Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[setna]

I have the feeling that Lion King won´t be so succesful as some people think. 

Too much BATB, Dumbo, Aladdin, Jungle Book, etc, etc... really the same movie with different look..

 

Especially OS i think Will dissapoint a bit... IMO, 

[filmlover]

Shows are still filling up here. I think it's gonna end up closer to $115M for the 4-day.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

What if Godzilla stays on the low end of tracking and Aladdin repeats as #1 next weekend?

That will need Aladdin to do 50mn plus

 

If Aladdin manage 50mn next weekend, 325-350 will be target. Though I believe 40mn is likely scenario, down 49% from True Friday + Saturday + Monday 

[filmscholar]

Top 5 Memorial Day opening All Time.  Beat "Solo" performance last year by 10 Million, so yes this is definitely above expectations.  Will last Topped the Memorial Day Box Office 7 Years ago with "MIB 3" which ended the original "Avengers" reign at the Top spot in 2012.    

 

1	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	$139,802,190	45.2%	4,362	$32,050	$309,420,425	5/25/07
2	Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull	Par.	$126,917,373	40.0%	4,260	$29,792	$317,101,119	5/22/08
3	X-Men: The Last Stand	Fox	$122,861,157	52.4%	3,690	$33,295	$234,362,462	5/26/06
4	Fast & Furious 6	Uni.	$117,036,995	49.0%	3,658	$31,995	$238,679,850	5/24/13
5	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$112,700,000	100.0%	4,476	$25,179	$112,700,000	5/24/19
6	X-Men: Days of Future Past	Fox	$110,576,604	47.3%	3,996	$27,672	$233,921,534	5/23/14
7	The Hangover Part II	WB	$103,426,875	40.6%	3,615	$28,610	$254,464,305	5/26/11
8	Solo: A Star Wars Story	BV	$103,016,812	48.2%	4,381	$23,514	$213,767,512	5/25/18
9	The Lost World: Jurassic Park	Uni.	$90,161,880	39.4%	3,281	$27,480	$229,086,679	5/23/97
10	The Day After Tomorrow	Fox	$85,807,341	45.9%	3,425	$25,053	$186,740,799	5/28/04

Edited May 27, 2019 by filmscholar

[Curtis1986]

4 minutes ago, setna said:

I have the feeling that Lion King won´t be so succesful as some people think. 

Too much BATB, Dumbo, Aladdin, Jungle Book, etc, etc... really the same movie with different look..

 

Especially OS i think Will dissapoint a bit... IMO, 

The Lion King is an event. Its already tracking at 200+

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don't know about that, how low is Godzilla tracking, sub 60m???

50M. MIB 3 had a 48% drop after Memorial Day, so Will Smith has a history here.

[JimiQ]

1 minute ago, Curtis1986 said:

The Lion King is an event. Its already tracking at 200+

Mary Poppins Returns was also "tracking" very well

[ScoobyDoo21]

EW at the top three memorial day weekend openers being Pirate 3, Old Man Jones and the Vibranium Fridge, and The worst X-men movie.

Edited May 27, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[setna]

4 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

The Lion King is an event. Its already tracking at 200+

 

Let´s see, let´s see…..

Edited May 27, 2019 by setna

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

50M. MIB 3 had a 48% drop after Memorial Day, so Will Smith has a history here.

Make a club. i'd be IN

[Curtis1986]

4 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Mary Poppins Returns was also "tracking" very well

LOL are you comparing and huge event film like The Lion King to Mary Poppins. That's like comparing endgames to Shazam

Edited May 27, 2019 by Curtis1986

[filmlover]

I still think Godzilla will pull off $60M+ next weekend but not confidently. Buzz surrounding it sure does feel on the quiet side. A 50-55% drop for Aladdin would still be $40-45M. Also feels like Rocketman is headed for $30M+ along with Ma potentially going over $20M. Gonna be a super strong frame regardless.

Edited May 27, 2019 by filmlover

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

50M. MIB 3 had a 48% drop after Memorial Day, so Will Smith has a history here.

Holy hell, that would be abysmal for Godzilla. Though I have been saying for months that the impact of the first movie as one of the most hated movies of the decade shouldn't be underestimated when it comes to KOTM's opening. 

[Krissykins]

The Hustle with the best hold in the top 10. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I still think Godzilla will pull off $60M+ next weekend but not confidently. Buzz surrounding it sure does feel on the quiet side. A 50-55% drop for Aladdin would still be $40-45M. Also feels like Rocketman is headed for $30M+ along with Ma potentially going over $20M. Gonna be a super strong frame regardless.

My guesses are:

 

Godzilla: 60M

Aladdin: 48M

Rocketman: 35M

Ma: 23M

 

Depending how low Godzilla goes and how WOM is, I'd expect Aladdin to be ahead of it within 2-3 weeks.

[ScoobyDoo21]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

the impact of the first movie as one of the most hated movies of the decade. 

Is it really? Seems more like it is a love and hate it thing like The Last Jedi. Don't get me wrong, i am on the hate side, but most hated movies of the decade? Nah.

 

Godzilla 1998 fits that bill much more though.

[a2k]

KOTM would need to open half it's predecessor for Aladdin to have a shot at #1. Either way, who would have thought this would be a plausible scenario to discuss in the first place? What an over-performance from Aladdin (really everyone but Jafar).

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

LOL are you comparing and huge event film like The Lion King to Mary Poppins. That's like comparing endgames to Shazam

Lol look at the predictions from users on here in the Mary Poppins thread. 

 

People expected gigantic grosses for it.   

[PDC1987]

15 minutes ago, setna said:

I have the feeling that Lion King won´t be so succesful as some people think. 

Too much BATB, Dumbo, Aladdin, Jungle Book, etc, etc... really the same movie with different look..

 

Especially OS i think Will dissapoint a bit... IMO, 

Yet Aladdin just literally doubled Dumbo's OW.

[Lordmandeep]

DOFP did well considering it made like 500 million overseas.