Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

That and never even underestimate Rexy & Blue’s appeal from fans of the entire JP-franchise.

 

Actually, 2018 is the second time in movie-history where both a ”Wizarding World”-film and a JP-film came out the same year.

 

First time that happened was with HP: SS & JP3 in 2001. Remember that year, eh?

 

 

I do. Pretty big year with many movies almost breaking the opening weekend record then HP finally doing it 

[John Marston]

Spider-man Homecoming is blandly directed, shot, and the villain is only good because he is played by Michael Keaton who manages to add some menace but the villain on paper is nothing special

[MovieMan89]

FB may not do much more than 600 ww. That’s really not good with the $200m budget, such a small DOM share, and WB’s known history of infamously absurd marketing costs for the Wizarding franchise. I don’t see how this  franchise survives to 5 films without either major budget cuts or a revelatory third film that is so amazing WOM goes crazy for it. 

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I think Vice does well for the kind of film it is (as in 80-90m DOM), but yeah, too expensive. I'm not sure what kind of presence the movie will have OS.

 

 

probably very little OS presence. Dick Cheney is hardly a figure OS would be interested in. So all money it has to make is dom.

[MrPink]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

probably very little OS presence. Dick Cheney is hardly a figure OS would be interested in. So all money it has to make is dom.

 

Yeah I don't expect much, but maybe enough to get it to 2x budget on the strength of quality and performances (reactions are very positive thus far).

 

The Big Short did quietly do 63m OS.

Edited November 18, 2018 by MrPink

[MrGlass2]

Vice can do fine OS. Bush and Cheney were widely reviled worldwide.

[Jonwo]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

FB may not do much more than 600 ww. That’s really not good with the $200m budget, such a small DOM share, and WB’s known history of infamously absurd marketing costs for the Wizarding franchise. I don’t see how this  franchise survives to 5 films without either major budget cuts or a revelatory third film that is so amazing WOM goes crazy for it. 

Warner Bros has three options regarding the third Fantastic Beasts film, first would be to cancel the series and just do a new Wizarding World film in 3-5 years time, this is unlikely and I don't think they want to damage their relationship with JK Rowling, the second option is that they carry on as normal, again not likely because if they keep things the same, FB3 would end losing money and the third options

is that Warner Bros goes ahead with a third film but makes creative changes and possibly delay the film from November 2020 to say Summer 2021 or November 2021, also consider ending FB as a trilogy and then doing a new Wizarding World film a few years down the line. 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Jonwo

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Yeah I don't expect much, but maybe enough to get it to 2x budget on the strength of quality and performances (reactions are very positive thus far).

 

The Big Short did quietly do 63m OS.

I always forget these movies don't do very well OS despite being quite big here thanks to the Oscar season + big cast.

[Curtis1986]

I don't expect Vice to do good domestically or internationally. Watching a movie about Dick Cheney is not welcome and Christmas present. Even with a Stellar cast it reminds me of the Oliver Stone film W

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

Warner Bros has three options regarding the third Fantastic Beasts film, first would be to cancel the series and just do a new Wizarding World film in 3-5 years time, this is unlikely and I don't think they want to damage their relationship with JK Rowling, the second option is that they carry on as normal, again not likely because if they keep things the same, FB3 would end losing money and the third options

is that Warner Bros goes ahead with a third film but makes creative changes and possibly delay the film from November 2020 to say Summer 2021 or November 2021, also consider ending FB as a trilogy and then doing a new Wizarding World film a few years down the line. 

The third option isn’t great either though because they will still likely damage their relationship with Rowling, who seems bent on this being a five part story. Rowling has always been stubborn when it comes to her vision, and I’m guessing she’s not going to want to budge on how she thinks the story should be told. So they’re kinda in a lose-lose situation now, unless they just find a way to make these films for much cheaper.

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't give a crap about Potter but it sounds like once again WB brought together a creative group that were more focused on big action set pieces and a complicated story than they were on characters. That was the downfall of the DCEU. Focus on making likable characters gosh darn it! Also, a story can be effective without some overly convoluted bullshit story.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[filmnerdjamie]

The final product will most-probably be a lazy hit-piece that plays to the fan-base. But motherfucker was Vice the single best trailer I've seen all year. That alone cements I will see it, and I think Bale will easily win another Oscar for this. But commercially? Yeah, bomb. 

Edited November 18, 2018 by filmnerdjamie

[MrPink]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I always forget these movies don't do very well OS despite being quite big here thanks to the Oscar season + big cast.

 

Big Short making 47% of its take OS is actually pretty good tbh

 

6 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

I don't expect Vice to do good domestically or internationally. Watching a movie about Dick Cheney is not welcome and Christmas present. Even with a Stellar cast it reminds me of the Oliver Stone film W

 

W had pretty mixed reviews. It was also probably a little too soon. If Vice's reviews are strong enough it should play well into January away from Christmas and leg out a decent take I think.

 

 

Annapurna will probably regret going too wide too fast though.

Edited November 18, 2018 by MrPink

[Napoleon]

Two months ago I posted a $63 million OW prediction for Fantastic Beasts 2 and people here laughed. The movie couldn't even reach my prediction. Where is your laugh reaction now, bitch??

[Zakiyyah6]

Which studio is marketing Vice though? Marketing matters.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Two months ago I posted a $63 million OW prediction for Fantastic Beasts 2 and people here laughed. The movie couldn't even reach my prediction. Where is your laugh reaction now, bitch??

[Blaze Heatnix]

Just get rid of the Fantastic Beasts name and focus on the third movie being called Dumbledore VS Grindewald.

 

Then, get done with it. With a possible 155/160 million domestic final number, there's no way WB can make 3 more movies. There's a chance the next one goes sub 100 million domestic.

 

Then, just wait 5/6 years and make a movie about the Cursed Child. That one could be big with the characters that everyone knows. 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Which studio is marketing Vice though? Marketing matters.

Annapurna which automatically means its gonna bomb. Don't know why people are even bothering to discuss its box office when its being distributed by them. 

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Annapurna which automatically means its gonna bomb. Don't know why people are even bothering to discuss its box office when its being distributed by them. 

Yep. It's 100% going to flop. People are insane if they think that Vice is doing 80-90mil domestic.

[MrPink]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Yep. It's 100% going to flop. People are insane if they think that Vice is doing 80-90mil domestic.