Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

[TigerPaw]

I think with 1.5 months to itself, and no PA and piracy; it will do fairly well and numbers / legs will surprise.

 

Unless the movie is a dud, and WoM is bad or COVID situation does not improve at all in these 1.5 months when it is opened... 

 

Don't forget with Venom's shift (Venom's overseas date was 1 week earlier than Venom's domestic date), it also has a good runway overseas.

 

It has more chance of success than failure at this point. Yeah, COVID has its impact but may be positive impact for SC after all is said and done, as all wide releases have now ran away from Sept..

Edited August 13, 2021 by TigerPaw

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Though I am basing this on my personal experience in India, where younger people are more aware of CoVID and vaccine than the older ones.

In the western world, older people are way more vaccinated than younger one.

 

Specially in the USA if goes to over 85% for the older population to around 50% for the 25-39 or 18-24.

 

Seem similar in India:

 

Maybe there is a appearance of it, because of how much those who are aware talk versus silent elderly, but in fact in India it seem to older population is much more getting vaccinated. In India, maybe there is an actual lack of vaccine for the younger group explain it, but I doubt the population more at risk and know people that had big issue with it (the elderly) is less aware, they maybe have less platform or care about talking about it has much than the energic younger people that do.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Barnack

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

In the western world, older people are way more vaccinated than younger one.

 

Specially in the USA if goes to over 85% for the older population to around 50% for the 25-39 or 18-24.

 

Seem similar in India:

 

Maybe there is a appearance of it, because of how much those who are aware talk versus silent elderly, but in fact in India it seem to older population is much more getting vaccinated. In India, maybe there is an actual lack of vaccine for the younger group explain it, but I doubt the population more at risk and know people that had big issue with it (the elderly) is less aware, they maybe have less platform or care about talking about it has much than the energic younger people that do.

I wasn't focusing on the % vaccinated. That is lower in younger because older ones had head start and were vaccinated on preference. I was talking about general awareness about CoVID and risk.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Why is 4 days holiday weekend and then open month without competition considered bad. I know CoVID but 60% folks are vaccinated and those who aren't basically don't care about virus. As long as cinemas remain open with 75%+ seating, thankfully there's theatrical exclusivity, I think it will be fine in USA.

It feels like there is a decent amount of risk aversion still, may be anecdotal as my circles are probably more risk-averse wrt Covid. That said given the walkups we've seen the last couple of weeks, it probably will be fine. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

About the whole vaccination status stuff, I want to add something that might seem out of left field, pun intended:

 

 

It's not like San Francisco historically has bad attendance, in fact was fantastic until their prolonged bout of suckitude. 

 

But they are struggling this year even though the team is supremely entertaining this year.  

 

Now there are a ton of external factors in the Bay Area that aren't entirely 'rona related that I won't go into here.  But I do think it's telling that one of the more stereotypically liberal/progressive areas of the country is having... issues during this Delta wave.

 

It is also true that this isn't replicated everywhere (for instance San Diego had 32k show up on the night before).  But I think we'd be whistling past the graveyard to think it isn't a factor for some folks when it comes to their entertainment choices.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Porthos

[eddyxx]

On 8/11/2021 at 11:40 PM, ThomasNicole said:

I'm putting all my hopes in this movie.

 

$70M for the 4-day not only would be a record and great for the movie itself but would give us relief and finish this endless fear of delays etc.

 

If this one succeeds despite the Delta peak, i think everyone will agreed the rest of the year are safe.

 

I'm kinda confident, it's a lower one but still a MCU movie afterall.

That’s a pretty big number. I’d be happy if it opened to just 50m. I think that’s still a MCU low but would be a good # for Labor Day and one of the biggest weekends since the pandemic started.

[john2000]

 

 

another tv spot with great views...

[SpiderByte]

How is it so many people have pivoted (both on and off this board) from "Black Widow was hurt by Premier Access" to "Shang-Chi will be hurt by not having Premier Access"

Edited August 13, 2021 by SpiderByte

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 

 

another tv spot with great views...

I'm surprised with the likes.

 

Sometimes studios put ads on TV spots then it got good views but real low likes / comments. But with this movie everything is good on social media.

 

I'm not seeing anything but the marketing campaign for this movie seems solid and making impact, despite some people saying no one cares.

[Valonqar]

Look, downvote this comment all you want, but Awkwafina is so annoying af in this ad. I dread the embargo lifting and all the "steals every scene" BS. She always feels like she has to (over) act about 5 notches over the actor who shares the scene with her. She did that in CRA too. Constance Wu is acting but Awkwafina is ACTING!!!!!! in response. 

 

Other than that, good stuff. There's arena fight which people love (Raimi's Spiderman, Thor Ragnarok, Gladiator). There are mythical animals (phoenixes, something like a giant fur toy lion?). There's Dr Strange magic. And kung fu (not a fan of the cliche slide under the sword but not a deal breaker either). Should be a fun movie that benefits from empty month. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Valonqar

[Fox20]

Awkwafina has done nothing annoying in any of the trailers of Shang Chi... In CRA her character was supossed to be over the top, it does not even make sense to complain when the character was supossed to be like that.

[Valonqar]

Well, her acting style annoys me so we won't agree. However, since she's only as supporting player in both movies, aka limited screentime, it's no deal breaker. 

[SpiderByte]

Finally, tracking: 35-55 OW.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-shang-chi-and-the-legend-of-the-ten-rings/

[Maggie]

8 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Finally, tracking: 35-55 OW.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-shang-chi-and-the-legend-of-the-ten-rings/

I think those are guesses...i don't think they have any data. I could be wrong tho...

Edited August 13, 2021 by Maggie

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Finally, tracking: 35-55 OW.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-shang-chi-and-the-legend-of-the-ten-rings/

 

Nah, they just picked my post (kidding:)...I did say over Jungle Cruise and under Black Widow, but to the low side and under $60M...I think that about wraps up that tracking:)...

[Madhuvan]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Nah, they just picked my post (kidding:)...I did say over Jungle Cruise and under Black Widow, but to the low side and under $60M...I think that about wraps up that tracking:)...

I guess at this point 100m domestic would be good enough. During release of Shang-Chi is when Delta will be at peak

[Maggie]

What about the quality of the movie? I think it will be good. The director is quite cherished

[john2000]

13 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I guess at this point 100m domestic would be good enough. During release of Shang-Chi is when Delta will be at peak

No  probably past the peak and on decline

[Valonqar]

Yeah don't believe they based that tracking on anything but BOF guestimates. It's going to be closer to 55M than 35M whether over 55M or slightly under. As others said before, Marvel has a basic fandom that shows up for every movie rain or shine. And that basic fandom is pretty big hence the lowest OW so far being Ant Man's 57M or so. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Any numbers tossed around now for this movie are just educated guesses based on how the marketplace is doing.

 

The Monday presale launch is indeed happening since Disney has decided to use this movie as a test. We can start analyzing then.