Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[KP1025]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Mary Poppins making 102 million makes sense...right right?

Dumbo making 111 mill makes sense, right right?

I assume this is a typo? Mary Poppins Returns grossed $172 million domestically. 

[harsh3090416]

29's great for Aladdin.  Looks like it could beat the solo weekend from last year.  Solo had a 30% drop Friday to Saturday.  If aladdin doesn't drop more than 5% tomorrow that could be awesome. Could get it closer to 110 million weekend. 

[B-Rabbit]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Mary Poppins making 102 million makes sense...right right?

Dumbo making 111 mill makes sense, right right?

 

There are a litany of films that get over predicted at this site.  Not sure what exactly it is that TLK did in the past to make people think it's going to blow up this time. 

The Lion King is much much more iconic than Dumbo, Mary Poppins was a sequel to the original and didn't have Julie Andrews in it. Favreau is also directing TLK and the trailer views are way higher than Dumbo and/or Mary Poppins. Visuals in TLK look incredible too

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

 

I can buy Frozen making 1.5 billion before TLK makes a billion.  

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

I assume this is a typo? Mary Poppins Returns grossed $172 million domestically. 

 

Yep...sorry...

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Not sure what exactly it is that TLK did in the past to make people think it's going to blow up this time.   And why do you think it will make more than TJB

 

You're not actually serious, are you? lolol

It was the biggest Disney movie for nearly a decade and is always the most highly rated in polls. I'm a bit shocked for someone who's been tracking box office to be this out of touch. 

MPR & Dumbo don't have a current audience. They're 50-80 years old. The people who grew up with them and care about them are not the moving going public anymore. Just like Christopher Robin. TLK (2019) is coming out at the perfect time to catch everyone who was a child when the original released as an adult now with kids of their own. 

I'll buy 10 people on this site a month of premium if it does less than TJB worldwide. 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, B-Rabbit said:

The Lion King is much much more iconic than Dumbo, Mary Poppins was a sequel to the original and didn't have Julie Andrews in it. Favreau is also directing TLK and the trailer views are way higher than Dumbo and/or Mary Poppins. Visuals in TLK look incredible too

TLK trailer views are on avengers level, which is absurd for a family movie

 

The first have 224M and the second have 174M, i really don’t think this is coming for $ 2B, but expect less than $ 1.3B is delusional

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

Not sure what exactly it is that TLK did in the past to make people think it's going to blow up this time. 

That franchise did pretty much Everything ?

 

Biggest home video movie for a while if still not number 1 (doubled anything else on vhs apparently), biggest live show ever with well over 5 billionin sales ?, biggest 3D rerelease, etc...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2013/oct/17/the-lion-king-record-broadway-musical-simba

 

The Lion King is also threatening Phantom's record worldwide gross of $5.6bn. Julie Taymor's production, which has played in 21 different countries around the world, has now devoured of £5bn in total.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=3drereleases.htm

http://www.jpbox-office.com/topvhs.php

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/1998-02-15/the-entertainment-glut

This is how it's supposed to work: The Walt Disney Co. made The Lion King for $55 million in 1994. The animated movie took in $313 million in U.S. theaters and $454 million abroad, sold $520 million worth of videos, and was a main attraction on cable's Disney Channel. Fans spent $3 billion on Lion King merchandise. The Disney-produced soundtrack sold 11 million copies, and Disney used the film again in September, 1996, to boost the ratings of its struggling ABC network.

 

Arguably perfect 4 quadrant has it come + total family affair, Lion king certainly has a lot going for it.

 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

biggest live show ever with well over 5 billionin sales ?

 

It's over $9 billion now. It was at $8 billion in December 2017. Also, it's the biggest musical in several different countries (US, Japan, Germany, UK, etc etc)

[PDC1987]

24 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Mary Poppins making 102 million makes sense...right right?

Dumbo making 111 mill makes sense, right right?

 

There are a litany of films that get over predicted at this site.  Not sure what exactly it is that TLK did in the past to make people think it's going to blow up this time.   And why do you think it will make more than TJB?

Are you taking the piss with this? Over $750 million on mid 1990s ticket prices, the highest selling home video release of all time with 29 million VHS copies alone sold in the US alone, the live production adaptation is the highest grossing show in global theatrical history, the 3-D rerelease was easily the highest grossing of all of them around that time and the film spawned one of the biggest soundtrack albums of all time.

Edited May 26, 2019 by PDC1987

[dxmatrixdt]

quick - rock, paper, scissors!!!

[Webslinger]

For whatever anecdotal evidence is worth: I showed The Lion King to a 12th grade class in connection with reading Hamlet, and almost every single one of them had already seen it. Before we even started the movie, there was tons of chatter about the trailer for the remake.

 

I totally get the sky-high expectations. The original is a classic with enormous nostalgia appeal for multiple generations. Its 3D re-release even made $94 million - a figure that even the IMAX-driven re-releases for Titanic and Jurassic Park didn't come close to hitting. The enormous goodwill for the original provides a built-in audience on its own, and every stage of this film's development and promotion thus far feels like it has sparked palpable curiosity. I'd be shocked if it finished under $1 billion worldwide.

 

And while we're talking about anecdotal evidence surrounding Disney live action remakes, my audience for Aladdin - which was all 21+ thanks to the pub cinema venue - seemed to enjoy it for the most part. I don't know how that will bode in such a crowded marketplace if it proves true across the board, but we'll see. (I personally wasn't a fan, but oh well.)

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That franchise did pretty much Everything ?

 

Biggest home video movie for a while if still not number 1 (doubled anything else on vhs apparently), biggest live show ever with well over 5 billionin sales ?, biggest 3D rerelease, etc...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2013/oct/17/the-lion-king-record-broadway-musical-simba

 

The Lion King is also threatening Phantom's record worldwide gross of $5.6bn. Julie Taymor's production, which has played in 21 different countries around the world, has now devoured of £5bn in total.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=3drereleases.htm

http://www.jpbox-office.com/topvhs.php

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/1998-02-15/the-entertainment-glut

This is how it's supposed to work: The Walt Disney Co. made The Lion King for $55 million in 1994. The animated movie took in $313 million in U.S. theaters and $454 million abroad, sold $520 million worth of videos, and was a main attraction on cable's Disney Channel. Fans spent $3 billion on Lion King merchandise. The Disney-produced soundtrack sold 11 million copies, and Disney used the film again in September, 1996, to boost the ratings of its struggling ABC network.

 

Arguably perfect 4 quadrant has it come + total family affair, Lion king certainly has a lot going for it.

 

 

 

Bingo!

 

WW just theater revenue Lion King hit $8.1b WW as of Dec 2017

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leeseymour/2017/12/18/the-lion-king-is-making-more-money-for-disney-than-star-wars/#5c52470f1ff0

 

U.S. Theater run is over $1.6b with $8.2b including merchandise.

 

https://www.broadwayworld.com/grossesshow.cfm?show=THE-LION-KING&year=2019&allall=on

Highest-grossing musical theatre productions

The following is a list of the top 50 highest grossing musical theatre productions. (Includes merchandise sales.)

The Lion King sits top with a gross of $8.2 billion. whiles Starlight Express has the best average grossing $1.6 million per show.

Dates refer to original Broadway productions, with notes added for future productions that outran the Broadway run

  Background shading indicates shows running in the week commencing 24 May 2019 in Broadway theaters.

Rank	Production	Debut year	Closing year	Total gross revenue (US$)	Number of shows	Average per show	Ref
1	The Lion King	1997	present	$8,200,000,000	TBD	TBD	[a]
2	The Phantom of the Opera	1988	present	$6,060,000,000	TBD	TBD
3	Wicked	2003	present	$3,530,000,000	TBD	TBD	[c]
4	Cats	1982	2000	$2,865,624,091	7,485	$382,849	[d]
5	Les Misérables	1987	20031	$2,708,535,588	6,680	$405,469	[e]
5	Mamma Mia!	2001	20152	$2,086,773,150	5,758	$362,412	[f]
6	Miss Saigon	1991	2001	$1,636,259,976	4,092	$399,868	[g]
7	Jersey Boys	2005	2017	$1,644,848,098	4,642	$354,340	[h]
8	Beauty and the Beast	1994	2007	$1,600,000,000	5,461	$292,986	[4]
9	Starlight Express	1987	19893	$ 1,200,000,000	761	$1,576,873
10	Chicago	1975	19774	$640,000,000	936	$683,761	[11]
11	The Book of Mormon	2011	present	$600,000,000	TBD	TBD
12	Hamilton	2015	present	$470,000,000	TBD	TBD
13	Aladdin	2011	present	$380,000,000	TBD	TBD

[charlie Jatinder]

I know its not an exact science, but

 

BaTB 3D 47 to BaTB 504 ~ 10.7x

Jurassic Park 3D 45 to JW ~ 14.5x

 

For The Lion King you got 94.

 

I don't know how it fail to do 600 unless it's terrible.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I don't know how it fail to do 600 unless it's terrible.

Incredible 2 was my should do 600 reference.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I don't know how it fail to do 600 unless it's terrible.

 

The only thing that will hold it back is if it's poorly received by the audience. If it is received how Jungle Book was and Aladdin is being, the sky's the limit. 

[sfran43]

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by sfran43

[Ryan Reynolds]

13 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

warm-up for when Avatar 2 will hit $700M, $800M, $900M , $1000M

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

warm-up for when Avatar 2 will hit $700M, $800M, $900M , $1000M

China ain't gonna let it do more than Wolf Warrior 2

[Ryan Reynolds]

5 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

China ain't gonna let it do more than Wolf Warrior 2

the 2020 Election could be a key factor 😊