THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[Elessar]

Yes, TLJ might drop over 50% on monday.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

-55% drop gives 23.1m Monday.

Not aiming for exact Rogue One drop or assuming Rogue One drop plus extra discount Tuesday effect? 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

What percentage of kids are off school today compared to RO's first Monday?

Probably roughly the same give or take 5%...

[redfirebird2008]

24 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I can’t presently explain my math but I spent hours researching this stuff in the past and I always pegged Titanic at 130 million tickets sold.

 

Because of TFA’s high ticket prices, I know the BOM method may indicate 100 million tickets but I believe the number to be closer to 90-95 personally as it had an outsized portion of IMAX and PLF tickets sold.

 

Just my two cents but I’ve heard ANH’s first run tickets listed at around 99 million. So yes by my math Titanic outsold anything else on first release by a comfortable (and ridiculous) 30 million or so.

 

"Spizzer" on this forum did a great job figuring out the admission numbers for TFA. Thankfully the media was pretty helpful in giving us IMAX/3D/PLF percentages pretty far into TFA's run. Usually we only get that data for opening weekend. 

 

I believe Spizzer came up with around 95 million admissions for TFA. That's still gigantic compared to everything else in the last 15 years.  Also gives further perspective to Titanic's run at nearly 130 million admissions. That one will never cease to amaze.

[RobinHood26]

[JB33]

Still hoping for $25M+ today.

[LonePirate]

The Daddy’s Home 2 vs. Murder on the Orient Express showdown has been very interesting the past few weeks. Looks like DH2 may pull off the win unless it collapses after Christmas.

 

Regardless of which film wins, this showdown rivals the Minority Report vs. Lilo & Stitch showdown back in 2002. Or has there been a more recent applicable showdown?

Edited December 18, 2017 by LonePirate

[WrathOfHan]

Today at my theater, the 2D shows have been near-sellouts while 3D is filling up to 40-50% capacity. Tomorrow looks to be the same way because the 3D shows have barely sold anything; you can get prime seats at night for 3D where 2D is already at least halfway full.

 

Public schools aren't out until Thursday here FWIW

Edited December 18, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[redfirebird2008]

10 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

What percentage of kids are off school today compared to RO's first Monday?

 

Would think it faces a similar situation to Rogue One, maybe slightly worse since Last Jedi came out a day earlier. I've heard school kids around here get out on Thursday the 21st. Makes sense for the insane Monday for TFA, which was the 21st. Avatar and TFA really did have the absolute perfect release date, haha. Friday December 18th has to be the gold standard now.

Edited December 18, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[RamblinRed]

2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

The Daddy’s Home 2 vs. Murder on the Orient Express showdown has been very interesting the past few weeks. Looks like DH2 may pull off the win unless it collapses after Christmas.

 

Regardless of which film wins, this showdown rivals the Minority Report vs. Lilo & Stitch showdown back in 2002. Or has there been a more recent one applicable showdown?

While JW greatly outperformed IO overall, if you followed it just from when IO was released it was like they were joined at the hip.

I followed that for a good part of the summer. 

 

[RichWS]

It would be fairly surprising to me if it doesn't fall at least 50% today. 

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

While JW greatly outperformed IO overall, if you followed it just from when IO was released it was like they were joined at the hip.

I followed that for a good part of the summer. 

 

 

Yep, both made $356m after Inside Out's release.

[RamblinRed]

The RT score is completely unusable at this point -same with Metacritic.

 

They got at least 60K votes in early. Note that many of these sites have a weighting in their algorithm to overweight early likes/dislikes. So it would take a huge backfill to overcome. Bots could still be attacking now. it is really up to the company's IT department to shut it down if it feels like it is worthwhile to do so.

 

This is why internet polls are somewhat scary. If you don't have really strong controls in them, they are easy to manipulate.

I doubt RT had any controls in place to prevent a bot attack because frankly who would have thought that anyone would care enough.

 

Congrats to the Facebook guy who said he created the bot and got help from others to carry out the attack. He got the result he wanted in terms of what the score looks like.

 

I don't expect this to have TFA legs, but I don't expect it to fall off a cliff either. I expect it to play similar to a movie that has gotten the cinemascore and comtrak scores of similar movies. Those are not structured in a way that can be attacked by bots.

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

While JW greatly outperformed IO overall, if you followed it just from when IO was released it was like they were joined at the hip.

I followed that for a good part of the summer. 

 

That weekend of June 19-21 was ridiculous. JW had an insane 2nd weekend of $100M+ and IO still managed $90M. I mean, that's an amazing result for both even if they were both left all on their own.

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, Lor San Tele said:

 

Just wait until the next movie is called RETURN OF THE FORCE. 

 

ROTF

 

...Revenge of the Fallen?

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

The RT score is completely unusable at this point -same with Metacritic.

 

They got at least 60K votes in early. Note that many of these sites have a weighting in their algorithm to overweight early likes/dislikes. So it would take a huge backfill to overcome. Bots could still be attacking now. it is really up to the company's IT department to shut it down if it feels like it is worthwhile to do so.

 

This is why internet polls are somewhat scary. If you don't have really strong controls in them, they are easy to manipulate.

I doubt RT had any controls in place to prevent a bot attack because frankly who would have thought that anyone would care enough.

 

Congrats to the Facebook guy who said he created the bot and got help from others to carry out the attack. He got the result he wanted in terms of what the score looks like.

 

I don't expect this to have TFA legs, but I don't expect it to fall off a cliff either. I expect it to play similar to a movie that has gotten the cinemascore and comtrak scores of similar movies. Those are not structured in a way that can be attacked by bots.

 

Ultron and TDKR both had Cinemascore of "A" and dropped around 20% in legs (multiplier) from the previous movie. That would be around a 3.0 multiplier for Last Jedi compared to Force Awakens 3.78 multiplier. I think the holidays will help prevent that much of a drop, but I also would not be surprised if it comes up short of Rogue One's 3.43 multi. Disney is laughing all the way to the bank regardless.

Edited December 18, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[Krissykins]

Impressive that Disney got the estimate so close. 

 

Only overestimated by like $30k

[AniNate]

Sites like RT and IMDB could probably improve their audience ratings dramatically if they didn't open them up immediately when the film was released. Wait two weeks for fans to get over their emotions.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2017 by tribefan695

[Amadeus]

So JL will pass TLJ OW tomorrow. Decent 

[Barnack]

Just now, tribefan695 said:

Sites like RT and IMDB could probably dramatically improve their audience ratings if they didn't open them up immediately when the film was released. Wait two weeks for fans to get over their emotions.

There is some price that wait 2 year's for that (or 1?) at least a long time, say they would be doing the top 2015 movies list right now.

 

That would tend to be true, but a couple of things:

 

1) Main reason, they would dramatically diminish their traffic, I imagine a lot of the traffic is when the movie are new.

2) People movies opinion change a lot over time (didn't like 2001 a space odyssey before, loved it in my last rewatch), we naturally give the most value to our last opinion about a movie, but should we ? Why a particular watch experience be more valuable than others and the latest being the most valuable ?

 

There is some value and merit on how a movie achieved to make you feel on the ride home the first time, even if they needed to be pumped, a large audience into it, etc... they are experience build & made to be consumed that way very often after all. Would be interesting to have both rating, first hot impression and the cooled down one, both mean something, both have values imo.