Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

[dudalb]

52 minutes ago, Maggie said:

What about the quality of the movie? I think it will be good. The director is quite cherished

Quality does not guarantee box office.

We have all seen really good movies flop at the box office, and really crappy ones make a lot of money.

 

[Gokira2012]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Nah, they just picked my post (kidding:)...I did say over Jungle Cruise and under Black Widow, but to the low side and under $60M...I think that about wraps up that tracking:)...

Box Office PRo is very accurate, they have been doing this kind of work since 1930

[Valonqar]

Dallas Liu (not related to Simu Liu) has a really good agent. Plays young SC and is now cast as Prince Zuko in TLA. It's funny how Hollywood immediately starts to put newbies with good agents in everything sight unseen. Remember Naomi Scott? She was in every (projected) big thing at one point. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Valonqar

[Cooper Legion]

BOP starting conservative, makes sense after BW. I think the lack of PA here will lead to a more favorable final result vs their initial range — but fwiw the initial BW range of 65-90 means that SC would get a mid 40s OW if it had the same initial tracking:real OW ratio. That would be unfortunate but not cataclysmic.

[ThomasNicole]

The delay of Venom will help this movie.

 

It will have more than a month without any major competition before NTTD.

 

I keep wonder if even with an let's say $ 55M opening, this could't surpass BW final number considering it won't have PA or competition.

[keysersoze123]

This has to be delta effect(mentioned as 1st con as well). initial tracking is based on awareness/definite interest/first choice numbers. Delta would affect that for sure. I think ground level situation around release will be the biggest factor. if it gets worse then the interest in going to theaters will drop even further impacting everything. 

 

Chapek did mention given a choice they would have gone for hybrid but its too late in the game to change plans. So he was probably going by tracking data. 

 

FYI I was looking at number of shows so far come up and its quite small for a MCU movie. That could be driven by initial tracking as well. With bigger tracking plexes would have targeted much bigger release. Anyway there is still time and let us avoid doom talk for now. 

[john2000]

13 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

BOP starting conservative, makes sense after BW. I think the lack of PA here will lead to a more favorable final result vs their initial range — but fwiw the initial BW range of 65-90 means that SC would get a mid 40s OW if it had the same initial tracking:real OW ratio. That would be unfortunate but not cataclysmic.

Probably not though that range was before the previews if bw had a normal multi then its ow would be 90+ on the high end and better of bop range

 

 

 

[RRA]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Yeah don't believe they based that tracking on anything but BOF guestimates. It's going to be closer to 55M than 35M whether over 55M or slightly under. As others said before, Marvel has a basic fandom that shows up for every movie rain or shine. And that basic fandom is pretty big hence the lowest OW so far being Ant Man's 57M or so. 

Pro’s TSS tracking was IIRC 35-60m, so we have to take Pro’s guesstimates with some salt.

[RRA]

2 hours ago, Maggie said:

What about the quality of the movie? I think it will be good. The director is quite cherished

It could surprise but forced to put down money, I’ll guess boilerplate MCU level.

 

Decent.

[Maggie]

2 hours ago, john2000 said:

No  probably past the peak and on decline

You're too optimistic, i'm afraid. The experts said it will peak in October

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Maggie said:

You're too optimistic, i'm afraid. The experts said it will peak in October

In US? I'm pretty sure scientists are saying for quite some time the peak would be between late august - early september.

 

And seems like they're right considering some places is already starting to drop in cases.

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

In US? I'm pretty sure scientists are saying for quite some time the peak would be between late august - early september.

 

And seems like they're right considering some places is already starting to drop in cases.

Yeah. That's what i read a few days ago.  https://www.healthline.com/health-news/when-will-we-hit-the-peak-for-the-delta-variant-in-the-u-s

Edited August 13, 2021 by Maggie

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

In US? I'm pretty sure scientists are saying for quite some time the peak would be between late august - early september.

 

And seems like they're right considering some places is already starting to drop in cases.

 

But, it's when you get to the other side of the mountain, folks feel good again...that can take 2 full months after peak (if the winter is a go by)...

 

As an example, it's when you're back to 2% positivity after you spiraled up to 12%...no one's gonna feel safe that b/c we're just past the peak, instead of 12%, it's now 11% and dropping - they are gonna feel safe when it gets back to 2%,,,

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, RRA said:

Pro’s TSS tracking was IIRC 35-60m, so we have to take Pro’s guesstimates with some salt.

 

I think given the conditions on the ground, I think ANYTHING this far out is little better than a "guess" (more on that in a bit). 

 

There's a reason why we haven't seen eight week out tracking and only recently have moved to three to four week out tracking.  Given the paucity of data (only having movies from April on to comp under the current landscape), trying to model what the public mood is gonna be like in a couple of weeks, never mind four or five, seems like... Well inviting Monday Morning Quarterbacking.

 

As it is, I do think @Shawn has access to data that makes the long range forecasts better than the guesses that many folks on this thread are implying.

 

Just turns out that The Suicide Squad underperformed even conservative tracking.  It happens. Especially during a rapidly shifting environment.   

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah I mean… on the one hand, obvious TSS ended up quite far from their initial range. But it was also an outlier — generally they have been hitting fairly well under the conditions. But also, obviously any 3 week out forecast in this climate with no sales to go on will be a rough estimate at best.

[RRA]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Yeah I mean… on the one hand, obvious TSS ended up quite far from their initial range. But it was also an outlier — generally they have been hitting fairly well under the conditions. But also, obviously any 3 week out forecast in this climate with no sales to go on will be a rough estimate at best.

It’s almost like I cited a recent example for why I’ll take that projection from the same source with caution and treat it for what it is.

[keysersoze123]

There is definitely a method to @Shawn's madness. he is not just pulling number out of nothing. SS early tracking was based on tracking(Awareness/DI/FC) numbers. Sometimes that does not translate to ticket sales. We have seen that happening even in pre-covid times. Now its even more challenging. But I will not discount the tracking. I would say chances of Shang Chi setting new OW for the year is unlikely. But it could still pull another SS kind of performance as situation would be even more dire than during SS release date. That said MCU brand and no PA should help bigtime. So I expect it to not pull a SS. 

 

I remember seeing early tracking for JW for 130m or so and thought BOP had gone mad. But they predicted a breakout 8 weeks or so before release. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

35-60 was a fair, conservative projection. I feel like them ending up wrong is irrelevant and really shouldn’t persuade anyone to discount them in the future. Their Shang-Chi guess, before tracking, seems about on the money 

[Gokira2012]

Shang-Chi will do 35 Million, deadline will say it's the biggest opening for a marvel movie during the pandemic without a Dis + release or whatever Disney tells them to say 

[Porthos]

Followed a Twitter lead and did some detective work on Google:

 

From TCL Chinese Theater Webpage:

 

Quote

• Shop

•  
•  

PLAY TRAILER

 

Marvel Studios’ “Shang-Chi and The Legend of The Ten Rings” stars Simu Liu as Shang-Chi, who must confront the past he thought he left behind when he is drawn into the web of the mysterious Ten Rings organization. The film also stars Tony Leung as Wenwu, Awkwafina as Shang-Chi’s friend Katy and Michelle Yeoh as Jiang Nan, as well as Fala Chen, Meng’er Zhang, Florian Munteanu and Ronny Chieng.

Cast: Awkwafina ., Fala Chen, Florian Munteanu, Meng’er Zhang, Michelle Yeoh, Ronny Chieng, Simu Liu, Tony Chiu-Wai Leung

Directors: Destin Daniel Cretton

Run Time: 132 Minutes

Genre: Action/Adventure

Opening Date: Friday, 03 September 2021

Official Site

 

 2D

 

 3D

 

 MX4D

 

(MX4D) SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS SHOW TIMES

TCL Chinese Theatre

Show Future Dates

Tickets available from Monday, 16 August 2021 06:00 AM (local)

Thursday, 02 September 2021

  

06:30 PM 09:45 PM

 

"Tickets available from Monday, 16 August 2021 06:00 AM (local)"

 

That's Pacific time for those not familiar.  

 

That backs up what @EmpireCity said (and he should know), though @charlie Jatinder thought it was Sun Night, which puzzled me a bit.  Maybe different drops in different parts of the world?

 

(as a side comment why studios insist on making this a guessing game I have no idea.  Well, actually I do (builds anticipation), but it's annoying all the same) 

 

===

 

Now it is theoretically possible that TCL has a late start for some reason.  But it does appear likely that the ticket drop is indeed 6am PDT on Monday (though I haven't been able to independently verify that twitter post)