junkshop36 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, a2knet said: I wouldn't be surprised if it goes below Avatar. "Only" 20% drop from TFA (936.66) gives it 749.33, just a hair below Avatar's 1st release (749.77). 30% drop gives 655.66, close to JW's 652.27. Inbetwix those two ends you get 702.5 and that's what I'll go with. I think OW will be close to 210 and the multiplier around 3.35x. It's multi won't be that low. 3.5-3.6 225/780-810 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B D Joe Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 I say 600s. It won't have the repeat viewing of TFA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 (edited) 51 minutes ago, UNDERDOG said: Off Topic: Harvey Weinstein just got booted out of his company. Couldn't happen to a nicer man...in all seriousness, I'm happy to see more of the creeps getting outed...you can't clean up the industry until you out the schmucks...and I'm amazed he got covered for as long as he did... Edited October 9, 2017 by TwoMisfits 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morieris Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 At this rate i'll be very surprised if MLP makes 60$m. I'm thinking a Lost Village run - that didn't have animated competition for awhile either (or did it? I though some third party animated movie came out the last week of april this year.) Spoiler and it's already online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Wow! The Foreigner's RT critic score is at 80%! Not expecting much for it, but that's not a too bad critic score so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 40 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said: I'd actually go further to sub-$700M. certainly possible. if i'm gonna narrow down to a 20M range I'd probably say 690-710M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DlAMONDZ Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said: Both Blade Runner and My Little Pony box office proves that cult things do not equal box office and people like myself should not get caught up in the hype without thinking things through. I almost fell for it. Looking at twitter you'd think it was gonna break out. But outside film fans and wannabe critics no one could give 2 fucks about Blade Runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, junkshop36 said: It's multi won't be that low. 3.5-3.6 225/780-810 Considering TFA did 3.76x and how sequels have been dropping in legs, my first thought was that 3.5-3.6x is a bit optimistic but not impossible. Despite not having the same thirst as TFA, absent the long wait that fueled TFA, Disney will pull out all stops to sell previews and premium shows early on to a huge degree. Rogue One did not have the long anticipation of SW7 especially as a spin-off and releasing with a year of SW7. Yet it did "only" 3.43x. I don't see why SW8 should do higher than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxofficerules Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said: Wow! The Foreigner's RT critic score is at 80%! Not expecting much for it, but that's not a too bad critic score so far. Only 5 reviews, we all know that could change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cochofles Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said: Both Blade Runner and My Little Pony box office proves that cult things do not equal box office and people like myself should not get caught up in the hype without thinking things through. Was the My Little Pony toys/cartoon a cult thing? It was never fully on my radar, but I always assumed that MLP was very mainstream/successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Some positive news for BR 2049 though - OS is genuinely good with a 50.2m weekend. Quote The UK led all markets with $8M for the weekend. That came in on par with Interstellar’s FSS and was 15% above Mad Max: Fury Road in 2015. Australia took a great $3.6M, topping both Interstellar (+9%) and Gravity (+28%); and Russia scored $4.9M, ahead of Gravity (+16%) and Mad Max (+1%). Other top markets include: France ($3.6M), Germany ($3.3M), Spain ($2.6M), Italy ($2.5M), Brazil ($1.8M), and Mexico ($1.6M). If it can do 50.2 * 2.6 = 130m OS in current markets, 85m in China, 50m in Japan & Korea combined and 85m Dom, the global tally will be 85 (Dom) + 50 (SK&J) + 85 (Ch) + 130 (Rest) = 350 Is that realistic? What are the chances it adds more in current OS markets (compared to my 50 * 2.6 = 130), and a little more than 50 in SK&J for 375 ww? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, a2knet said: Considering TFA did 3.76x and how sequels have been dropping in legs, my first thought was that 3.5-3.6x is a bit optimistic but not impossible. Despite not having the same thirst as TFA, absent the long wait that fueled TFA, Disney will pull out all stops to sell previews and premium shows early on to a huge degree. Rogue One did not have the long anticipation of SW7 especially as a spin-off and releasing with a year of SW7. Yet it did "only" 3.43x. I don't see why SW8 should do higher than that. Thats cool and I understand your logic. I just think the main saga movies are a bit of a different beast. I don't see it doing below ROs multi. We'll see in a couple of months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said: Still don't see Mary Poppins doing THAT well. A recast sequel to a super old movie? Good luck. People forget that Disney proper movies are mostly not big hits unless they come from Marvel, Lucasfilm or they are live action versions of popular animated hits. Poppins is not any of those things. One exception is disney remake of classics that are doing ridiculously well. It could play bigger considerably bigger than cinderella and closer to Jungle book imo a bit like the others live action remake of more popular animated hits, I'm not sure the animated part is important, the remake of Disney popular classic maybe is (they just happen to be mostly animated). Poppins popularity is still extremely strong according to home video sales: http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Mary-Poppins#tab=video-sales On the last 2 volt release (45th and 50th anniversary edition), it went on to sales almost 150m in the united states alone according to the-numbers, without the help of a movie remake project. And still selling strong since then, getting closer to 200m For comparable to the 180m sales of Marry Poppins on dvd/bluray 1991 beauty and the beast: 212 million (after the big boost of this year remake release was at 150m before that, like Poppins) 1967 Jungle book: 294 million (after the movie remake boost was at 277m before that) 1950 cinderella: 95m (after the help of the remake) Poppins ranking in home video sales annually according to the-numbers since the last edition: 2013: 72 2014: 68 2015: 68 (5 million more in dollar than the 93 Jurassic Park that was helped by Jurassic world) 2016: 71 2017: 63 That is showing a constant interest/relevance among audience. Edited October 9, 2017 by Barnack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, a2knet said: Some positive news for BR 2049 though - OS is genuinely good with a 50.2m weekend. If it can do 50.2 * 2.6 = 130m OS in current markets, 85m in China, 50m in Japan & Korea combined and 85m Dom, the global tally will be 85 (Dom) + 50 (SK&J) + 85 (Ch) + 130 (Rest) = 350 Is that realistic? What are the chances it adds more in current OS markets (compared to my 50 * 2.6 = 130), and a little more than 50 in SK&J for 375 ww? I think 85M in China is probably way too optimistic, especially for hard sci-fi versus more action oriented scifi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 (edited) 22 minutes ago, a2knet said: Some positive news for BR 2049 though - OS is genuinely good with a 50.2m weekend. If it can do 50.2 * 2.6 = 130m OS in current markets, 85m in China, 50m in Japan & Korea combined and 85m Dom, the global tally will be 85 (Dom) + 50 (SK&J) + 85 (Ch) + 130 (Rest) = 350 Is that realistic? What are the chances it adds more in current OS markets (compared to my 50 * 2.6 = 130), and a little more than 50 in SK&J for 375 ww? If it does 130m in current, we could compare with arrival Arrival did 76.11 oversea minus China/Japan/South korea. And 26.724 in those. So if follow that pattern, 130/76.11 * 26.724 = 45.645 in those 3, 175m oversea + 85m dom = 260m WW Now Blade Runner is maybe more of a cult film in Japan and I imagine it could overperform vs Arrival in China and do say 65 to reach 275m, who knows with China really and some Sci-fi did extremely well in SK.. Edited October 9, 2017 by Barnack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, Barnack said: One exception is disney remake of classics that are doing ridiculously well. It could play bigger considerably bigger than cinderella and closer to Jungle book imo a bit like the others live action remake of more popular animated hits, I'm not sure the animated part is important, the remake of Disney popular classic maybe is (they just happen to be mostly animated). Poppins popularity is still extremely strong according to home video sales: http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Mary-Poppins#tab=video-sales On the last 2 volt release (45th and 50th anniversary edition), it went on to sales almost 150m in the united states alone according to the-numbers, without the help of a movie remake project. And still selling strong since then, getting closer to 200m For comparable to the 180m sales of Marry Poppins on dvd/bluray 1991 beauty and the beast: 212 million (after the big boost of this year remake release was at 150m before that, like Poppins) 1967 Jungle book: 294 million (after the movie remake boost was at 277m before that) 1950 cinderella: 95m (after the help of the remake) Poppins ranking in home video sales annually according to the-numbers since the last edition: 2013: 72 2014: 68 2015: 68 (5 million more in dollar than the 93 Jurassic Park that was helped by Jurassic world) 2016: 71 2017: 63 That is showing a constant interest/relevance among audience. Poppins also exists as a stage musical so people have likely been exposed to the character even if they haven’t seen the original film. It’s no Beauty and the Beast or Lion King but it had a very healthy run on Broadway and in the West End and had very successful tours in both those countries and WW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Looks like Blade Runner opened well in Australia and U.K. Only Domestic audiences Rejected it. Nice to see other countries give different type of films a chance. We owe you debt of gratitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Got my Moviepass cards in the mail yesterday! Time to start seeing more movies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, junkshop36 said: Got my Moviepass cards in the mail yesterday! Time to start seeing more movies. Since you brought it up, I have questions. Are you enrolled by the month or year? What if you don't use it for a month or two, do you still need to pay for it? An earlier version only allowed you to watch a film once. Does that still hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outrageous! Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 1 hour ago, DlAMONDZ said: I almost fell for it. Looking at twitter you'd think it was gonna break out. But outside film fans and wannabe critics no one could give 2 fucks about Blade Runner 55 minutes ago, Cochofles said: Was the My Little Pony toys/cartoon a cult thing? It was never fully on my radar, but I always assumed that MLP was very mainstream/successful. Many here forget recent history. Just look what happened to Power Rangers in March. Its existing fans were the first ones to see it opening weekend, but quickly fell off after that. Many of these movies end up getting mostly the audience that already exists for them, without any sign of expanding the audience further. There was quite a bit of talk about PR on social media in the days before release too. My Little Pony's audience is much more limited than some of the more popular cartoons out there. MLP's TV show exists on a higher tier cable channel that some cable providers may not even offer, Discovery Family. It's a huge advantage for competitors like Nickelodeon that has Spongebob Squarepants airing on a regular basis, making promoting their own movies like Sponge Out of Water much easier. Thus, some may not have seen an MLP episode on a regular basis in years. MLP appears to be following PR's box office more closely instead of that for a typical animated movie. I am doubtful that just because of its lack of competition means MLP will hold well. After all, it is the fall TV season, and there are new cartoons airing on TV right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
