Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

[Zakiyyah6]

I could be wrong but I see the Princess marketing working out very well for Wreck-it-Ralph. I'm going higher than 50mil on it's weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

This movie is having an awesome drop OS! I could see it legging it's way past $500M!!

I knew I should've gone higher than 400 in the winter game

[Curtis1986]

Numbers on green book yet

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

FB2

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$62,200,000	24.6%
+ Foreign:	$191,000,000	75.4%
= Worldwide:	$253,200,000

 

FB2 WW Optimistically

62-63 DOM * 2.85 = 175-180 [FB1 did 3.15x]

153.5 OS-China * 2.7 = ~415 [FB1 did ~3x]

37.5 China * 1.6 = 60

Japan 60

 

180 + 415 + 60 + 60 = 715 WW

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Yikes at CYEFM dropping 40% despite a 100+ theater increase. It might not even reach $10M.

 

Relating, it's depressing how mediocre the awards contenders/indies have done this season. Seems like everything art house-wise has done mediocre results at best from September to now. The Favourite better do a $100K PTA or something next weekend.

[Valonqar]

New openers - FB2, IF and Widows - have absolutely abysmal PTA. I'm not sure they'll hold that well during the holiday week especially if new movies (well, some of them) are what people actually want to see. 

 

BR OS numbers are wonder to behold. truly stunning and well-deserved. Would be monster numbers for a SH/other blockbuster, let alone a musical biopic. Perhaps if Solo was set to Queen tunes like GOTG was to awesome mixed tapes, it would have been a hit? 

 

Never trust festival bubble hype. Those people are not normies. They are clueless about what GA wants to see. 

[Zakiyyah6]

Art house movies and adult dramas and thrillers have been dying theatrically for years. Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born are lucky. 

[John Marston]

Grindelwald won’t be like Jurassic World FK where it has good legs despite bad reviews. JW delivered on the Dino action. Grindelwald is just boring set up for future movies 

[Valonqar]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Art house movies and adult dramas and thrillers have been dying theatrically for years. Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born are lucky. 

BR and ASIB are rare adult fares that are huge without starring Leo. So far, he's the most reliable one to turn an adult tough sell into a huge global hit. We'll see how The Mule (Cooper who obviously has drawing power) and Vice (ditto Bale) will do. 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Valonqar

[Nova]

14 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Art house movies and adult dramas and thrillers have been dying theatrically for years. Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born are lucky. 

I don't know if that's true though. I mean sure not every single one is grossing hundreds of millions of dollars anymore but there are quite a few that are still very successful at the box office along with those that can pull in hundreds of millions. I think what's killed a lot of adult dramas now a days though is the festival circuit. You have films that premiere months before their release and then the hype for them simply dies down by the time they get out. Hell there are some films that premiere during the festival circuit and then are completely forgotten about. There were quite a few films that had this issue this year. In the past, I think this set up used to work because studios typically ignored September and October and for the most part November. It's nice to have your film premiere at a festival and stuff but unless you're planning to release it soon after, you're better off just waiting for it premiere closer to its release date. If the film is good enough, it'll get the awards buzz it should receive regardless but studios now a days I think are afraid that if their film doesnt do the festival circuit then it won't be in awards contention. 

 

BR and ASIB are different in the sense that the former is a biopic of one of the most iconic leading men/bands and the latter is a remake of a very popular film. 

 

Art House films have been dying but then again were they ever even alive? 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Nova

[Zakiyyah6]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

BR and ASIB are rare adult fares that are huge without starring Leo. So far, he's the most reliable one to turn an adult tough sell into a huge global hit. We'll see how The Mule (Cooper who obviously has drawing power) and Vice (ditto Bale) will do. 

I don't see Vice doing well enough to make back that huge for a comic-drama 60 mil budget. The Mule I could see doing well because WB will be marketing it.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Alli]

Nobody cares about Bale's fetish of  getting fat again. A this point he's a caricature...like Depp in clown/pirates makeup. Vice is gonna bomb

Edited November 18, 2018 by Alli

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Stuff like Lady Bird and Three Billboards last year managed to have killer PTAs and good holds last year, so don't give me any of that "art house and adult movies are a dying breed." Obviously I don't expect stuff like Boy Erased, CYEFM, Beautiful Boy, and the like to do gangbusters and make $100M or whatever, but they're delivering average PTAs and poor holds when just last year, we've had several indie breakout. That's a problem to me.

[Valonqar]

60M for that? Yikes! Bomb.

 

BKKK did well this year (15M budget/87M WW/48M dom) and it falls into adult arthouse, no?

Edited November 18, 2018 by Valonqar

[MrFanaticGuy34]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Grindelwald won’t be like Jurassic World FK where it has good legs despite bad reviews. JW delivered on the Dino action. Grindelwald is just boring set up for future movies 

That and never even underestimate Rexy & Blue’s appeal from fans of the entire JP-franchise.

 

Actually, 2018 is the second time in movie-history where both a ”Wizarding World”-film and a JP-film came out the same year.

 

First time that happened was with HP: SS & JP3 in 2001. Remember that year, eh?

[That One Girl]

If a piece of shit like Bohemian Rhapsody can make so much money, I think that's enough proof that adult dramas and thrillers aren't dying.

[John Marston]

Just now, That One Guy said:

If a piece of shit like Bohemian Rhapsody can make so much money, I think that's enough proof that adult dramas and thrillers aren't dying.

 

 

Bohemina Rhapsody was basically a concert movie which is what people wanted

[MrPink]

I think Vice does well for the kind of film it is (as in 80-90m DOM), but yeah, too expensive. I'm not sure what kind of presence the movie will have OS.

 

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by MrPink

[filmnerdjamie]

4 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Spider-Man Homecoming is okay, it's decent. It has no meat on its bones though. If Justice League didn't exist it would have been the most vapid and uncreative comic book film of it's respective year. 

That still would have gotten praised to the nth degree. Every Goddamn time we hear the same (over)praise for an MCU film, like how many years now have we heard "They FINALLY solved their villain problem?!"