Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)

[a2k]

3b is not dead for aeg.

something like 625 ch + 900 dom + 1475 os-ch = 3000

...with some give and take between those 3 market subsets.

 

2800 is more or less certain and 2900 is more likely than not.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, a2k said:

3b is not dead for aeg.

something like 625 ch + 900 dom + 1475 os-ch = 3000

...with some give and take between those 3 market subsets.

 

2800 is more or less certain and 2900 is more likely than not.

Thing is where is that 1475 gonna come. The OW was just +40% over IW. 1475 will be 48% above IW final.

[wildphantom]

Just got back from Long Shot. Man, it’s a goddamn travesty this hasn’t broken out this weekend. It’s really, really good. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

3b is not dead for aeg.

something like 625 ch + 900 dom + 1475 os-ch = 3000

...with some give and take between those 3 market subsets.

 

2800 is more or less certain and 2900 is more likely than not.

1475 seems too high , but like you say DOM +China miiiiiiiight be able to make it up it OS-C can leg to anything over 1.4

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Thing is where is that 1475 gonna come. The OW was just +40% over IW. 1475 will be 48% above IW final.

 

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

1475 seems too high , but like you say DOM +China miiiiiiiight be able to make it up it OS-C can leg to anything over 1.4

yeah i didn't follow the os-china numbers closely cause it all became a colossol blur. last i checked 1.4b was a possiblity and assumed a few surprising holds will take it past 1.45b but probably not.

 

china and dom will need 1550-1575 (say 650 + 900-925) for aeg to keep 3000 real.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

31 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Oh yeah, easily.

Think EP9 might fall to a point that it grosses close to CM? I think it's a possibility.

I doubt SW9 does even $1b WW, this franchise is dead and buried across the whole Asia/LA. And even in traditional markets, the saturation is already visible, TLJ already dropped over 50% in LC pretty much everywhere, but it had lucky to have a better ER to make up these decreases.

J2 OS > SW9 OS.

[Thrylos 7]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

Alita was so close to 4B WW, it only missed by 3,6 Billies ...

But at least it led to the creation of the best thread ever in this forum. Such a fascinating read that alita thread was, thanks to the people that kept it on the front page long enough so I could see it and read it. Picture-perfect representation of the forum.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

22 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's so little.

 

 

I am sorry.

How long did it take for you to come up with that one?😂

[Poseidon]

9 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Just got back from Long Shot. Man, it’s a goddamn travesty this hasn’t broken out this weekend. It’s really, really good. 

I guess the current cinema is a mirror of  the needs of societey in the current political environment. People search for heroes in times when they feel like somethings going on.

Not a good time for comedies. 
I hope the moment that people realize, that laughing is the best medicine comes rather sooner than later. 

[titanic2187]

One thing that people seem to ignore, one of the factor that contributing to Avatar's legs was Oscar season, having won GG for best drama and nominated for Best Pic in OSCAR really helped to sustain its hype in the later run. 

 

Oscar is relevant commercially, evidently through Green book, La la land, and Bohemian Rhapsody.   

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

How long did it take for you to come up with that one?😂

1 sec.

[The Futurist]

1 minute ago, Poseidon said:

I guess the current cinema is a mirror of  the needs of societey in the current political environment. People search for heroes in times when they feel like somethings going on.

Not a good time for comedies. 
I hope the moment that people realize, that laughing is the best medicine comes rather sooner than later. 

Well someone said here that MCU movies were eating the comedy market a lot and I feel it s true.

You have everything in those, charismatic actors, great spectacle and stories with humor all in one film.

[reddevil19]

Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

How long did it take for you to come up with that one?😂

Very little time, most likely...

[sfran43]

 

[cdsacken]

Ugly flop indeed

[IceFire9yt]

So, assuming a 150M second weekend, Endgame would have a 1.75x multi by Sunday.

 

Infinity War at that point had a 1.76x multi.

Age of Ultron had a 1.64x multi.  (EG would have a slightly better 2nd weekend drop, and benefited a lot more from spillover than AoU did).

 

AoU made an additional .76x after its 2nd weekend (for a 2.4x total).  If Endgame does for the rest of its run, it would get a 2.51x multi- 896M.  (in that situation I feel Disney would feel compelled to fudge and get it past 900M lol).  Regardless, it does look like Endgame will hold slightly better than AoU this weekend, so it could do better than that.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

This is a pretty ugly figure for a 3652 wide release 

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

This is not the mega franchise STX hoped it would be. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

We're all up waiting for that Hellboy weekend estimate 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said:

So, assuming a 150M second weekend, Endgame would have a 1.75x multi by Sunday.

 

Infinity War at that point had a 1.76x multi.

Age of Ultron had a 1.64x multi.  (EG would have a slightly better 2nd weekend drop, and benefited a lot more from spillover than AoU did).

 

AoU made an additional .76x after its 2nd weekend (for a 2.4x total).  If Endgame does for the rest of its run, it would get a 2.51x multi- 896M.  (in that situation I feel Disney would feel compelled to fudge and get it past 900M lol).  Regardless, it does look like Endgame will hold slightly better than AoU this weekend, so it could do better than that.

i would say that it will play closer to iw than aou for the rest of its run