformers, Baby Driver, The House, Despicable Me, Apes, Wish Upon, Girls Trip, Ninjago)

 

7:

Thor: Ragnarok (GOTG, GOTG IMAX, The Mummy, Spider-Man, Valerian, Wish Upon, Atomic Blonde)

 

6:

Geostorm (Kong, POTC, 47 Meters Down, Big Sick, Kingsman, Blade Runner)

Star Wars (GOTG, GOTG IMAX, POTC, Wonder Woman, Spider-Man, Dunkirk)

 

5:

Murder on the Orient Express (The Mummy, It Comes at Night, Apes, Wish Upon, American Made)

Suburbicon (Atomic Blonde, Wind River, mother!, Kingsman, American Made)

 

4:

Coco (BATB, Gifted, Cars, Ninjago)

The Commuter (American Assassin, Kingsman, American Made, Blade Runner)

The Foreigner (Detroit, American Assassin, Kingsman, Blade Runner)

Happy Death Day (47 Meters Down, Wish Upon, Annabelle, It)

Jigsaw (Annabelle, It, mother!, American Assassin)

Only the Brave (Dunkirk, Detroit, The Dark Tower, Blade Runner)

Pitch Perfect 3 (Baby Driver, Despicable Me, Big Sick, Girls Trip)

The Snowman (Atomic Blonde, Wind River, mother!, American Made)

 

3:

Death Wish (Detroit, It, American Assassin)

The Greatest Showman (The House, Despicable Me, Kingsman)

Wonder (POTC, Cars, Despicable Me)

 

2:

Black Panther (Valerian, The Dark Tower)

Ferdinand (Captain Underpants, Cars)

Jumanji (Ninjago, Kingsman)

Justice League (Wonder Woman, Dunkirk)

Polaroid (Wind River, mother!)

Professor Marston (Spider-Man, The Dark Tower)

Ready Player One (It, Blade Runner)

Red Sparrow (Kingsman, Blade Runner)

The Shape of Water (Apes, mother!)

Thank You for Your Service (The Dark Tower, American Made)

TYLER PERRY’S BOO 2! (Girls Trip, Hitman’s Bodyguard)

 

1:

Spoiler

 

All the Money in the World (American Made)

Alpha (Hitman’s Bodyguard)

Annihilation (Blade Runner)

Bad Moms (The House)

Breathe (Logan Lucky)

The Current War (Wind River)

Darkest Hour (Atomic Blonde)

Downsizing (mother!)

Duck Duck Goose (Ninjago)

Father Figures (American Made)

Isle of Dogs (Ninjago)

The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Good Time)

Olaf’s Frozen Adventure (Cars)

Pacific Rim: Uprising (Blade Runner)

Proud Mary (Girls Trip)

Super Troopers 2 (Kingsman)

Three Billboards (Good Time)

A Wrinkle in Time (Valerian)

 

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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December 1 is without any wide releases again because Polaroid got moved to Thanksgiving. IMO, A24 should skip The Disaster Artist's NY/LA release and just go wide out of the gate on the 1st instead of waiting one week. Sony should release All the Money in the World wide sometime over early December too, because I really don't see where it'd expand in January unless it's the first weekend of the year.

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

December 1 is without any wide releases again because Polaroid got moved to Thanksgiving. IMO, A24 should skip The Disaster Artist's NY/LA release and just go wide out of the gate on the 1st instead of waiting one week. Sony should release All the Money in the World wide sometime over early December too, because I really don't see where it'd expand in January unless it's the first weekend of the year.

January 5th would work for All the Money in the World although I wouldn’t be surprised if they went wide on Christmas Day or December 29th

Edited by Jonwo
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2 hours ago, MOVIEGUY said:

 

Depends on how hyped you are. The people going "OMG ALL TIME CLASSIC MASTERPIECE BEST MOVIE EVER DENIS VILEVUNU STICK YOUR BALLS IN MY MOUTH" before it even came out never had realistic expectations. I just got back and I enjoyed it quite a bit. Very well made, Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford were great and I didn't think it dragged at all. I'd definitely recommend it but it's not a "masterpiece" like I'm hearing from some people by any stretch.

 

Actualy it is the masterpiece that some people have been saying

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Snowman is embargoed in the US until the night of previews at 9 PM Eastern just before the first showings get out :ohmygod: 

 

@Alli Sorry, this is a bomb :sadben: 

Holy shit :ohmygod: Honestly thought it would be good

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October 20 is going to have four panned wide releases with the potential for a fifth:

 

The Snowman: Embargoed until previews get out

Same Kind of Different: There's a reason Paramount sold this off to Pure Flix. The movie was finished back in 2014 and was supposed to be out in April 2016 then February 2017.

Geostorm: lol if you expect this to be legitimately good

TYLER PERRY'S BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN: Need I say more?

 

Only the Brave seems like the kind of film that lands in the 50's on RT, so I doubt it gets flat out panned. However, there's a good chance all 5 releases in two weeks are rotten.

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23 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

January 5th would work for All the Money in the World although I wouldn’t be surprised if they went wide on Christmas Day or December 29th

All The Money in The World will probably get a wide release around Christmas. I don't think it'll do great business myself, but it'll be a smart move to release around then, since it'll already be in limited for a few weeks by then. 

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11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Snowman is embargoed in the US until the night of previews at 9 PM Eastern just before the first showings get out :ohmygod: 

 

@Alli Sorry, this is a bomb :sadben: 

American made second weekend over snowman OW thread incoming lol

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10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

October 20 is going to have four panned wide releases with the potential for a fifth:

 

The Snowman: Embargoed until previews get out

Same Kind of Different: There's a reason Paramount sold this off to Pure Flix. The movie was finished back in 2014 and was supposed to be out in April 2016 then February 2017.

Geostorm: lol if you expect this to be legitimately good

TYLER PERRY'S BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN: Need I say more?

 

Only the Brave seems like the kind of film that lands in the 50's on RT, so I doubt it gets flat out panned. However, there's a good chance all 5 releases in two weeks are rotten.

There's a good chance more than 1/2 of those films are out of 2/3 of their OW theaters in 2 weeks, too:)...

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7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

There's a good chance more than 1/2 of those films are out of 2/3 of their OW theaters in 2 weeks, too:)...

Theaters are going to be hurting to fill all of their screens for the first two weeks of November despite having several high profile releases. A lot of holdovers won't be doing well then:

 

The Snowman will have a massive TC drop in its third week

Same Kind of Different as Me won't be grossing enough for theaters to keep it around

Jigsaw, Happy Death Day, and TYLER PERRY'S BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN are all going to collapse after Halloween

Geostorm's legs will probably be bad, especially once Thor opens

Blade Runner will be nearing the end of its run at many theaters

 

It pretty much puts Orient Express and Daddy's Home in a good spot to get 2 screens at a lot of theaters. Sony would be nuts not to expand Roman Israel wide on the 10th too.

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Victoria and Abdul is looking to double its gross from last weekend and crack the top ten, making $2,184,408 with a per theater average of $2,984, likely the third best in the top ten.  That would give it a total of 3,999,802.

 

For Kingsman to hit 80,000,000 after Sunday, it need to fall 52.0% and make $8,135,575 with a per theater average of $2,332.

 

For the middle school and beginning high school crowd, this is the options from the top 20 last weekend + new openers:  My Little Pony (PG), Flatliners(PG-13), Mountain Between Us (PG-13), Battle of the Sexes (PG-13), The Stray (PG), Lego Ninjago (PG), Home Again (PG-13), Victoria and Abdul (PG-13), Til Death Do Us Part (PG-13), A Question of Faith (PG), Leap! (PG), Spider-Man: Homecoming (PG-13).

With these choices, I see Flatliners holding respectably by making another 3.000.000 million this weekend.  That would be a 54.4% drop, a $1,176 per theater average, and a 11,529,602 10-day total.

I do not see Til Death Do Us Part or A Question of Faith completely collapsing.  I see drops about 40 to 50%.  That would give Til Death Do Part 0.825 million weekend, (-46.0%), 2.734 million total, and A Question of Faith 0.608 million weekend, (-40.7% drop), and 1.943 million total.

Leap! could collapse over 50%.  It is loosing over 50% of it theaters and I do not see it increasing per screen average with the direct competition from My Little Pony and The Stray + the Weinstein controversy, however, I see Wind River's pet theater average increasing 10% or more from last weekend.

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming should surpass Guardians of the Galaxy for the #49 position all time in 7 days or less.  It also looks to surpass Alice in Wonderland at #48 with 334.191, but #47 (Minions - 336.046) and #46 (Spider-Man 3 - 336.530) look to be too far right now.

 

It will hit 305.000.000 million if it drops 42.5% this weekend to $9,721,522 with a per screen average of $2,697. 

 

Ninjago needs to drop 40.4% to get $6,936,337 ($1,921 PTA), and hit 44.000.000 million total.  If it makes this number and follows Storks' legs from weekend #3 on out, it will add 19.00 million and make 63 total.   60 milion total should be fine, but 3x multiplier looks tough.

 

Annabelle should eventually pass 102.00 million, but this is a few weeks away and it is in 188 theaters now.  It will need a dollar theater bump to reach The Conjuring 2's total of 102,470,008.

 

Dunkirk should pass 187.40 in 7 days or less and is on its way to passing Interstellar's 188,020,017 domestic cume.

 

The Boss Baby is at $174,999,590 and Friend Request could fall up to 90% this weekend.

 

Dunkirk made 38.8 million opening weekend when you subtract the flat number of 11.7 million from IMAX.  If Blade Runner 2049 matches this, it would make 38.8 million.  Then, if it adds half of the 11.7 million Dunkirk made from IMAX, the weekend would be 44.65 million.  Ghost in the Shell made 3 million from IMAX.  If Blade Runner doubles this, and the 6 million is added to Dunkirk's OW without the IMAX number, the weekend for Blade Runner 2049 would be 44.8 million.

Edited by Matrix4You
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