Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

Even better shot at $250m DOM now with ~2.8x legs for the 3-day OW. It’ll likely end up ~$30m higher than the higher end of the 4-day projections. I guess so many bought into the online chatter, myself included, that this is so unexpected. Wish I had done a $100 4-day club now lol. 

If the front loaded X-Men could do $234m off $110m 4 day then I don't see $250m being a problem for a family friendly musical that also skews 60% female.

[ScoobyDoo21]

Who knew a Magic Carpet can outfly a Millennium Falcon 😛

[JimiQ]

2 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

Who knew a Magic Carpet can outfly a Millennium Falcon 😛

It did Mecca run in 12 ramadans

[DAR]

19 minutes ago, Julian1410 said:

They would be stupid not to put it in there. But who would sing it? Cause i don’t see this rafiki actor pulling it of. Maybe beyonce can come in there. Isn’t She also supposed to sing ‘shadowlands’ in the movie?

Maybe it’s sung without us seeing the chararcter

[cannastop]

21 minutes ago, Julian1410 said:

They would be stupid not to put it in there. But who would sing it? Cause i don’t see this rafiki actor pulling it of. Maybe beyonce can come in there. Isn’t She also supposed to sing ‘shadowlands’ in the movie?

I don't think Shadowlands was ever confirmed.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, DAR said:

Maybe it’s sung without us seeing the chararcter

That would be extraordinarily lame.

[YM!]

3 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Hahaha, why people underestimate the new spider man film , when it comes to worldwide, I have no idea (instead we are reading about the battle of frozen 2 vs lion king). Nevermind they will learn their lesson soon just like they did with endgame. Hell the new Star Wars has an excellent chance of surpassing these two children films worldwide.

FFH: $450M/$1.2B

TLK: $600M/$1.5B

Frozen 2: $550M/$1.4B

TROS: $600M/$1.2B

 

Also I would say FFH is almost as much as a children’s films than both of those two.

[MCKillswitch123]

16 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

Who knew a Magic Carpet can outfly a Millennium Falcon 😛

I mean, the Genie has phenomenal cosmic powers that could make literally all the Jedi and Sith combined look like a total joke, so it's not like the Aladdinverse is lacking fight-wise

Edited May 26, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[charlie Jatinder]

Let's get Aladdin to $280mn plus. 

[ScoobyDoo21]

23 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

It did Mecca run in 12 ramadans

And all of that without using all the Kerosene. Those 300 Hectares must go much further than we all thought 😛

Edited May 26, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[DAR]

12 minutes ago, cannastop said:

That would be extraordinarily lame.

I was thinking how they used Can You Feel the Love Tonight after the Timon and Pumba part

[charlie Jatinder]

All it need is 3.14x FSS.

 

TJB 3.53x from 103

Maleficent 3.49x from 69

OZ 2.96x from 79

Cindrella 3x from 67

 

Average of these 67-103 openers is 3.27x from 85mn FSS.

 

We have 89FSS and probably 3mn inflated from Sunday being Holiday but deflated Saturday.

 

Roughly goes to 281.

 

 

 

[RamblinRed]

46 minutes ago, nevermore said:

3RD UPDATE, SUNDAY AM: Aladdin just flew to a higher atmosphere. Saturday ticket sales clocked $30M, a -3% dip when compared to Friday+previews figure of $31M. Industry estimates have the Disney live action animated reboot at $89.4Mover 3 days, and a 4-day of $112.7M, now the 5th best bow over Memorial Day weekend ahead of 2014’s X-men: Days of Future Past ($110.5M).

Based on that Sat number both the three day and four day look overly conservative.

An 89.4 3-day would mean a 28.4 Sunday - about a 5% decrease. Solo dropped 0.6%, DP 2 3.4% all the other movies increased slightly on Sunday. Same basic pattern in 2017 where P5 dropped 5% and GotG2 dropped 3%.

I would expect Sunday to be basically flat from Saturday.

And then Monday should be about a 20% drop - though looking at those numbers the more family friendly films held better on Monday than other films. This could potentially finish in the $115 for the 4-day and likely over 90 for the 3 day.

 

 

[cannastop]

Just now, DAR said:

I was thinking how they used Can You Feel the Love Tonight after the Timon and Pumba part

If you're talking about He Lives in You, that could work. But Shadowlands can't work like that, I don't think.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

All it need is 3.14x FSS.

 

TJB 3.53x from 103

Maleficent 3.49x from 69

OZ 2.96x from 79

Cindrella 3x from 67

 

Average of these 67-103 openers is 3.27x from 85mn FSS.

 

We have 89FSS and probably 3mn inflated from Sunday being Holiday but deflated Saturday.

 

Roughly goes to 281.

 

 

 

On one hand I do think that those films opened in different corridors with different scenarios. 3 of those released during or around Spring Break or Easter. And while Maleficent opened around the same time, it didn’t open Memorial Day weekend and probably will be less frontloaded.

 

However, while not the best comparison, Blue Sky’s Epic with an A Cinemascore did a $33M/$43M/$107M run and if Aladdin follows the same trajectory it should get to $282.3M DOM

[dxmatrixdt]

29 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

Who knew a Magic Carpet can outfly a Millennium Falcon 😛

tell that to Krystal

[filmscholar]

BIG WILLIE WEEKEND!!!!!!!!!!  Great Sat Numbers.  Really enjoyed the movie too.  Audience Score is really strong, so hopefully some good WOM. 

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by filmscholar

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Based on that Sat number both the three day and four day look overly conservative.

An 89.4 3-day would mean a 28.4 Sunday - about a 5% decrease. Solo dropped 0.6%, DP 2 3.4% all the other movies increased slightly on Sunday. Same basic pattern in 2017 where P5 dropped 5% and GotG2 dropped 3%.

I would expect Sunday to be basically flat from Saturday.

And then Monday should be about a 20% drop - though looking at those numbers the more family friendly films held better on Monday than other films. This could potentially finish in the $115 for the 4-day and likely over 90 for the 3 day.

 

 

Looking at past comparisons, the more family skewing openers drop more than blockbusters. Alice 2 dropped 10%, Epic dropped 14%, KFP2 dropped 11%, and NATM2 dropped 7%.

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

Btw, booksmart is about female TEENS. So how do GROWN women not seeing it really mean anything? It's like saying that grown men should come out and support movies about teenage boys.

 

I mean, grown men have seen and supported movies about teenage boys before.  Superbad made 120M domestic.

[a2k]

After JW2 in June last year only 1 non-CBM has crossed 225 dom - Grinch with 270. Aladdin will be next.