Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

 

So what you're saying is...

 

Bon Appetite....

[Cooper Legion]

So I was poking around Box office mojo trying to find evidence of a “Cinco De Mayo effect” in past years...  

 

and it’s totally impossible, because all the previous cinco de mayo weekends everything is hopelessly confounded by a humongous Marvel movie opening that weekend.     

 

Maybe if they move A4 up we can see how Cinco De Mayo Sunday goes.

Edited May 7, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Mekanos]

This movie's box office has been like a damn roller coaster.

 

I bet 115 million and I hope I get that one right, at least.

[Zakiyyah6]

The drop is in line with well received MCU sequels like Winter Soldier and Guardians of the Galaxy 2. Of course the 3rd weekend drop will tell far more of the story.

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The drop is in line with well received MCU sequels like Winter Soldier and Guardians of the Galaxy 2. Of course the 3rd weekend drop will tell far more of the story.

 

Worth noting it's trending ahead of both when you account for the weekdays.

[Mekanos]

How close can IW get to 600 million before DP2 opens? TWS's calcs take it to about 560M but that seems a bit low.

Edited May 7, 2018 by Mekanos

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Worth noting it's trending ahead of both when you account for the weekdays.

It also had $39m in previews - a far larger % of the w/e than the preview #s for the other movies   It's FSS drop is about 47.6%.  GOTG2's was 50% and TWS - 51.4%.  Avengers was 45.4%

Edited May 7, 2018 by TalismanRing

[IronJimbo]

excitements gone now... now what

[Spidey Freak]

17 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

excitements gone now... now what

Chances of sinking Titanic still look good

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Spidey Freak said:

Chances of sinking Titanic still look good

That was locked in my mind after the opening weekend, it's mad that it may not

[wildphantom]

I don’t see $700 million either. 

Deadpool and Solo will see to that. $660-670 million I think is where it’ll land. 

 

Deadpool is going to be huge when it opens. Big old drop for IW coming that weekend. 

[Cooper Legion]

24 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

excitements gone now... now what

Still a bit of excitement with Titanic WW, though it’s a stretch. 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Still a bit of excitement with Titanic WW, though it’s a stretch. 

True, true. Have to wait til China on that one.

 

[Dandeak2000]

Best 2nd Fridays ($27.5M+)

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $49.3M (December 2015, Christmas Day)

2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $31.6M (November 2013, Black Friday)

3. Avengers: Infinity War $31.4M (May 2018, could maybe go up with actuals?)

4. Marvel's The Avengers $29.2M (May 2012)

5. Jurassic World $29.1M (June 2015)

6. Black Panther $28.8M (February 2018)

 

Best 2nd Saturdays ($35M+)

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $57.3M (December 2015, Day after Christmas)

2. Black Panther $47.6M (February 2018)

3. Avengers: Infinity War $46.6M (May 2018, could go up with actuals)

4. Marvel's The Avengers $42.9M (May 2012)

5. Jurassic World $39.1M (June 2015)

6. Beauty and the Beast $38.3M (March 2017)

 

Best 2nd Sundays ($27.5M+)

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $43.1M (December 2015, Christmas weekend)

2. Jurassic World $38.4M (June 2015)

3. Avengers: Infinity War $36M (May 2018)

4. Black Panther $35.3M (February 2018)

5. Marvel's The Avengers $30.9M (May 2012)

6. Beauty and the Beast $28.5M (March 2017)

 

Top 2nd weekends ($90M+)

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $149.2M (December 2015, Christmas weekend)

2. Avengers: Infinity War $114.1M (May 2018, could go up with actuals if Friday or Sunday were underestimated)

3. Black Panther $111.7M (February 2018)

4. Jurassic World $106.6M (June 2015)

5. Marvel's The Avengers $103.1M (May 2012)

6. Beauty and the Beast $90.4M (March 2018)

 

[stripe]

So in the end, around 114M 2nd weekend

#nothatbad

Let's see if it stabilizes a bit in its 3rd weekend. It would be great if it grosses 65M+. That would mean over 550M in 17 days.

 

[fabiopazzo2]

50 minutes ago, stripe said:

So in the end, around 114M 2nd weekend

#nothatbad

Let's see if it stabilizes a bit in its 3rd weekend. It would be great if it grosses 65M+. That would mean over 550M in 17 days.

 

55/60M for me 

[baumer]

9 hours ago, MikeQ said:

I know there are some that are disappointed with Infinity War's second weekend gross, but I think it's second weekend drop is quite strong for the (highly anticipated) third film in a series coming off the largest opening weekend of all time in April/May. Could be an even slightly better drop with actuals.

 

2nd Weekend Drops for Films with $150+ million Opening Weekends

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens: -39.8% (Christmas Holiday weekend /w no Christmas Eve)
2. Black Panther: -44.7%
3. Beauty and the Beast: -48.3%
4. Jurassic World: -49.0% (Father’s Day Sunday)
5. Marvel’s The Avengers: -50.3%
6. The Dark Knight: -52.5%
7. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire: -53.1% (U.S. Thanksgiving weekend)
8. Avengers: Infinity War: -56.4%
9. Iron Man 3: -58.4%
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story: -58.7%
11. Avengers: Age of Ultron: -59.4%
12. Captain America: Civil War: -59.5%
13. The Dark Knight Rises: -61.4%
14. Spider-Man 3: -61.5%
15. The Hunger Games: -61.6%
16. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: -67.5% (Christmas Eve fell on weekend)
17. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice: -69.1%
18. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: -72.0%

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Excellent analysis, Mike.  

[baumer]

8 hours ago, MikeQ said:

Fair enough. There is always a subjective element to interpreting box office statistics and such. I will also put it another way though.

 

The overall weekend drop for the second weekend for huge and highly anticipated blockbuster films can disguise what are actually good drops Saturday-to-Saturday and Sunday-to-Sunday, because of the large preview grosses that inflate the opening weekend Friday. I mentioned this earlier in the week when I was discussing my predicted final multiplier range for Infinity War. Huge preview grosses often inevitably make for a larger second weekend drop because of the significant Friday-to-Friday drop.

 

So, if we take a look at Infinity War's Fri-to-Fri, Sat-to-Sat, and Sun-to-Sun drops with estimates, we see:

 

Fri: -70.4%

Sat: -43.2%

Sun: -50.3% (this could be sub-50% too with actuals, as the Sunday is merely the studios projection)

 

The Fri-to-Fri drop skews the overall weekend drop, thanks to large previews and the new era of including preview grosses into the weekend gross.

 

We see this with other big blockbusters too:

 

Age of Ultron: FRI: -74.9%, SAT: -40.1%, SUN: -54.9%

Civil War: FRI: -74%, SAT: -47.8%, SUN: -50.4%

 

Compare these to blockbuster films that had smaller previews that consisted of a smaller share of their opening Friday gross (22-23% share as opposed to ~33% with the above films):

 

The Avengers: FRI: -63.8%, SAT: -38.3%, SUN: -45.8%

Jurassic World: Fri: -64.5%, SAT: -43.8%, SUN: -32.9% (Father's Day)

 

It seems to me then that large preview grosses (for hugely anticipated films with large opening days as is) often inevitably lead to a larger second weekend drop. Infinity War made $106.3M in its opening day, the second largest opening day of all time, and of which 37% was from previews. That opening day is behind only The Force Awakens (a film which I think can only be understood as an outlier, given the franchise, the years of pent up nostalgia, the perfect December holiday calendar, etc).

 

This is all to say that taken as a whole, I think Infinity War's second weekend gross (and drop) are good. Maybe they could have been better, but maybe not. This is the highly anticipated third film in a series we're talking about. But, honestly, what do I know. I pull out stats all the time, but it doesn't mean I'm right. Sometimes I'm a little too numbers focused. The beauty of box office is that there is gut, intuition, intangibles, etc, involved.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Even better analysis Mike. 

[baumer]

7 hours ago, vc2002 said:

What's up with the RTH guess-the-number game?

 

Where have you been for the last 2 years?

[Krissykins]

Any word on why Overboard only fell 5% on Sunday?