Fancyarcher Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Mojoguy said: Would you guys think SONY will it do a Jumanji sequel if it just makes 200m DOM? I had been hoping for 250m since I really liked the movie, but if 200m makes it less likely for a sequel... I feel the same way about Wonder Woman, loved the movie but the sequel could be another Thor 2 or Iron man 2. Yeah, I know MONEY, but sometimes it it better to do a mic drop after surprising everybody. Over 200m would have still guaranteed a sequel given that the budget was only 90m, and less successful films have gotten sequels before. I understand the concern though. In regards to Wonder Woman, I have confidence that Jenkins and co can pull off a worthy follow-up. 2 minutes ago, dudalb said: And the first really good news at the box office Sony had has for some time. And given how Franchise hungry Sony is....and it seems it is going to lose one of it's really big franchises with 007 leaving...you can bet your butt Sony with try to turn Jumanji into a franchise. Well Sony is no more franchise hungry then your average studio these days, but they certainly can try and make sequel. I'm seeing Jumanji later this afternoon, and I hope I have a good time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, dudalb said: No Brainer for Sony, which right now only has the Spidey Franchise locked up. Yep.. Its a no brainer.. Get a good script and keep the budget around 125-150 mill with a few of the same actors.. Release 2020 around the same period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gokai Red Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This reply is a little late, but I feel like it has to be said. I've been here on BOT for about 4 years now, since the craziness of the Catching Fire/Frozen runs. And I've been following box office for almost 10 years now (Cloverfield was the movie that got me into following movies and box office). But when I came here, I posted every once in a while, learning what I could, asking questions, comparing movies, what have you. And it's always great seeing new posters and movies break out and break records, and it's sometimes even fun to see a movie underperform and the meltdowns that ensue. But why are the some of the newest people here, or people that apparently haven't followed box office for so long going onto these forums, trying to be the loudest in the room, being disrespectful to our mods and our senior members, and doubting Rth and Empire? Especially this last part. It really grinds my gears seeing people go into someone else's community and act like they run the show. Ask questions, please. I love discussion, but there's a reason our two sources get 20+ likes every time they post numbers, because they know, and we all know they know. 99% of the time, they're right within 5%, if not less. We're lucky they even give us anything, and it's good to see people that are actually a part of the industry on the inside care enough to share their information with us. And I'm not trying to single out any of the current new members, but in general, I've seen this happen frequently every time there's a new big movie that causes an influx of new members, there's always a few that like to come in and be disrespectful. We're all here because we care about movies and box office, so why not try to make it a pleasant experience for everyone? 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, John Marston said: 670m or so is a great Number on its own but to say under 700m was expected is revisionist That's because TLJ was overpredicted like crazy. Look at any movie with a record breaking DOM run. How many have a sequel that drops only 10-20%? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, grey ghost said: That's because TLJ was overpredicted like crazy. Look at any movie with a record breaking DOM run. How many have a sequel that drops only 10-20%? Yeah, I wouldn't diminish TLJ's total (whatever it ends up being) because some of us crazy fanboys overpredicted it like crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Gokai Red said: This reply is a little late, but I feel like it has to be said. I've been here on BOT for about 4 years now, since the craziness of the Catching Fire/Frozen runs. And I've been following box office for almost 10 years now (Cloverfield was the movie that got me into following movies and box office). But when I came here, I posted every once in a while, learning what I could, asking questions, comparing movies, what have you. And it's always great seeing new posters and movies break out and break records, and it's sometimes even fun to see a movie underperform and the meltdowns that ensue. But why are the some of the newest people here, or people that apparently haven't followed box office for so long going onto these forums, trying to be the loudest in the room, being disrespectful to our mods and our senior members, and doubting Rth and Empire? Especially this last part. It really grinds my gears seeing people go into someone else's community and act like they run the show. Ask questions, please. I love discussion, but there's a reason our two sources get 20+ likes every time they post numbers, because they know, and we all know they know. 99% of the time, they're right within 5%, if not less. We're lucky they even give us anything, and it's good to see people that are actually a part of the industry on the inside care enough to share their information with us. And I'm not trying to single out any of the current new members, but in general, I've seen this happen frequently every time there's a new big movie that causes an influx of new members, there's always a few that like to come in and be disrespectful. We're all here because we care about movies and box office, so why not try to make it a pleasant experience for everyone? Fantastic post. I've only been here since last year when ROGUE ONE came out, but I've been following and learning about the box office for several years now, and even I'm having to take a step back and re-evaluate how I'm contributing to the discussion. It doesn't mean I don't still stand by most of my opinions but I'm trying to remember to ask more than say until I've got as good a grasp on the subject as most here. It doesn't help that I'm a Star Wars fanatic either. I'm usually pretty level headed but the bias and emotions are a real thing. I sometimes call people out for being fanboys and getting emotional one way or the other about how their movies are doing and suddenly I've found myself on the other side just a bit. Edited December 28, 2017 by JB33 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said: Over 200m would have still guaranteed a sequel given that the budget was only 90m, and less successful films have gotten sequels before. I understand the concern though. In regards to Wonder Woman, I have confidence that Jenkins and co can pull off a worthy follow-up. Well Sony is no more franchise hungry then your average studio these days, but they certainly can try and make sequel. I'm seeing Jumanji later this afternoon, and I hope I have a good time. Sony is a big hungrier then most studios for franchises because right now it only has one popular frachise...the Spiderman Franchise. It's seems certain that Sony will lose it's other big franchise with James Bond almost certainly leaving, so Sony is probably a bit more desperate them most studio to get a viable franchise. Paramount might be the only other studio in such poor shape as far as franchises go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Some actuals to go with the TLJ est: Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… Walt Disney $21,500,000 -22% 4,232 $5,080 $444,861,767 13 - (-) Pitch Perfect 3 Universal $6,450,190 -13% 3,447 $1,871 $40,320,585 6 - (-) Downsizing Paramount Pictures $1,469,512 -24% 2,668 $551 $11,066,055 6 - (-) Darkest Hour Focus Features $1,381,400 -9% 806 $1,714 $11,267,232 36 - (-) Molly’s Game STX Entertainment $597,563 -11% 271 $2,205 $2,307,888 3 - (-) Lady Bird A24 $407,045 -5% 402 $1,013 $29,550,827 55 - (-) Daddy’s Home 2 Paramount Pictures $331,646 -23% 1,073 $309 $100,516,397 48 - (-) The Disaster Artist A24 $295,234 -6% 517 $571 $16,630,573 27 - (-) Phantom Thread Focus Features $58,237 -13% 4 $14,559 $252,242 3 - (-) A Bad Moms Christmas STX Entertainment $50,692 -12% 275 $184 $71,679,876 57 - (-) The Florida Project A24 $12,452 -5% 43 $290 $5,230,450 83 - (-) Hostiles Entertainment Studi… $7,617 +58% 3 $2,539 $44,906 6 - (-) Victoria and Abdul Focus Features $4,795 +9% 24 $200 $22,214,930 97 - (-) Marshall Open Road $2,249 -11% 58 $39 $9,455,288 76 - (-) The Killing of a Sacred Deer A24 $857 -15% 8 $107 $2,290,949 69 - (-) Let There Be Light Atlas Distribution $832 +174% 8 $104 $7,206,620 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the beast Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) Prediction Totals For Movies (Numbers are weekly): Jumanji: Dec 22: 103.4m (120m) Dec 29: 82.7m (202.7m) Jan 5: 37.2m (239.9m) Jan 12: 30.7m (270.6m) Jan 19: 15m (285.6m) Jan 26: 10.5m (296.1m) Feb 2: 6.1m (302.2m) Feb 9: 3m (305.2m) $310m (8.5x) This is using drops from Night at the Museum and Sing and altering them to be a bit worse Thought it would of hit around sing numbers but I really cant see under 270m+ looking into it Edited December 28, 2017 by the beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoLegMan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 If it felt like i've talked over any members I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikee11 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Porthos said: Some actuals to go with the TLJ est: why does this website have everything but Jumanji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, mikee11 said: why does this website have everything but Jumanji? Jumnanji hasn't released an actual yet, possibly not even an estimate (haven't checked yet). This particular website doesn't like to release estimated numbers, especially for films that aren't at the top of the charts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) Worldwide update: Edited December 28, 2017 by JB33 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 For those asking Sony is one of those studios that won't give actuals until after the 1st. Not every studio is fully open during the holidays hence why we get estimates for some. Nothing abnormal, used to be that way for most of them until a few years back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
langer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Since when are 10-20% drops from a record breaking previous movie NORMAL? The only example I can think of is Spider-man 2. Yet TLJ is about to drop 30%... Here's a look at other record breaking follow up as far as OW is concerned. TLJ is looking to be towards the bottom of this list. Batman Forever increased 13% SM2 dropped 8%, TDKR dropped 15%, HP2 dropped 18%, AoU dropped 26% POTC 3 dropped 27% TLW dropped 35% Batman & Robin dropped 42% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This is using drops from Night at the Museum and Sing and altering them to be a bit worse The Jumanji holds in January won't be as good as Museum, but Jumanji does have a $30m lead after Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Coco's holiday run has been somewhat underwhelming. It came into the holidays about 8M behind Moana with pretty comparable dailies and will probably end up 35M or so behind Moana on New Years Day despite much lower direct animated competition. Jumanji and TLJ probably hurt it a lot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 hours ago, Hermia said: STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI $21.5M Wednesday (North America) $26.7M Wednesday (Overseas) $891.8M GLOBAL TOTAL... https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/946419805795393536 @FantasticBeasts wow great prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the beast Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Mojoguy said: The Jumanji holds in January won't be as good as Museum, but Jumanji does have a $30m lead after Christmas Day. I used Sings drops for after new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoLegMan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, langer said: Yet TLJ is about to drop 30%... Here's a look at other record breaking follow up as far as OW is concerned. TLJ is looking to be towards the bottom of this list. Batman Forever increased 13% SM2 dropped 8%, TDKR dropped 15%, HP2 dropped 18%, AoU dropped 26% POTC 3 dropped 27% TLW dropped 35% Batman & Robin dropped 42% to be fair TFA did overperform. and Avengers overperformed the sequel saw a 26% drop, this may be playing like that. Edited December 28, 2017 by NoLegMan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
