5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

[WrathOfHan]

Yeah, Darkest Hour did very well compared to movies in a similar vein. Like Coolio said, it'll probably make more total than CMBYN, especially overseas.

Man Who Invented Christmas is a flop with only a $2,141 PTA for the 3 day

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

darkest hour is gonna make more than cmbyn in the long run imo.

Both will make it to $30-35M. In fact, that's the range I see a lot of contenders landing (The Shape of Water and I Tonya should easily end up in that area as well). Don't think we're gonna have a sub-$20M Best Picture nominee again this year unless The Florida Project or Phantom Thread (which will probably be this year's Silence in terms of box office appeal) get nominated.

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Both will make it to $30-35M. In fact, that's the range I see a lot of contenders landing (The Shape of Water and I Tonya should easily end up in that area as well). Don't think we're gonna have a sub-$20M Best Picture nominee again this year unless The Florida Project or Phantom Thread (which will probably be this year's Silence in terms of box office appeal) get nominated.

No way The Shape of Water goes that low; it'll do a minimum of 60M.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

 

That's actually a great start for Darkest Hour, especially when it went head-to-head against the arthouse juggernaut that is Call Me by Your Name (which is also expected to be a much bigger Oscar player). It's a much bigger launch than Lion on the same weekend last year too.

Given its tone/subject matter, Lion was not a movie whose target audience was the same crowd that helps movies break per-theater average records in limited NY/LA opening, I always thought its early release pattern was strange. A better start doesn't necessarily mean a better finish for Darkest Hour, it's well off The Imitation Game and a bit closer to Jackie, though I expect DH to make more than that one, ultimately.

Edited November 26, 2017 by BoxOfficeChica

[SpiritComix]

I believe 'Avengers: Infinity Wars' will make more money than 'Avengers: Age of Ultron'.

 

MY PERSONAL ANALYSIS:

 

'Avengers: Infinity War' (and its sequel) will be very different beasts of 'Avengers: Age of Ultron'

'Age of Ultron':

 

Didn't add more new beloved characters coming from successful solo movies. Then there wasn't the excitement of seeing characters who had never interacted before together for the first time, as happened with the first film. 

 

The Line-up was basically the same (Cap, Iron Man, Thor, Hulk, Black Widow, Hawkeye), same interactions, with some small cameos, a way less compelling villain and the only good addition was Scarlet Witch (unkown character, without a previous successful solo Movie). A middle-of-the-story. Nothing felt really new.

 

'Infinity War' and the sequel:

Yes. It will not have the same novelty effect as the first Avengers. But it has much more to offer than 'Age of Ultron'. This time we have new characters that have never interacted before, coming from successful films:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy
Black Panther
Doctor Strange
Spider-Man
Ant-Man and the Wasp (for Avengers: Infinity War's sequel)
Captain Marvel (for Avengers: Infinity War's sequel)

 

Hell, you can make a successful new Avengers movies only with these new characters!

 

Plus, according to the Russo Brothers, new characters will debut in these films. 

 

I know, somebody might say that some of these characters have already interacted before (Spider-Man, Ant-Man and Black Panther in 'Civil War'.) Thor, Hulk and Doctor Strange in 'Ragnarok'). But at that time, Spider-Man and Black Panther didn't have their own successful MCU solo movies and that was a confrontational movie between the heroes. Since 'Age of Ultron' people don't see the Avengers fighting united against a common enemy again. I really believe that the excitement of seeing all these characters together, the new and old, the new interactions and dinamics and the strength of the 'Avengers' brand (much stronger with the general audiences than 'Captain America') will make a big difference.

 

I also believe that Marvel Studios is building its best phase so far, with many quality films and box office hits. With a lot more people interested in the solo films, a lot more people will be interested in the new Avengers movies.

 

Also it's the final chapter of an 10 years arc. The long-awaited battle against Thanos (who I believe will be a way better villain). It's not the middle of the story, it's the exciting, epic conclusion.

 

I think those movies will be HUGE in scope and at the box-office.

[ddddeeee]

 

[La Binoche]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Both will make it to $30-35M. 

Call Me will make less because 1.) as we discussed, SPC rarely knows how to turn critical kudos into money and 2.) it's a languorous European art film. 

[Fancyarcher]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

No way The Shape of Water goes that low; it'll do a minimum of 60M.

I dunna, it's actually a very "nice" film, but I could see it turning off people just because it's a GDT film. I worry that it losing a lot of Oscar momentum might hurt its box office too. The Christmas release should of course help though.

[a2k]

Just now, ddddeeee said:

 

13m weekend, 26m away from 100m.

big drop for all movies next weekend but this one has shown good strength on weekdays too.

[filmlover]

Just now, Fancyarcher said:

I dunna, it's actually a very "nice" film, but I could see it turning off people just because it's a GDT film. I worry that it losing a lot of Oscar momentum might hurt its box office too. The Christmas release should of course help though.

As I said in the Best Picture, it actually reminds me of Sweeney Todd, in which it will probably alienate people on both sides (that movie was too much of a horror for musical fans and too much of a musical for horror fans - you can replace "musical" with "romance" in The Shape of Water's case), on top of both being fading awards contenders. If it makes what that film did ($50M+), it'll be one of the bigger success stories of the season.

[La Binoche]

 

[Rumpot]

This Thanksgiving Weekend just seemed to be a little weaker across the board as a general theme.  Tuesday during the week pulled in 27.6M without Coco and from there everything did fine, but the holiday bump seemed blunted.  

[Boxofficerules]

Sooooo close!

 

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

As I said in the Best Picture, it actually reminds me of Sweeney Todd, in which it will probably alienate people on both sides (that movie was too much of a horror for musical fans and too much of a musical for horror fans - you can replace "musical" with "romance" in The Shape of Water's case), on top of both being fading awards contenders. If it makes what that film did ($50M+), it'll be one of the bigger success stories of the season.

Sweeny Todd isn't a movie that makes the GA feel good though - Shape Of Water reportedly is.   It's not just horror with romance, it's romantic.  It also looks to be more fantasy than horror.

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Sooooo close!

 

At least Fox doesn't need to push this hard....(guess what movie is it!)

Feb 17–19	26	$395,984	+67.7%	658	+443	$602	$98,517,724	9
Feb 17–20	24	$472,882	+100%	658	+443	$719	$98,594,622	9
Feb 24–26	27	$243,117	-38.6%	287	-371	$847	$98,952,525	10
Mar 3–5	33	$132,711	-45.4%	175	-112	$758	$99,193,459	11
Mar 10–12	32	$105,541	-20.5%	172	-3	$614	$99,350,745	12
Mar 17–19	36	$58,334	-44.7%	90	-82	$648	$99,466,845	13
Mar 24–26	16	$397,472	+581%	506	+416	$786	$99,886,692	14
Mar 31–Apr 2	42	$46,196	-88.4%	57	-449	$810	$99,956,732	15
Apr 7–9	45	$37,097	-19.7%	32	-25	$1,159	$100,005,122	16

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Sweeny Todd isn't a movie that makes the GA feel good though - Shape Of Water reportedly is.   It's not just horror with romance, it's romantic.  It also looks to be more fantasy than horror.

Plus Sweeney Todd was released before the ten best picture expansion.

 

My biggest worry is that audiences might be turned off by the "monster". But aside from the creature, and Shannon's "villain" character, there's not much else in it, that I would call up straight horror. It's actually quite lovely. 

[Rumpot]

 

Hmm

[a2k]

 

2x the weekend more gives ~311m.

Edited November 26, 2017 by a2knet

[La Binoche]

Doesn't SoW have a lot of heart?  Sweeney Todd didn't.  I don't think they're comparable. 

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, Rumpot said:

 

Hmm

Are they underestimating sunday drop?

Edited November 26, 2017 by NCsoft