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sfran43

Weekend Thread: | Estimates (per BOM) ~ M:I-F 35M, DCR 25.003M, TSWDM 12.35M, MM!HWGA 9.09M, TE2 8.83M, HT3:SV 8.2M, AMatW 6.188M, TDM 5.8M

By sfran43, in Numbers and Data

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Jake Gittes Global Phenomenon

Jake Gittes

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

Super bummed that Eighth Grade didn't have a better expansion. It's the best thing in theaters right now and I really thought it could be a word of mouth hit. 

 

Instead it's doing well, but "doing well for an indie." Is it even possible for Indies to break out outside of Oscar season anymore?

Does Won't You Be My Neighbor count as a breakout? 

 

Being outside of America I never got too deep into the entire MoviePass situation but I get the impression it's demonstrated that people are willing to go out and watch more movies in theaters, but something needs to be done about the cost esp. when it comes to smaller films. 

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Maxmoser3 Blockbuster

Maxmoser3

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Posted

Fallout has the best hold for the franchise! Although they count Ghost Protocol although that was a holiday release. $200 million will happen for Mission Impossible: Fallout with no problem. It’s also best to note that this will be the first film in 4 years since Transformers: Age Of Extinction that Paramount would have a $200 million grosser!

 

the rest of the new releases weren’t good though, Christopher Robin debuted with $25 million lower than Disney’s flop A Wrinkle In Time, but ahead of Pete’s Dragon. Hopefully for good legs, but $100 million won’t happen for this although people love it and the trailer looked kinda cute.

 

Spy Who Dumped Me’s underperformance amazes the shit out of me, it looked fun and looked like the decent hit for even a mid-range comedy. It looks fun and funny, i guess people don’t want to spend full price on R-rated comedies anymore. 

 

Holdovers were also strong, Mamma Mia should make $100 million by this Friday and Equalizer is performing on-par with its predecessor and should play fine for the rest of August. 

 

Darkest Minds bombed because it looked like too many different movies in one by the trailer. So $10 million will happen.

 

with the holdovers doing solid and the newbies dissapointing, the top 12 was actually up 15% from last year when new releases such as The Dark Tower led a mediocre $19.1 million and shot down with a uneventful $50 million domestic on a $60 million budget.

 

Kidnap had an ok start with $10 million and finished with $30 million on a $21 million budget, and last but not least out of the first weekend of August 2017’s Dead slate Detroit’s dreadful expansion with a terrible $7 million and finished with only $15 million. 

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babz06 Box Office Gold

babz06

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

Super bummed that Eighth Grade didn't have a better expansion. It's the best thing in theaters right now and I really thought it could be a word of mouth hit. 

 

Instead it's doing well, but "doing well for an indie." Is it even possible for Indies to break out outside of Oscar season anymore?

I understand what you’re saying but this will actually be a better year for Sundance releases. By the end of the summer we will have at least 6 releases with 10m+ total, including two that were breakouts ( Hereditary-44m, and Wont You be my Neighbor-20m and counting) Searching, Assassination Nation and Colette could also hit 10m or more as well. However it is true that these indie/specialty releases do better if they have an awards push. For example, I don’t see Lady Bird or Three Billboards both making over 40m+ without it. 

Edited by babz06
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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Looks like Sequelizer is gonna beat the first. I'd still love to see what numbers Denzel could take a popular IP to. 

The Threequalizer is going happen!!

 

I'm struggle to see what popular IP Denzel would be interested because he's unlikely to do a superhero movie and he's too famous and expensive for an existing franchise.

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filmscholar Blockbuster

filmscholar

Posted
Posted

Congrats to BP on 700, yeah these last several weeks have been a slow, slowww crawl but it got there none this less.  Congrats to "Jurassic 5" crossing 400 Domestic.  I think the drop from "Jurassic World" is just fine and hopefully the next film can retain much of this audience.  But the franchise is good space.   

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Webslinger Box Office Gold

Webslinger

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Mission: Impossible - Fallout held really well - that Saturday drop (just 31.4%) is especially impressive. The strong word-of-mouth is clearly propelling its staying power, and should continue to do so in the face of the meager slate of remaining releases this month. It should have no trouble finally unseating the second film as the highest domestic earner in the series, and a multiplier matching Rogue Nation's from this point onward would put it at about $231.6 million total.

 

Christopher Robin had a decent opening weekend, though I expected it to go a little higher. I think the concept of bringing the Winnie the Pooh characters into a live action setting with a grown Christopher Robin was ultimately a little too strange of a sell to break out in a huge way with children or adults. A multiplier in line with Pete's Dragon would put it in the high-80s, but I wouldn't rule out stronger legs with a slightly earlier release, strong word-of-mouth, and no significant competition for families for the rest of the month.

 

The Spy Who Dumped Me didn't make much noise, as expected in the face of a half-hearted ad campaign. I think Lionsgate hoped they could play off of the leads' name recognition and an August release akin to last year's hit action-comedy The Hitman's Bodyguard, but the pieces never fell into place.

 

Mamma Mia! stabilized nicely after last weekend's rough drop. If it continues to build late legs and post stellar weekday business, it should finish in the vicinity of $120-125 million.

 

Equalizer 2 also held up much better than it did last weekend. It should be able to at least squeak past $100 million domestically.

 

The Darkest Minds bombed hard. It's telling that Fox opted to barely market this one despite having just one other release all summer.

 

It's too bad that Eighth Grade isn't going to make a bigger splash theatrically, but it's destined to find plenty of new viewers when it hits home video/streaming/etc.

 

Death of a Nation had the lowest wide release opening for any of its maker's material. He'll keep making these things, but the audience has dried up unless he comes up with an especially incendiary topic.

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Noctis Global Phenomenon

Noctis

Posted
Posted

Ant-Man and the Wasp is at $230.8m OS with China, Japan, Portugal, and Italy left. How much more can we expect it to do overseas? 

 

Also...Mamma Mia 2's overseas gross looks really weak compared to the first when it only has a few more markets to open in...the first was almost the biggest OS grosser of its year. This one looks to finish with about how much?

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted (edited)

Megalodon seems to be adding in 3D and the premium formats outside of IMAX.  This should be good for Mi6's third weekend...

Looking at some of the reserved seats, The Meg will likely not out-open Independence Day: Resurgence.

Edited by dmatrixfilmdx
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