THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, 75Live said:

 

 

like cannastop said, there are reports that a couple angry "fans" set up bots to purposely alter the score on RT

But (now this is non-techy me talking), shouldn't RT.com be able to shut this down easily if they want?  I mean, you'd think they'd want things to be valid on their site (or at least "1 man, 1 vote per movie" even if it's a fake one:), or what's the point of their site?

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

But (now this is non-techy me talking), shouldn't RT.com be able to shut this down easily if they want?  I mean, you'd think they'd want things to be valid on their site (or at least "1 man, 1 vote per movie" even if it's a fake one:), or what's the point of their site?

 

I assume they’ll try to set something up in the future, but prepping some algorithms designed to weed this behavior out while retaining “true” accounts isn’t something you can do overnight. 

[75Live]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

But (now this is non-techy me talking), shouldn't RT.com be able to shut this down easily if they want?  I mean, you'd think they'd want things to be valid on their site (or at least "1 man, 1 vote per movie" even if it's a fake one:), or what's the point of their site?

 

10 minutes ago, Lor San Tele said:

 

I assume they’ll try to set something up in the future, but prepping some algorithms designed to weed this behavior out while retaining “true” accounts isn’t something you can do overnight. 

 

Tele beat me to it

 

plus most sites like that aren't one vote, one person,  just like video views aren't, most polls aren't.  Just most sites don't go through the "hassle" of setting it up like that. 

 

Plus I doubt they go through the idea of "what if one butthurt person was to go around making a bot to mess up a useless online poll" when they set things up either  

Edited December 18, 2017 by 75Live

[JonathanLB]

2 hours ago, Elessar said:

That's awfuly close. Titanic sold much more tickets than TFA.

I can’t presently explain my math but I spent hours researching this stuff in the past and I always pegged Titanic at 130 million tickets sold.

 

Because of TFA’s high ticket prices, I know the BOM method may indicate 100 million tickets but I believe the number to be closer to 90-95 personally as it had an outsized portion of IMAX and PLF tickets sold.

 

Just my two cents but I’ve heard ANH’s first run tickets listed at around 99 million. So yes by my math Titanic outsold anything else on first release by a comfortable (and ridiculous) 30 million or so.

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

But (now this is non-techy me talking), shouldn't RT.com be able to shut this down easily if they want?  I mean, you'd think they'd want things to be valid on their site (or at least "1 man, 1 vote per movie" even if it's a fake one:), or what's the point of their site?

 

Always a race for stuff like that, how good they are to mimic vs being detected.

 

Specially here, the possible gain to do something like this is almost nill (Audience score is not a metric many look at) and only a competitor would normally have some interest in it, they did not necessarily inspect a group would put time and money to make it in a complex way (changing IP address and so on).

 

For example, apparently lot of comments about neutral internet was made from zombie hacked Facebook account:

https://news.slashdot.org/story/17/05/10/1627257/a-bot-is-flooding-the-fccs-website-with-fake-anti-net-neutrality-comments

http://www.zdnet.com/article/a-bot-is-flooding-the-fccs-website-with-fake-anti-net-neutrality-comments/

 

That is where you could expect it and would care, movie rating online....... how much resource would you want to spent on something like that, specially if it is not sponsorised by a competitor/industry/country but by fans doing it for free....

 

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I can’t presently explain my math but I spent hours researching this stuff in the past and I always pegged Titanic at 130 million tickets sold.

 

Because of TFA’s high ticket prices, I know the BOM method may indicate 100 million tickets but I believe the number to be closer to 90-95 personally as it had an outsized portion of IMAX and PLF tickets sold.

 

Just my two cents but I’ve heard ANH’s first run tickets listed at around 99 million. So yes by my math Titanic outsold anything else on first release by a comfortable (and ridiculous) 30 million or so.

If you could find out those figure.... could be interesting, do you remember if you had calculated Snow White,  E.T., Sound of Music, Gone with the Wind and the others suspect for biggest initial run ?

 

There is a lot of talk about impossibility to compare era, not fair for anyone post VHS became cheap enough to be popular, but the population growth seem to have made it possible to still make very comparable first release run than the classic, at least in market share they (E.T. Sound of Music, Gone With the Wind, New Hope, Titanic) were very close.

 

Now it is also interesting to compare money (real purchasing power money, not face value money) and not just tickets, logic told us in an imperfect way that if the tickets for Star Wars 7 would have been cheaper they would sold more of them, achieving to make people spend on the deluxe version, not wait on tuesday rebate because they are too excited, also count into the performance of a movie, like the big classic of the golden era that got RoadShow special release with ticket costing twice as much than regular movie.

Edited December 18, 2017 by Barnack

[hw64]

TLJ earns $220,009,584 for its opening weekend with weekend actuals

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056

 

[TwoMisfits]

Weekend Domestic Chart for December 15th, 2017

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Week
1	new	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$220,009,584		4,232	$51,987	$220,009,584	1
2	new	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$13,401,586		3,621	$3,701	$13,401,586	1
3	(1)	Coco	Walt Disney	$9,949,471	-46%	3,155	$3,154	$150,735,367	4
4	(3)	Wonder	Lionsgate	$5,400,000	-36%	3,047	$1,772	$109,256,738	5
5	(2)	Justice League	Warner Bros.	$4,170,000	-57%	2,702	$1,543	$219,456,347	5
6	(6)	Daddy’s Home 2	Paramount Pictures	$3,812,824	-36%	2,493	$1,529	$96,592,806	6
7	(5)	Thor: Ragnarok	Walt Disney	$3,133,416	-50%	1,895	$1,654	$306,527,536	7
8	(4)	The Disaster Artist	A24	$2,717,237	-57%	1,010	$2,690	$13,012,368	3
9	(7)	Murder on the Orient Express	20th Century Fox	$2,527,507	-51%	1,923	$1,314	$97,310,249	6
10	(9)	Lady Bird	A24	$2,099,239	-39%	947	$2,217	$25,968,628	7
11	(8)	The Star	Sony Pictures	$1,775,000	-52%	1,936	$917	$35,375,220	5
12	(13)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$1,710,811	+50%	158	$10,828	$3,593,375	3
13	(11)	Three Billboards Outside Eb…	Fox Searchlight	$1,587,087	-45%	944	$1,681	$21,336,065	6
14	(12)	A Bad Moms Christmas	STX Entertainment	$1,011,180	-61%	1,038	$974	$70,753,119	7
15	(10)	Just Getting Started	Broad Green Pictures	$1,008,113	-69%	1,840	$548	$5,493,590	2
16	(15)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$847,525	+14%	84	$10,090	$2,338,373	4
17	(17)	Call Me by Your Name	Sony Pictures Classics	$491,933	+72%	30	$16,398	$2,005,411	4
18	(23)	Wonder Wheel	Amazon Studios	$472,216	+215%	536	$881	$851,470	3
19	new	Youth	China Lion Film Dis…	$260,000		30	$8,667	$260,000	1
20	(19)	I, Tonya	Neon	$171,279	-35%	5	$34,256	$548,644	2
21	(14)	Roman J. Israel, Esq.	Sony Pictures	$140,000	-84%	238	$588	$11,728,747	5
22	(21)	Jigsaw	Lionsgate	$92,000	-44%	181	$508	$37,998,629	8
23	new	The Thousand Faces of Dunjia	Well Go USA	$57,837		27	$2,142	$57,837	1
24	(28)	The Florida Project	A24	$55,563	-38%	66	$842	$5,131,300	11
25	(25)	My Friend Dahmer	FilmRise	$40,000	-69%	40	$1,000	$1,246,287	7
26	(20)	The Mountain Between Us	20th Century Fox	$38,802	-84%	112	$346	$30,327,627	11
27	(33)	Despicable Me 3	Universal	$38,285	-23%	109	$351	$264,597,815	25
28	(31)	The Foreigner	STX Entertainment	$35,962	-41%	93	$387	$34,372,232	10
29	(32)	The Square	Magnolia Pictures	$33,507	-39%	41	$817	$1,119,282	8
30	(35)	Jane	Abramorama Films	$27,423	-41%	27	$1,016	$1,376,718	9
31	(36)	Kingsman: The Golden Circle	20th Century Fox	$25,877	-45%	92	$281	$100,180,164	13
32	(38)	The Swindlers	Well Go USA	$21,995	-49%	9	$2,444	$222,360	3
33	(40)	The Other Side of Hope	Janus Films	$21,586	-32%	11	$1,962	$97,109	3
34	(37)	Victoria and Abdul	Focus Features	$21,400	-53%	56	$382	$22,179,115	13
35	(42)	Tom of Finland	Kino Lorber	$17,310	-40%	8	$2,164	$293,946	10
36	(27)	Marshall	Open Road	$16,922	-82%	71	$238	$9,426,535	10
37	(49)	Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr …	Zeitgeist	$13,571	-26%	8	$1,696	$108,807	4
38	(47)	The Breadwinner	GKIDS	$12,713	-38%	28	$454	$182,331	5
39	(46)	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	A24	$11,855	-46%	23	$515	$2,273,299	9
40	(44)	Faces, Places	Cohen Media Group	$11,613	-57%	9	$1,290	$566,116	11
41	(43)	Let There Be Light	Atlas Distribution	$9,280	-67%	32	$290	$7,197,323	8
42	(34)	Last Flag Flying	Amazon Studios	$8,700	-82%	18	$483	$959,413	7
43	(58)	Human Flow	Amazon Studios	$7,597	+51%	9	$844	$520,609	10
44	(50)	Thelma	The Orchard	$6,433	-62%	21	$306	$124,662	6
45	new	Birdboy: The Forgotten Chil…	GKIDS	$5,849		4	$1,462	$5,849	1
46	new	Permanent	Magnolia Pictures	$5,722		8	$715	$5,722	1
47	new	The Ballad of Lefty Brown	A24	$5,559		2	$2,780	$5,559	1
48	(55)	Quest	First Run Features	$4,628	-30%	3	$1,543	$26,786	3
49	(53)	Goodbye Christopher Robin	Fox Searchlight	$4,332	-41%	15	$289	$1,732,264	10
50	(52)	Battle of the Sexes	Fox Searchlight	$4,135	-51%	12	$345	$12,634,281	13
51	(60)	Aida’s Secrets	Music Box Films	$2,796	-23%	3	$932	$91,257	9
52	(68)	BPM (Beats per Minute)	The Orchard	$1,590	-31%	1	$1,590	$89,842	9
53	(57)	Naples ‘44	First Run Features	$1,476	-73%	1	$1,476	$24,616	3
54	(65)	The Divine Order	Kino Lorber	$1,401	-46%	4	$350	$46,021	8
55	(63)	Brotherhood of Blades 2	Well Go USA	$833	-69%	1	$833	$13,773	3
56	(64)	Lucky	Magnolia Pictures	$663	-75%	3	$221	$955,672	12
57	(81)	Porto	Kino Lorber	$500	+762%	1	$500	$11,763	5
58	(-)	Painted Woman	Amor Media	$276		1	$276	$10,166	6
59	(72)	Chavela	Music Box Films	$92	-92%	1	$92	$142,359	11

  TLJ almost dead on $220M...

[cannastop]

Some actuals coming in rather early.

 

Weekend Domestic Chart for December 15th, 2017

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Week
1	new	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$220,009,584		4,232	$51,987	$220,009,584	1
2	new	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$13,401,586		3,621	$3,701	$13,401,586	1
3	(1)	Coco	Walt Disney	$9,949,471	-46%	3,155	$3,154	$150,735,367

[JonathanLB]

I agree, and while I don’t like to engage in those debates because I don’t have a firm opinion, I like to play devils advocate because it does matter.

 

I know one thing for sure though people get incredibly sensitive over their movie being “downplayed” at all even when it’s for reasonable purposes. You notice I’m the biggest Star Wars looney there is but I adjusted TFA’s tickets down because I know damn good and well it had more expensive tickets than the average for 2017. 

 

Another example that does matter and I actually covered this in my book actually on TPM is the competition a movie faces. Titanic had historically among the weakest competition in history. During its first 15 weeks at the box office another movie grossed over $20 million on only TWO occasions, the first weekend and the 15th, which subsequently ended Titanic’s streak of 1s.

 

During TPMs first 15 weeks, one movie hit $50 million against it, another $40M+, four movies $30M+, and TWENTY occurrences of a $20M+ weekend against it. This is when you started to understand the potential of opening a movie in December where there’s not a goddamn ounce of competition for months. 

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

TLJ earns $220,009,584 for its opening weekend with weekend actuals

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056

 

It was overestimated!!!

 

*by $37.5k

[a2k]

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2017/12/15	1	$104,684,491		4,232	$24,736	$104,684,491	1
2017/12/16	1	$63,993,205	-39%	4,232	$15,121	$168,677,696	2
2017/12/17	1	$51,331,888	-20%	4,232	$12,129	$220,009,584	3

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

TLJ earns $220,009,584 for its opening weekend with weekend actuals

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056 https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/942843604027949056

 

So pretty much $220M on the dot. Nice!

[RamblinRed]

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2017/12/15	1	$104,684,491		4,232	$24,736	$104,684,491	1
2017/12/16	1	$63,993,205	-39%	4,232	$15,121	$168,677,696	2
2017/12/17	1	$51,331,888	-20%	4,232	$12,129	$220,009,584	3

 

 

Coco

2017/12/15  3  $2,251,643  +110%  3,155  $714  $143,037,53924

2017/12/16  3  $4,252,569   +89%  3,155   $1,348  $147,290,10825

2017/12/17  3  $3,445,259    -19%   3,155  $1,092  $150,735,36726

 

T:R

2017/12/15  7  $784,873     +77%   1,895    $414  $304,178,99343

2017/12/16    -$1,350,766   +72%   1,895    $713  $305,529,75944

2017/12/17     -$997,777     -26%    1,895    $527  $306,527,53645

[RamblinRed]

Nice job of estimates by Disney this weekend. 

They were off by 0.0002 - two one-hundreths of a percent

[TwoMisfits]

So, I guess with these numbers Ferdinand never expands its theater count and never gets an extra screen (or loses its extra to new releases if it got one last weekend)...I mean, those numbers are so low, Ferdinand could even find itself in a split situation by Dec 25 at smaller theaters since it was that low with the crazy Atom ticket deals and without losing prescheduled showings to Star Wars (which many holdovers did)...and without those Atom deals this week, this movie could quickly fall behind Coco and probably some other movies...

 

[a2k]

-55% drop gives 23.1m Monday.

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2017/12/15	1	$104,684,491		4,232	$24,736	$104,684,491	1
2017/12/16	1	$63,993,205	-39%	4,232	$15,121	$168,677,696	2
2017/12/17	1	$51,331,888	-20%	4,232	$12,129	$220,009,584	3

 

So the 20% Sunday projection was not only reasonable, it was spot on! Nice job Disney.

[FlashMaster659]

What percentage of kids are off school today compared to RO's first Monday?

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2017/12/15	1	$104,684,491		4,232	$24,736	$104,684,491	1
2017/12/16	1	$63,993,205	-39%	4,232	$15,121	$168,677,696	2
2017/12/17	1	$51,331,888	-20%	4,232	$12,129	$220,009,584	3

So it did end up dropping 20% on Sunday. A lot of people here were sure it wouldn't drop that much. I guess the night shows were just softer than expected. Still an enormous weekend overall.

 

The big 3 of STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, JURASSIC WORLD and THE AVENGERS are still king in terms of each day of the weekend minus previews though. If TLJ couldn't do it, it's going to be really tough for anyone to top the $62M+ true Fridays, $68M+ Saturdays and $57M+ Sundays of those 3 juggernauts.

Edited December 18, 2017 by JB33