HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[a2k]

U guys be trippin

 

If DP2 3-day is -60%, MD 4-day will be 62-63, -50% and that takes it to 227+ dom.

 

Now POTC5 had a 78.5 MD 4-day (OW at that) and added 94.0 more. Those legs give DP2 227.5 + 62.5/78.5*94 = 302.3

 

So let that sink in : If DP2's multiplier off the 2nd weekend (MD 4-day) is same as POTC5's 1st weekend (MD 4-day), then it crosses 300.

 

But Legs off 2nd weekend are waaaaay better than the first weekend (previews and other front-loading).

 

DP2 will do 310-315 even with a 60% FSS drop.

[aabattery]

Oof. 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Pandamia! said:

I’m not even sure about AM&W over 200m, let alone 300m lol.  

 

And I was starting to doubt the trailer views trend that I had been more adamant for but I should have trusted the data.  Trailer views though I think demonstrate global interest more than DOM but still

[Fancyarcher]

28 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Disney learned the hard way that you can't rubber stamp any SW movie and expect a billion.

 

There needs to be hype in order them to be B.O. monsters.

They also need to learn how to keep their budgets in control, and not have any serious production problems, like Fiege and co usually manage to do with the MCU films. I'm still interested in Solo, and I think LF can right the ship, but even I acknowledge for a lower spinoff like Solo, a 250m dollar budget is quite frankly "too much", and a bit absurd.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[grey ghost]

LF has episode 9.

 

If that sucks they will probably fire Kathleen and rebrand in 5 to 7 years

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Pandamia! said:

I’m not even sure about AM&W over 200m, let alone 300m lol.  

 

And I was starting to doubt the trailer views trend that I had been more adamant for but I should have trusted the data.  Trailer views though I think demonstrate global interest more than DOM but still

There’s zero chance for an MCU movie to miss 200 DOM right now. Literally zero.

Edited May 25, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Blankments]

Y'know, even barring my bias against it, I still think this was a bad idea for releasing on Memorial Day. We've been trained to associate Star Wars with Christmas these past few years; honestly, entering my movie theater to buy tickets to Deadpool 2 in 90 degree weather and seeing a Star Wars movie as an option was weird as fuck

[Chewy]

4 minutes ago, TheManFromBeyond said:

Remember The Incredible Hulk and how it didn't even double its budget worldwide despite coming out only a month after Iron Man? That's why you haven't seen another Hulk standalone film

 

Well it's also because Universal has the distribution rights to any standalone Hulk movie. Hence, the Ragnarok loophole

[WrathOfHan]

I think Bohemian Rhapsody has a decent chance at outgrossing Solo  

[Ozymandias]

4 hours ago, AJG said:

Enough of this.

 

Fuck Star Wars.

Fuck their fans.

Fuck their haters.

 

I only acknowledge the one true trilogy

 

 

2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

hahaha i love this idea that Red Letter Media is the reason for the disney star wars movies. is this a common conception among fanboy crazies?

 

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, Blankments said:

Y'know, even barring my bias against it, I still think this was a bad idea for releasing on Memorial Day. We've been trained to associate Star Wars with Christmas these past few years; honestly, entering my movie theater to buy tickets to Deadpool 2 in 90 degree weather and seeing a Star Wars movie as an option was weird as fuck

 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

U guys be trippin

 

If DP2 3-day is -60%, MD 4-day will be 62-63, -50% and that takes it to 227+ dom.

 

Now POTC5 had a 78.5 MD 4-day (OW at that) and added 94.0 more. Those legs give DP2 227.5 + 62.5/78.5*94 = 302.3

 

So let that sink in : If DP2's multiplier off the 2nd weekend (MD 4-day) is same as POTC5's 1st weekend (MD 4-day), then it crosses 300.

 

But Legs off 2nd weekend are waaaaay better than the first weekend (previews and other front-loading).

 

DP2 will do 310-315 even with a 60% FSS drop.

I hope you're right 

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

The way they handled reshoot situation and how much they spent on the spin off did show imo that they were very well aware of the risk or at least the giant opportunity cost between good Star Wars movies and bad one, they fully knew how much was in stake I think.

 

What is suggested they should have done if they already knew what they supposedly just learn, they should have fired the writer/director again after seeing the trailer's this Solo movie gave them, re-cast announce a Christmas release ? Just not release the movie ?

 

It was a Han Solo/Chewee/Lando space adventure movie started by Lucas and legendary writer Kasdan with a perfect director match in Lord&Miller that had a near perfect track record.

 

I really do not think it is fair to assume that in 2015 they should have known it would not work, I certainly had no clue it was in fact (before the director change) my most anticipated and one I thought would do extremely well and perfect for the summer. There is just a lot of bad/good luck that goes in that process.

Han Solo was always a bad idea.

 

I like the trailers but it never got a "finally" reaction from barely anyone.

 

Even the announcement got a weak response.

 

The consensus seemed to prefer an Obi Wan flick.

[dudalb]

4 hours ago, AJG said:

 

Its been 41 years and nobody will admit that it’s just an ok movie?!?!?

 

Cmon people, there’s ten minutes of some guys trying to escape a trash compactor.

I think that Lucas's best film is still "American Graffiti".

But I am from the Central Valley so I am a bit biased.

[Mekanos]

Solo under GOTG 3 day is what’s blowing my mind right now.

[Thrylos 7]

Marvel and Star wars are  two very different things and people shouldn’t really draw that many parallels between them. Marvel, the comic book company not the MCU, can sustain as many as five films per year with variables degrees of success. Marvel is way too diverse , its heroes are just far too diverse so you can go from the poor neighborhoods of New York with spider man to a mega technologically advanced part of Africa with black panther to outer space with GOTG. Star Wars is a sci-fi franchise , there’s only so much you can do with it. Disney should stick to making the absolute  best possible big , mainline films , every two years or so and forget about spin offs. 

[The Panda]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

They’re definitely not a 1-1 correlation but look at Star Wars.  TFA, record breaking views and 2b WW, TLJ and RO both dropped off a lot in views and TLJ had a bit more than RO (both around 1B), Solo well

[grey ghost]

Oh no.

 

LOTR nerds.

 

Do we have any relevant challengers?

[a2k]

110 4-day will take some shenanigans imo with 35 od.

 

14.1

21.0 = 35.1 od

26.25 (+25%)

24.15 (-8%) = 85.5 ow

19.6 (-19%) = 105.1 4-day

[dudalb]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think Bohemian Rhapsody has a decent chance at outgrossing Solo  

Which gives "We Are The Champions" a whole new meaning...