Weekend Thread: weekend #s (Actuals) Dumbo $45.99M, Us $33.23M, CM $20.66M

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, baumer said:

The media really seems to be in love with Peele.  I get why but it does lead to some distortion of the facts.  Deadline reported that "most horror films fall 60-65% in their second weekend" when telling us how amazing US' drop of 53% is.  53% is a terrific drop especially for a film with the rush factor that US had.  But let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet when it comes to horror dropping so massively in its second weekend making US' drop something extraordinary.

 

Second weekend drops of recent horror films:

 

IT: (Rated R):  51%

Halloween (R):  58%

The Conjuring (R):  48%

The Nun (R):  -66%

The Conjuring 2:  -63%

Annabelle Creation:  (R):  -55%

Don't Breathe (R):  -40%

Hereditary (R):  -49%

 

So I'm not sure where she's getting most films drop north of 60%.  These are all rated R films.  So the reporting is definitely glossing over the film and trying pump the tires a little too much.  It is a good drop, no doubt.  But to say most horror films drop north of 60% in their second weekend is completely erroneous.

 

As for Captain Marvel, it is definitely not doing better than Wonder Woman at any point of its run after the first weekend.  I don't know what poster said it was but Boxofficemojo is your friend.  WW had a historic run after its OW weekend. Second weekend drop was 43%, then 29, then 39 and then 36%.  Marvel is behaving more like a typical solo Marvel movie.  I personally don't think it will get past WW.  That would require legs of about 2.75.  I don't see that happening.  I think it will get to 400 but not 420.

 

Dumbo's opening is fine I guess.  The price tag is really high but then again it seems like every animated film these days carry monstrous price tags.  I have no idea what the legs will be like but with A- audience score they should be fine. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great analysis as always, baumer (damn, I start the morning and have already used up my regenerated likes in this thread - you needed to post sooner:)...

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Remember earlier in the thread when there were folks saying Dumbo would probably hit mid 40s with that previews number and they were called “haters” and being “negative” 

 

16 minutes ago, baumer said:

I didn't read @Nova post being anything to do with fandom wars.  He just said that he felt the opening weekend number being predicted was too high and that 45 is right where he had it.  Nothing flamish about that.

side note = ppl acted agressive to ppl

(edit to add: he wishes it wouldn't happen, and I think also hopes it wont happen here too)

Edited March 30, 2019 by terrestrial

[Matthew]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Dumbo is not a flop yet. if it has horrid holds and fails to break even than we can talk flop. but now it;s too early. Also, Poppins ins't a flop either. 130M x 2.5 = 325M needed to break even. it made 348.8M. Flop doesn't even break even. MPR was a disappointment but not a flop. 

The marketing of Mary Poppins was like of a blockbuster and not like CR. It definitely did lose money and didn't win any oscar either. 

 

Dumbo budget is 170M 😁😁😁

[filmlover]

Low-key winner of the weekend is Hotel Mumbai. $3.4M is a lot more than I thought it would do, especially since it's been sitting on the shelf for almost three years. Armie Hammer is officially a specialty box office superstar, yo.

 

[filmlover]

Also: Five Feet Apart is legging it out to nearly $50M after tracking before it opened had it placed for a single digits launch. Nice little sleeper run there.

[jedijake]

So Dumbo looking at less than $50 million. It will likely fail to reach $150 million domestic. I'd say that is close to bomb territory. Wow! Time to REALLY start to lower expectations for movies this year!

[john2000]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

So Dumbo looking at less than $50 million. It will likely fail to reach $150 million domestic. I'd say that is close to bomb territory. Wow! Time to REALLY start to lower expectations for movies this year!

why ? captain marvel performed very well and that will continue nobady expect it dumbo to be a mega hit it came right in line with what many people thought and also us overperfomed too

[Matthew]

Avengers Endgame : Bomb

 

Detective Pikachu : ATBB

 

Alaadin : BOMB

 

GODZILLA :BB

 

Dark Phoenix :ATBB

 

Toy Story 4: Bomb

 

Lion King : Bomb

 

Frozen 2: Bomb

 

Star Wars episode 9 :ATBB

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

I'd say that is close to bomb territory.

Let's wait till we know where it ends ... worldwide, nor?

(Btw, not interested into any animated movies nor live-something-former-animated versions at all)

[Scubasteve716]

If Us can hold better than 55% that would be great for it.

 

none of the Disney remakes have even been good let alone great. I haven’t seen Dumbo but I’m not mad at it flopping. Think it’s going to fall off a cliff too. If it doesn’t get to 42 this weekend Disney is going to have to Wrinkle in Time it to $100 mil

[Matthew]

Just now, Matthew said:

Avengers Endgame : Bomb

 

Detective Pikachu : ATBB

 

Alaadin : BOMB

 

GODZILLA :BB

 

Dark Phoenix :ATBB

 

Toy Story 4: Bomb

 

Lion King : Bomb

 

Frozen 2: Bomb

 

Star Wars episode 9 :ATBB

 

Terminator : ATBB

 

Hobbs and Shaw : Bomb

 

Artemis Fowl :ATBB 

 

Dora : Highest Grossing Movie of all time 

 

Sonic : BB

 

Spiderman Far from Home : All time Bomb

[john2000]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

Let's wait till we know where it ends ... worldwide, nor?

(Btw, not interested into any animated movies nor live-something-former-animated versions at all)

[baumer]

30 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Dumbo is flop Ant man was not flop. 

 

Floppins and Bumbo 2 flops in a row. 😉😉😉😉

 

Dumbo will not be a flop.  Disappointment?  Maybe.  But flop is a strong word and it certainly does not apply in this situation.  

[RichWS]

Quote

“Who was the audience? How well is the property known? Where was the fun? Why did the trailer not have fun moments? How did they spend ~$300mm+ in aggregate on a non multiquadrant picture?” cried one film finance executive to us about Dumbo.

 

That's fair, dawg.

[Nova]

We have no idea what Dumbo's legs are going to be nor do we know how it is doing OS. Too soon to call it a bomb or a flop. 

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Dumbo will not be a flop.  Disappointment?  Maybe.  But flop is a strong word and it certainly does not apply in this situation.  

170m was just a production budget right? Assuming and add in a possible and standard 80m marketing expenses. The total budget will fly to 250m.

 

That means it needs at least 500m-550m to break even! To me, as long as a movie can't reach break even range, it is a flop. Dumbo seems like having some problem of reaching that.

 

 

 

[Matthew]

4 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

That's fair, dawg.

Hopefully Dumbo will teach Disney a lesson. They are as vulnerable as other studio. And focusing on low budget is sometime good. 

 

Disney seriously needs a financial advisor. 

 

 

TOMORROWLAND

 

JOHN CARTER

 

ALICE LOOKING THROUGH GLASS

 

WRINKLE IN TIME 

 

SOLO

 

LONE RANGER

 

JUPITER ASCENDING

 

MARY FLOPPINS 

 

AND MANY MORE...... TO COME 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

170m was just a production budget right? Assuming and add in a possible and standard 80m marketing expenses. The total budget will fly to 250m.

 

That means it needs at least 500m-550m to break even! To me, as long as a movie can't reach break even range, it is a flop. Dumbo seems like having some problem of reaching that.

 

 

 

We all know marketing is expensive.  But that's why we really don't talk about marketing in terms of break even point because it's such a variable.  If we are using marketing, then you have to use post theatrical numbers as well.  How much will it make on HV, BR, how much will the TV rights go for?  What about streaming services?  What about itunes, airplane showings, foreign video sales, foreign ancillary sales, how many kids are going to buy Dumbo paraphenilia and so on?  So let's just stick to the 170 million dollar budget and go from there.  

[el sid]

Deadline seems to be very strict with almost all films of the Top 10 this morning. The last time I looked at the Deadline numbers it was said: Disney’s Dumbo is flying in lower than the $50 million-plus tracking expected with an estimated $46M-$49M weekend off a $15M first day. Now Dumbo is only 200k under their first Friday projection (and RTH is probably closer with 14.9M) and suddenly Dumbo will only fly to 44M OW.
Us had 9M and 32M OW, now its Friday number jumped to 10.4M and the OW projection is still only 33.6M...
Their projections might be right of course but especially Dumbo could just as well reach 50M with a nice Saturday jump. This 15M Friday is including the Thursday previews, yes, but it's still a family film for the real weekend, at least I hope so .

[Matthew]

At this point.. I wouldn't be surprised if

 

Lion King, Aladdin and Maleficent 2 flops or underperform. Artemis Fowl is already a flop.