Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, REC said:

If the movie was really good they wouldn't have a need to do this.  It would be a community of massive confirmation bias and their subscribers would support them in that.  There's quite literally no benefit to hate on something that 90% of people would (in theory) love.

But, really, we have to see how it does over true holidays starting Christmas Day and through the first week of January in which the bulk of students aren't in school. People said similar thing regarding Rogue One last year and then Christmas Day and the day after Christmas hit. BOOM! Numbers remained steadily impressive for about 10+ days after that. It's far, far too early to under $700M DOM even. Given Rogue One did $530M+ after a much, much softer OW DOM, I can't even imagine $600M DOM only. Now, if the bumps are muted starting this weekend and continuing on through Christmas Day, etc., then we can truly have this discussion. But, as of now, just far too early.

[George Parr]

11 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I wonder if the people, who classed my $600-650mil total prediction yesterday as borderline trolling, are starting to sweat a little now lol

 

 

Nope, still the borderline trolling like it was yesterday. Even a passing glance at box office history would tell you that. 600m should be passed by the first weekend in January even if drops would be worse than expected.

[redfirebird2008]

18 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

To you they are but if these guys endlessly upload videos bashing TLJ that effects buzz and WOM  among the fanbase (which is huge). 

 

 

To an extent. But I remember there was a lot of negative nitpicking about Avatar on the Internet even when it first came out. Did not stop that film from pulling an awesome 9.7 multiplier off a pretty big opening weekend. WOM was legitimately "A+++" level with the general audience and it didn't matter if people wanted to bitch on the Intertubes about it.

 

Similar thing can be said about TFA to an extent. A lot of fans were very happy with that movie, but you did see some nitpicking very early on about "New Hope Rehash" blah blah blah. Didn't stop it from getting an awesome 3.78 multiplier after a gigantic opening weekend.

 

Plus you just have the general sequel effect where even good WOM is not good enough to prevent a big decline in legs/multiplier. Ultron and TDKR both had good WOM despite the nitpicks on Internet. They still declined a crap ton from their predecessors when it comes to multiplier/legs.

Edited December 21, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[somebody85]

2 minutes ago, REC said:

I don't know about any of those supposed youtubers or channels, but SW is American culture.  It permeates anything and everything and spans generations of casual film fans.  Makes sense that everyone would be talking about it and have an opinion.

Yeah I guess but the videos I've seen aren't attacking it like a reviewer would. I mean some are but they are also attacking other stuff about it (and won't get into spoilers).
 

And as far as being irrelevant:
"As of December 2017, Benjamin's (Sargon of Akkads) main channel had over 737,000 subscribers and 197 million views"

197 million views....whether you agree with these guys or not, the numbers don't lie.

I'm going to drop it but I just was commenting that it was strange to see him post a video about TLJ when these guys/girls usually never go after films.

[REC]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

But, really, we have to see how it does over true holidays starting Christmas Day and through the first week of January in which the bulk of students aren't in school. People said similar thing regarding Rogue One last year and then Christmas Day and the day after Christmas hit. BOOM! Numbers remained steadily impressive for about 10+ days after that. It's far, far too early to under $700M DOM even. Given Rogue One did $530M+ after a much, much softer OW DOM, I can't even imagine $600M DOM only. Now, if the bumps are muted starting this weekend and continuing on through Christmas Day, etc., then we can truly have this discussion. But, as of now, just far too early.

I would just point out that BvS and JL point to the possibility that bad movies with bad WOM can cause much lower than expected results.  There's the possibility of fatigue, too many of these movies too fast.  If you want to say it has nothing to do with any supposed quality issues of the movie and blame the calendar fine, but that's a possibility too.  All of these things could conspire to produce a much lower than expected result.  I don't think 600m domestic is crazy if it just peters out for whatever reason.

[NCsoft]

27 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

They aren't alt right. They don't like the alt right either. They are somewhere in the middle because they'll attack the alt right too.

They certainly like to be called "Centrist", but that's kind of meaningless because who you claim what you are in YouTube sphere matters less than what you actually symbolize. Dave Rubin is a self claimed centrist who talks all the right-wing talk points and mostly talk to Alt-right people. Sargon of Akkad is certainly not Alt-right himself, but that doesn't change the fact that most of his audience are alt-right, therefore, he's obligated to produced "alt-right" bait material because those are what gets the most views, clicks and likes.

So when Sargon of Akkad makes a video titled "Nazis are bad", his dislike ratio suddenly increases many folds because it pisses off the Hitler fanboys in his audience, the most popular comment in the video then compares "SJW" to "Nazis", which Sargon then pins and liked himself.

Edited December 21, 2017 by NCsoft

[CenterMeOnSam]

Hi. I'd like to interject science and math again.

 

We have a new survey out which was done by SurveyMonkey.

 

89% of audiences either liked or loved the movie. 

 

That falls rather closely in line with the other scientific survey, Cinema Score, which gave it an A and is in line with PostTrak as well.

 

It also falls in line with an RT score of 93% and an MT score of 86.

 

I will repeat, again, the film is not as divisive as the loud voices on the internet want you to believe. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, REC said:

I would just point out that BvS and JL point to the possibility that bad movies with bad WOM can cause much lower than expected results.  There's the possibility of fatigue, too many of these movies too fast.  If you want to say it has nothing to do with any supposed quality issues of the movie and blame the calendar fine, but that's a possibility too.  All of these things could conspire to produce a much lower than expected result.  I don't think 600m domestic is crazy if it just peters out for whatever reason.

Well, in BvS case it applies far more than in Justice League. JL didn't have a great OW. Legs have been fine for it though. I agree more if it wasn't playing near identically to Rogue One so far. There were early alarm bells with BvS right away... Starting with it's horrid drop on Sunday its OW. Force Awakens isn't showing that yet. Nothing like it really just yet.

[somebody85]

5 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

They certainly like to be called "Centrist", but that's kind of meaningless because who you claim what you are in YouTube sphere matters less than what you actually symbolize. Dave Rubin is a self claimed centrist who talks all the right-wing talk points and mostly talk to Alt-right people. Sargon of Akkad is certainly not Alt-right himself, but that doesn't change the fact that most of his audience are alt-right, therefore, he's obligated to produced "alt-right" bait material because those are what gets the most views, clicks and likes.

So when Sargon of Akkad makes a video titled "Nazis are bad", his dislike ratio suddenly increases many folds because it pisses off the Hitler fanboys in his audience, the most popular comment in the video then compares "SJW" to "Nazis". 

Oh I know all of this, which is why I've stayed away from those videos for like a year or more and these guys/girls. It's all toxic and it never ends. I'm tired of both extremes.

As a centrist, I like people like Philip DeFranco and WeAreChange as far as that stuff...but this is getting off topic and politics are something I've been ignoring lately outside of Net Neutrality and various headlines.

Edited December 21, 2017 by somebody85

[somebody85]

5 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

Hi. I'd like to interject science and math again.

 

We have a new survey out which was done by SurveyMonkey.

 

89% of audiences either liked or loved the movie. 

 

That falls rather closely in line with the other scientific survey, Cinema Score, which gave it an A and is in line with PostTrak as well.

 

It also falls in line with an RT score of 93% and an MT score of 86.

 

I will repeat, again, the film is not as divisive as the loud voices on the internet want you to believe. 

It's also in line with Letterbox'd which I still think is the most accurate.

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Deadline estimates only $110m over the six-day period up to and including Christmas. Seems awfully low. Thoughts?

I agree with you that it seems awfully low.

A way this could happen would be.

 

Daily	Cume	Daily Change	Weekend	Drop	6 Day
16,900,000	278,720,146	-16.56
17,250,000	295,970,146	2.07
22,000.000	317,970,146	27.54
23,500,000	341,470,146	6.82
11,500,000	352,970,146	-51.06	57,000,000	-74.09
18,850,000	371,820,146	63.91	75,850,000	-65.52	110,000,000

 

Seems really low would mean that the second monday despite being 25th of December would be lower than the first. And a lot lower than Rogue One's second Monday.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

To an extent. But I remember there was a lot of negative nitpicking about Avatar on the Internet even when it first came out. Did not stop that film from pulling an awesome 9 multiplier off a pretty big opening weekend. WOM was legitimately "A+++" level with the general audience and it didn't matter if people wanted to bitch on the Intertubes about it.

 

That is a really good example of a big delta between vocal Internet and general population, Titanic also back in the days if you hanged out with young boys you could think the movie word of mouth was not that good. Around 20% of Americans thought Avatar should win best picture that year, more than even Blind side:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100305005220/en/Americans-Avatar-Win-Picture-Oscar-Sunday

 

Forest Gump/Gone with the wind would be other one example of movie with a lot of Internet nick pick, you can find a lot of criticism about them, yet Forest Gump was a top 10 favorite amongs Americans in 2008, Gone With the Wind was Americans favorite movie in 2008 and 2014.

 

For movie everyone saw and have a lot of public loves, you will normally be able to find a lot of negativity about it specially if the target audience for that negativity is young male. 

 

 

[NCsoft]

That imdb score is free falling, at 7.7 now, already below rogue one after a year, and 0.4 points below TFA after two years.

I got two video reviews in my sub box in one day from youtube movie reviewers, both are negative, most of user comments are negative, I very rarely see this for popular well-rated blockbusters, the thing is scrutinized on the Internet more than Justice League. The Internet today is no longer some niche corner that  no one pays attention to. A movie being divisive is not necessarily a bad thing, I don't get why people are so objected to admit something that's widely observable. 

Edited December 21, 2017 by NCsoft

[RichWS]

These conversations....madone.

 

[Hatebox]

No fuckin' way is this movie worse than Rogue One!

[LinksterAC]

4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

That imdb score is free falling, at 7.7 now, already below rogue one after a year, and 0.4 points below TFA after two years.

I got two video reviews in my sub box in one day from youtube movie reviewers, both are negative, most of user comments are negative, I very rarely see this for popular well-rated blockbusters, the thing is scrutinized on the Internet more than Justice League. The Internet today is no longer some niche corner that  no one pays attention to. A movie being divisive is not necessarily a bad thing, I don't get why people are so objected to admit something that's widely observable. 

I love this film because it's a great film.

I also love it because watching my Millennial nerd generation squirm like this is hilarious.  Especially since I think future generations are going to hold this film in extremely high regard.

[TheXper]

If TLJ has the same multiplier as R1, it will end at about 760M. Not bad. R1 was not this divisive though. TLJ is a critically solid film but with plot points sure to anger some fans for the same reasons it pleases others. Dunno if that will lead to a weaker multiplier than with R1.

 

With TFA's multiplier, we're looking at 830M. I don't think it's going to have that kind of multiplier unless the controversy actually fuels word-of-mouth and rewatches. Captain America: Civil War was not as controversial but it did have lots of debates surrounding it for a long time. Man of Steel was controversial but that didn't lead to good legs either (not that it was a darling with the critics to start with).

 

I guess we'll know for sure by Monday.

[TwoMisfits]

Just got off the phone with my brother...here's how surveys and real WOM differ...

My 1st question - "Did you like Star Wars?"

Answer - "It was fine - it was a blockbuster movie, what do you expect?"

My 2nd question - "Well, was it better than Thor: R?"

Answer - "No."

My 3rd question - "Was it at least better than Justice League?"

Answer - "No."

My 4th question - "Well, what grade would you give it?

Answer - "Okay 1st and 3rd acts - horrid 2nd act - no idea why it's in the movie - acts nothing like a sequel and is more like a James Bond movie...no reliance on material before for this movie." (Edit - No grade given, but I suggested C and he didn't seem like that was too high or low)

My 5th question - "Well, should I pay to see it?"

Answer - "Ummmm...if you're a fan, no.  But you're not, so it'd probably be fine."  (I say I read every Legacy book) "Okay, then you might wanna wait."

 

He would have given a "positive" score to a survey...but ummm, his WOM is not exactly encouraging to me for leg purposes:)...

Edited December 21, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[CenterMeOnSam]

13 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

That imdb score is free falling, at 7.7 now, already below rogue one after a year, and 0.4 points below TFA after two years.

I got two video reviews in my sub box in one day from youtube movie reviewers, both are negative, most of user comments are negative, I very rarely see this for popular well-rated blockbusters, the thing is scrutinized on the Internet more than Justice League. The Internet today is no longer some niche corner that  no one pays attention to. A movie being divisive is not necessarily a bad thing, I don't get why people are so objected to admit something that's widely observable. 

 

Because it's anecdotal.

Edited December 21, 2017 by CenterMeOnSam

[Brainbug]

This Holiday period is just strange...i think some here are overreacting because we arent familiar with this calendar configuration. Also, we're a bit spoiled, because the holidys for TFA in particular and R1 were awesome from the start. As far as im understanding it, TLJ's holiday boost will be far more backloaded.