HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[MrGamer]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

I still dont get btw why we wont get an Old Republic movie or trilogy. Theres SO MUCH you can do with that material, so many possible new awesome characters, planets and storys! Its literally a goldmine that Lucasfilm just ignores lol.

Because we need to get a Tosche Station origin film with Luke showing up at the end to get his first set of power converters. 

[Ithil]

15 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Seeing the wreckage of IPs that have tried to imitate MCU is truly staggering now. Of attempts to crank out a connected universe with different franchises and main/crossover vs side/solo movies, the Conjuringverse is doing fine, as is the Monsterverse for now, but everyone else is hitting rocky waters, including now Star Wars.          

They're all lessons in how-to and how-not-to. The Conjuringverse and Monsterverse have been handled really well and both avoided the pitfall of trying to "make their own MCU". Instead they did their own thing and have made their niches, and didn't try so hard to make a "universe" on screen.

 

The DARK UNIVERSE is a how-to guide on everything to do wrong, by comparison. You could make a college class using it and the DCEU.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Ithil

[Ozymandias]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

The problem is the "additional material" they are using as the basis of the TV show is pretty thin;just a outline not much meat on it.

And I note that one reason why the Hobbit trilogy was so disspointing is so much of was pretty much pulled out of PJ' butt with little or no roots in the Tolkien novel. I am not a purist but something which takes maybe on paragraph from the Appendices and tries to expand that into a three out plotline for a movie or TV series is going to make me suspicious.

The problem with The Hobbit was two-fold, the studio wanted 3 movies late in the game and Peter Jackson is on record multiple times saying he didn't want to do it.  It was pretty much "oh fine I'll do it" after Del Toro left.  His heart just wasn't in it.  PJ and Co spent like 5 years on preproduction on LOTR, with the Hobbit it was like not much more than 1.

 

A skilled writer can mold a great narrative and characters out of a skeleton outline.  The Fall of Numenor is one.  It seems like the first season will be about Aragorn and his backstory/upbringing which would be a lot easier.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The efficiency in storytelling is crazy. Within 30 minutes we have seen Peter and Norman's backstory, both their transformations, Uncle Ben's death and the Spidey suit. CBMs take till the middle of the movie or the end of the third act to get to that point now.

That's what I'm noticing. I haven't watched the movie in a while but compared to other CBM it's really great in the story telling aspect. And the crazy thing is it's only 2 hours long. So it's able to introduce all these characters to us, give us a reason to care about them and still not manage to have a ridiculous run time. It gets to the point without feeling rushed. 

 

Also the VFX in it looks better than some big budget films do today. 

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Spider-man and Spider-Man 2>>>>>>>>most CBM released today 

Final fix.

[dudalb]

Just now, Brainbug said:

I still dont get btw why we wont get an Old Republic movie or trilogy. Theres SO MUCH you can do with that material, so many possible new awesome characters, planets and storys! Its literally a goldmine that Lucasfilm just ignores lol.

I would love a Old Republic series of films, but IMHO it's the fear that the GA are totally unfamiliar with the Old Republic, and it too risky to do  a Star Wars film with a totally new background and no charecters the Public is familiar with. To a degree, I think the curse of SW is it has been so successful that Lucasarts is afraid that a radically new idea would upset the Cash Cow.

But now that the Cash Cow is, for the first time, not giving milk they might take a second look at some new ideas...

[John Marston]

Just now, Nova said:

That's what I'm noticing. I haven't watched the movie in a while but compared to other CBM it's really great in the story telling aspect. And the crazy thing is it's only 2 hours long. So it's able to introduce all these characters to us, give us a reason to care about them and still not manage to have a ridiculous run time. It gets to the point without feeling rushed. 

 

Also the VFX in it looks better than some big budget films do today. 

Hope you’re not talking about Spider-Man 1 which had awful FX

[Hunch]

3 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

Doctor Strange grossed 200M+ more than Solo will

 

 

The actress is Vietnamese

Mess

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, Pandamia! said:

Somewhere well below 1% but not 0%.  Perhaps Trump starts a nuclear war or something, or an epidemic wipes out 80% of our population.  Kind of far fetched Black Swan type of evens but that doesn’t mean they’re impossible.

 

People don’t understand probability or statistics and it leads to a lot of misunderstanding and false claims.  People want certainty, but reality is far from certain.

 

I probably would have said a Star Wars movie under 200m would be 0% prior to this if I misused statistics, and then I would have been wrong and foolish (it probably still won’t go under, but gosh it might get close if these numbers don’t brighten).

 

Also getting a call right doesn’t confirm these 0%\100% certain claims, it means you picked an event that was either probable (or not) and got lucky.  People like to give forecasters of all sorts shit because they give ranges but they’re being responsible with how they interpret and present their data.

No, I’m very careful with my statistics, and I completely agree that it is not literally 0. As you say, perhaps the world ends before AM&tW can even be released, or some other kind of national level black swan event.     

 

My point is more that the chance to go below 10M is something like 10^-9, so people in everyday conservation will round that to 0 and hopefully it is understood what is meant. Likewise, the chance of going below 200M is something like 10^-3, maybe. That’s the kind of number that can also be reasonably rounded to 0 is this context, as long as everyone remains aware that of course no real world future events are ever actually exactly equal to 0%.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Hunch said:

The most obvious way would be to cast well-known Chinese actors and do intense promo there.

 

Although Chinese audiences didn't seem to give a damn about Rose (I also heard some rumblings that they did not like the interracial romance at all)

Already tried:

 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3748528/fullcredits

Donnie Yen

...

Chirrut Îmwe

Wen Jiang

...

Baze Malbus

 

Star Wars got one if not the biggest Hollywood movie promo ever in that market:

 

http://creativity-online.com/work/star-wars-great-wall/43856

 

Awaken had a good opening weekend there.

 

It is not like they didn't tried.

 

 

[Nova]

Just now, John Marston said:

Hope you’re not talking about Spider-Man 1 which had awful FX

I am talking about Spider-Man 1 and I never said it had great VFX. I said it had better  VFX than some of the major blockbusters released today. 

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I still dont get btw why we wont get an Old Republic movie or trilogy. Theres SO MUCH you can do with that material, so many possible new awesome characters, planets and storys! Its literally a goldmine that Lucasfilm just ignores lol.

Old Republic, Jedi/Sith War are basically LOTR in space. Beyond epic. Some AIW reviews favorably commented on AIW's LOTR feel. So it's MCU that has capitalized on it while SW, that has that material, is still stirring clear. I don't get it. 

 

 

[Mekanos]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Hope you’re not talking about Spider-Man 1 which had awful FX

Still look better than Black Panther 

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, dudalb said:

And made 880 Million World Wide. The Bond franchise for a number of years, has made it's big bucks overseas.

But then I expect a Star Wars fan to hate the James Bond Franchise. It's SW's main competition ..when adjusted figures are used..for the most successful franchise of all time;of course they are going to hate it.

How is a franchise the most successful if the annual revenue is a fraction of MCU.

 

4 billion in a single year.

 

That's the definition of success.

[Nova]

22 Jump Street is up next. Some irony in a Lord and Miller movie showing up while their would be film is flopping at the box office 

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s a lock barring BvS WOM. So sure, if that happens then it becomes possible to miss. But what are the odds of that, especially with an ant man film? 

How is that so?  

 

Im going to be generous and use a Ragnarok to Dark World comparison (which Ant-Man’s tracking and buzz looks nothing like Ragnarok.  It’s looking to be about on par with the first).

 

Ragnarok had a 43% increase in OW (with considerable buzz, it’s trailer views were second to IT I believe as one comp)

 

A Ragnarok type increase for Ant-Man’s OW gives AMAW an 81m OW.  At that point it’d need a 2.5x multi to hit 200m, which isn’t a lock by any means in the summer.

 

A Ragnarok kind of increase from the first is also no guarantee either.  He’s never been a major buzz character and he hasn’t really had much exposure outside the first movie.

 

Granted it could also go over 200m, but I wouldn’t place it anywhere close to a lock.

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, SteveJaros said:

I've been trying to tell you "Solo" was going to be a flop-turkey for months now. Few listened. Now the crows are pecking at the corpse.

Star Wars fatigue big time. Disney was pushing their luck with yearly releases as it was, but 5 months? Insane. 

Congrats Mr. Broken Clock, you were finally right this one time.

 

Yes, 5 months is too soon for franchise movies to be released alongside one another.

 

By the by, how far apart were Black Panther and Infinity War released from one another?  

[miketheavenger]

So, how low can Solo actually go with these early numbers? Is sub-400m WW actually a possibility?

[Biggestgeekever]

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/box-office-solo-a-star-wars-story-memorial-day-weekend-1202822710/

 

Quote

First-day grosses are coming in at about $32 million — including $14.1 million from previews, which set a Memorial Day weekend record.

[The Panda]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

No, I’m very careful with my statistics, and I completely agree that it is not literally 0. As you say, perhaps the world ends before AM&tW can even be released, or some other kind of national level black swan event.     

 

My point is more that the chance to go below 10M is something like 10^-9, so people in everyday conservation will round that to 0 and hopefully it is understood what is meant. Likewise, the chance of going below 200M is something like 10^-3, maybe. That’s the kind of number that can also be reasonably rounded to 0 is this context, as long as everyone remains aware that of course no real world future events are ever actually exactly equal to 0%.

Lol, I wouldn’t even put AMAWs chances of going under 200m close to 0%.  I’d think conservatively 35-40% or so chance of that.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Pandamia!