Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[RandomCat]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Just got off the phone with my brother...here's how surveys and real WOM differ...

My 1st question - "Did you like Star Wars?"

Answer - "It was fine - it was a blockbuster movie, what do you expect?"

My 2nd question - "Well, was it better than Thor: R?"

Answer - "No."

My 3rd question - "Was it at least better than Justice League?"

Answer - "No."

My 4th question - "Well, what grade would you give it?

Answer - "Okay 1st and 3rd acts - horrid 2nd act - no idea why it's in the movie - acts nothing like a sequel and is more like a James Bond movie...no reliance on material before for this movie."

My 5th question - "Well, should I pay to see it?"

Answer - "Ummmm...if you're a fan, no.  But you're not, so it'd probably be fine."  (I say I read every Legacy book) "Okay, then you might wanna wait."

 

He would have given a "positive" score to a survey...but ummm, his WOM is not exactly encouraging to me for leg purposes:)...

 

Survey's aren't binary, and I'm not sure how you say he'd give it a positive score.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

This Holiday period is just strange...i think some here are overreacting because we arent familiar with this calendar configuration. Also, we're a bit spoiled, because the holidys for TFA in particular and R1 were awesome from the start. As far as im understanding it, TLJ's holiday boost will be far more backloaded.

 

The holidays were not "awesome" for Rogue One from the start. We do have 2006 data with the exact same calendar. I'm going to post this again and tell me what you think.

 

Looking at 2006, the 3-day weekend gross was around 3.5 to 4 times higher than the Wednesday gross for wide theater count holdover movies in release 15 days or less. Pursuit of Happyness appears to be an outlier with a 5.27 multiplier on the weekend compared to Wednesday.

$16.9m Wednesday x 5.27 (Pursuit of Happyness) = $89m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.99 (Eragon) = $68m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.87 (The Holiday) = $65.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.76 (Blood Diamond) = $63.5m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.75 (Charlotte's Web) = $63.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.45 (Apocalypto) = $58m

Honestly I think it would be doing great if it can get over $70m for the weekend.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

 

Survey's aren't binary, and I'm not sure how you say he'd give it a positive score.

B/c he said he would...I dove down into it and got those other answers:)...

[TheXper]

If my opening weekend prediction were based on online discussions about the movie and that curiously low RT score, I'd have predicted even less than 198 million. I kept expecting to see a sudden drop day after day but nothing drastic is yet to happen.

It's a Star Wars film. 'Everyone' is going to see it.

It shouldn't have any problem getting past 750M at this rate.

But this is 2017 (the franchise killer year), so failing to pass 650M, while unlikely, isn't impossible.

[Krissykins]

That’s slightly underwhelming for Jumanji considering they’re now talking about a “6 day opening” instead of 5.

 

Dreadful for Greatest Showman, which just bombed on arrival. 

 

Star Wars continues to decline. 

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The holidays were not "awesome" for Rogue One from the start. We do have 2006 data with the exact same calendar. I'm going to post this again and tell me what you think.

 

Looking at 2006, the 3-day weekend gross was around 3.5 to 4 times higher than the Wednesday gross for wide theater count holdover movies in release 15 days or less. Pursuit of Happyness appears to be an outlier with a 5.27 multiplier on the weekend compared to Wednesday.

$16.9m Wednesday x 5.27 (Pursuit of Happyness) = $89m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.99 (Eragon) = $68m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.87 (The Holiday) = $65.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.76 (Blood Diamond) = $63.5m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.75 (Charlotte's Web) = $63.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.45 (Apocalypto) = $58m

Honestly I think it would be doing great if it can get over $70m for the weekend.

 

Yeah youre right about RO, i looked its run up again and the boost came later than TFA.

 

Looking at these numbers, id agree that 70M would be a very solid number. 65M woudnt shock me too. Under 60M woundt be good. 75M+ is where we can really celebrate, me thinks.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The holidays were not "awesome" for Rogue One from the start. We do have 2006 data with the exact same calendar. I'm going to post this again and tell me what you think.

 

Looking at 2006, the 3-day weekend gross was around 3.5 to 4 times higher than the Wednesday gross for wide theater count holdover movies in release 15 days or less. Pursuit of Happyness appears to be an outlier with a 5.27 multiplier on the weekend compared to Wednesday.

$16.9m Wednesday x 5.27 (Pursuit of Happyness) = $89m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.99 (Eragon) = $68m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.87 (The Holiday) = $65.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.76 (Blood Diamond) = $63.5m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.75 (Charlotte's Web) = $63.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.45 (Apocalypto) = $58m

Honestly I think it would be doing great if it can get over $70m for the weekend.

I feel like data from 2006 is gonna be useless considering how much the box office landscape has changed since.

[DAR]

19 minutes ago, RichWS said:

These conversations....madone.

 

I thought the term was marone.   Now let's argue for the next 10-20 pages bringing up the same exact arguments

[Valonqar]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Just got off the phone with my brother...here's how surveys and real WOM differ...

My 1st question - "Did you like Star Wars?"

Answer - "It was fine - it was a blockbuster movie, what do you expect?"

My 2nd question - "Well, was it better than Thor: R?"

Answer - "No."

 

[Killimano3]

I must admit I became extremely excited to see this film after hearing all the whining from the fans, and the lengths those fans were going to to pretend like they were leading some kind of revolution against Disney.

 

But honestly I was pretty disappointed, not with the film but with what pissed people off. I mean, the I really loved it but even if you didn't particularly care for it I can't imagine how these choices could offend anyone so much more then anything else i've seen in star wars or other films.

 

I honestly laughed when after the flim some big neckbeard guy got up and grumbled "I need to fucking strangle somebody". Like damn, calm down dude, it's not that big a deal XD

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

Because it's anecdotal.

This, I am not sure people are not saying there is not some Internet disaprovable of the movie.

 

The question is more, how many non-random negative reaction about movie that will be seen by 200 million people does it need to become relevant ? 5 millions of them ? 10 million ?

 

That is a lot and not something one can manually look up by himself.

 

The example of avatar is not a bad one, would not be easy to find a more bashed movie on the Internet, yet:

 

Yet the list of the movie that openned at 20m or more with a better multiplier in history:

Mrs. Doubtfire, Forest Gump, Titanic

 

And those were all below 25m openning.

 

It got an A cinemascore, was one of the best selling bluray on the domestic market for a long time (while selling more dvds than bluray being released in 2010) :

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/alltime-bluray-sales-chart

1	Frozen	7,528,209	$159,290,829	Mar 18, 2014
2	Avatar	7,410,171	$163,439,047	Apr 22, 2010
3	Despicable Me 2	5,931,537	$115,192,392	Dec 10, 2013
4	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	5,758,728	$147,098,346	Apr 1, 2016
5	The Avengers	5,237,630	$119,939,644	Sep 25, 2012
6	Beauty and the Beast	4,461,804	$101,673,635	Oct 8, 2002
7	Jurassic World	4,053,126	$93,635,782	Oct 20, 2015
8	The Dark Knight Rises	3,940,789	$80,265,630	Dec 4, 2012
9	Guardians of the Galaxy	3,921,372	$82,350,359	Dec 9, 2014
10	Despicable Me	3,756,383	$77,749,481	Dec 14, 2010

 

 

Is there any randomize data ever showing Avatar not has widely beloved ?

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, filmlover said:

I feel like data from 2006 is gonna be useless considering how much the box office landscape has changed since.

 

People keep saying look at the calendar. Well 2006 is the best we can do in terms of looking at the calendar.

 

We will just have to see how it goes. Personally I don't think it does much better than $75m for the 3-day this coming weekend. I do think Monday/Tuesday have potential to be incredible numbers pushing $40m each.

[RthDeadWov]

3 hours ago, hw64 said:

Deadline yesterday:[Tuesday], ComScore reported 17% K-12 schools out. Today [Wednesday] that figure jumps to 24%, then 39% on Thursday and 61% on Friday.

Deadline today:What’s been slowing down numbers this week is that there aren’t as many kids out of school as a year ago, read 17% K-12 were off on Wednesday versus 38% last year.

So which is it?

The top one

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Honestly, Deadline had 31% of students off Monday before that changed...seems the numbers keep changing as the movie keeps not hitting what would be good holds off OW...might help if they actually nailed down the student info once and for all and didn't change it daily...

31% is k-12 + college  

Wed 39% total (k-12+ college) last year 57%

 

[B D Joe]

I've already forgotten most of Thor Ragnarok except for Korg.  He makes me silly laugh when I remember some of his lines.

[Brainbug]

From 17% to 24% thats really not that big of a jump. Now from 24% to 39% today is more interesting. Using the 2006 calendar, TLJ should increase today. Rocky doesnt count btw, since it was a Wednesday opener.

 

1	ROCKY BALBOA MGM 2,752	N/A	N/A	$6,204,105 -- / $2,254 $6,204,105 / 1	$3,489,109 -43.8% / $1,268 $9,693,214 / 2
2	THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS Sony / Columbia 2,852	$2,877,841 -59.2% / $1,009 $29,419,550 / 4	$2,856,735 -0.7% / $1,002 $32,276,285 / 5	$2,806,095 -1.8% / $984 $35,082,380 / 6	$3,204,515 +14.2% / $1,124 $38,286,895 / 7
3	CHARLOTTE'S WEB (2006) Paramount 3,566	$1,396,750 -58.4% / $392 $12,854,103 / 4	$1,599,572 +14.5% / $449 $14,453,675 / 5	$2,019,086 +26.2% / $566 $16,472,761 / 6	$2,336,705 +15.7% / $655 $18,809,466 / 7
4	ERAGON Fox 3,020	$1,792,661 -68.8% / $594 $25,032,568 / 4	$1,731,047 -3.4% / $573 $26,763,615 / 5	$1,755,458 +1.4% / $581 $28,519,073 / 6	$1,976,629 +12.6% / $655 $30,495,702 / 7
5	HAPPY FEET Warner Bros. 3,335	$926,426 -63.7% / $278 $150,171,217 / 32	$1,046,298 +12.9% / $314 $151,217,515 / 33	$1,193,432 +14.1% / $358 $152,410,947 / 34	$1,545,216 +29.5% / $463 $153,956,163 / 35
6	THE HOLIDAY Sony / Columbia 2,614	$1,105,023 -50.4% / $423 $26,230,075 / 11	$1,203,720 +8.9% / $460 $27,433,795 / 12	$1,252,688 +4.1% / $479 $28,686,483 / 13	$1,406,479 +12.3% / $538 $30,092,962 / 14
7	THE NATIVITY STORY New Line 2,574	$676,000 (estimate) -60.9% / $263 $23,689,000 / 18	$784,000 (estimate) +16% / $305 $24,473,000 / 19	$1,018,000 (estimate) +29.8% / $395 $25,491,000 / 20	$1,194,000 (estimate) +17.3% / $464 $26,684,831 / 21
8	APOCALYPTO Buena Vista 2,465	$913,376 -65% / $371 $29,122,908 / 11	$886,540 -2.9% / $360 $30,009,448 / 12	$830,143 -6.4% / $337 $30,839,591 / 13	$884,565 +6.6% / $359 $31,724,156 / 14
9	BLOOD DIAMOND Warner Bros. 1,910	$798,365 -57.8% / $418 $19,435,622 / 11	$867,335 +8.6% / $454 $20,302,957 / 12	$832,400 -4% / $436 $21,135,357 / 13	$867,393 +4.2% / $454 $22,002,750 / 14
10	CASINO ROYALE Sony / Columbia 2,214	$690,009 -55.3% / $283 $138,191,393 / 32	$758,665 +10% / $311 $138,950,058 / 33	$754,817 -0.5% / $341 $139,704,875 / 34	$864,525 +14.5% / $390 $140,569,400 / 35

[75Live]

5 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

I've already forgotten most of Thor Ragnarok except for Korg.  He makes me silly laugh when I remember some of his lines.

 

that's more accurate for me    

[Lordmandeep]

56 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

Hi. I'd like to interject science and math again.

 

We have a new survey out which was done by SurveyMonkey.

 

89% of audiences either liked or loved the movie. 

 

That falls rather closely in line with the other scientific survey, Cinema Score, which gave it an A and is in line with PostTrak as well.

 

It also falls in line with an RT score of 93% and an MT score of 86.

 

I will repeat, again, the film is not as divisive as the loud voices on the internet want you to believe. 

 

 

You do realize that 90% people liking TLJ and TFA is totally different.

 

TFA has liked it was awesome..

 

This time Its more  like it  but I had Problems with X, Y, Z

 

That is different and why the film will have less repeat business. 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

From 17% to 24% thats really not that big of a jump. Now from 24% to 39% today is more interesting. Using the 2006 calendar, TLJ should increase today. Rocky doesnt count btw, since it was a Wednesday opener.

 

1	ROCKY BALBOA MGM 2,752	N/A	N/A	$6,204,105 -- / $2,254 $6,204,105 / 1	$3,489,109 -43.8% / $1,268 $9,693,214 / 2
2	THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS Sony / Columbia 2,852	$2,877,841 -59.2% / $1,009 $29,419,550 / 4	$2,856,735 -0.7% / $1,002 $32,276,285 / 5	$2,806,095 -1.8% / $984 $35,082,380 / 6	$3,204,515 +14.2% / $1,124 $38,286,895 / 7
3	CHARLOTTE'S WEB (2006) Paramount 3,566	$1,396,750 -58.4% / $392 $12,854,103 / 4	$1,599,572 +14.5% / $449 $14,453,675 / 5	$2,019,086 +26.2% / $566 $16,472,761 / 6	$2,336,705 +15.7% / $655 $18,809,466 / 7
4	ERAGON Fox 3,020	$1,792,661 -68.8% / $594 $25,032,568 / 4	$1,731,047 -3.4% / $573 $26,763,615 / 5	$1,755,458 +1.4% / $581 $28,519,073 / 6	$1,976,629 +12.6% / $655 $30,495,702 / 7
5	HAPPY FEET Warner Bros. 3,335	$926,426 -63.7% / $278 $150,171,217 / 32	$1,046,298 +12.9% / $314 $151,217,515 / 33	$1,193,432 +14.1% / $358 $152,410,947 / 34	$1,545,216 +29.5% / $463 $153,956,163 / 35
6	THE HOLIDAY Sony / Columbia 2,614	$1,105,023 -50.4% / $423 $26,230,075 / 11	$1,203,720 +8.9% / $460 $27,433,795 / 12	$1,252,688 +4.1% / $479 $28,686,483 / 13	$1,406,479 +12.3% / $538 $30,092,962 / 14
7	THE NATIVITY STORY New Line 2,574	$676,000 (estimate) -60.9% / $263 $23,689,000 / 18	$784,000 (estimate) +16% / $305 $24,473,000 / 19	$1,018,000 (estimate) +29.8% / $395 $25,491,000 / 20	$1,194,000 (estimate) +17.3% / $464 $26,684,831 / 21
8	APOCALYPTO Buena Vista 2,465	$913,376 -65% / $371 $29,122,908 / 11	$886,540 -2.9% / $360 $30,009,448 / 12	$830,143 -6.4% / $337 $30,839,591 / 13	$884,565 +6.6% / $359 $31,724,156 / 14
9	BLOOD DIAMOND Warner Bros. 1,910	$798,365 -57.8% / $418 $19,435,622 / 11	$867,335 +8.6% / $454 $20,302,957 / 12	$832,400 -4% / $436 $21,135,357 / 13	$867,393 +4.2% / $454 $22,002,750 / 14
10	CASINO ROYALE Sony / Columbia 2,214	$690,009 -55.3% / $283 $138,191,393 / 32	$758,665 +10% / $311 $138,950,058 / 33	$754,817 -0.5% / $341 $139,704,875 / 34	$864,525 +14.5% / $390 $140,569,400 / 35

 

I'll go with about $19.5m Thursday, which is roughly a 15% increase. That's similar to what all three of the December 15th wide release openers did in 2006 (Pursuit, Eragon, Charlotte). The good increase today is precisely why it's unlikely to jump much more than 50% on Friday.

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The holidays were not "awesome" for Rogue One from the start. We do have 2006 data with the exact same calendar. I'm going to post this again and tell me what you think.

 

Looking at 2006, the 3-day weekend gross was around 3.5 to 4 times higher than the Wednesday gross for wide theater count holdover movies in release 15 days or less. Pursuit of Happyness appears to be an outlier with a 5.27 multiplier on the weekend compared to Wednesday.

$16.9m Wednesday x 5.27 (Pursuit of Happyness) = $89m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.99 (Eragon) = $68m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.87 (The Holiday) = $65.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.76 (Blood Diamond) = $63.5m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.75 (Charlotte's Web) = $63.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.45 (Apocalypto) = $58m

Honestly I think it would be doing great if it can get over $70m for the weekend.

These days wed looses some of it's money to tuesday due to discount tuesday. we don't know how much tuesday would have dropped compared to the actual -6% on a non-discount tuesday and how much would have spilled over to wednesday.

 

Also i feel that the above mentioned movies posting smaller numbers and none of them being sequels were back-loaded in general. sw8 on the other hand already has the momentum early on due to the hype. i don't think sw8 can show the massive jumps in new years weekend that some of the 2006 movies showed so it should certainly cross 70m this weekend.

[CenterMeOnSam]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

You do realize that 90% people liking TLJ and TFA is totally different.

 

This time I like it  but I had Problems with X, Y, Z

 

 

That is the problem with such data. 

 

What? The survey is on TLJ not TFA. What are you talking about?