Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Alli]

Poppins should be compared to Dumbo, not Lion King. LK is in another league.  Poppins and Dumbo are both  too old movies to rely on nostalgia. Poppins did good for what it was. Lion King is a relatively new movie that had rereleases that did fantastic

Edited May 27, 2019 by Alli

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

Is it really? Seems more like it is a love and hate it thing like The Last Jedi. Don't get me wrong, i am on the hate side, but most hated movies of the decade? Nah.

 

Godzilla 1998 fits that bill much more though.

The multi was lower than pretty much anything we had seen in blockbuster history prior. BvS came along a few years later and went even lower, but make no mistake, '14 was despised by audiences. No way to get that kind of multi otherwise. 

[Krissykins]

We’ve had 14 #1 movies in 2019 and Aladdin is 5th rotten one. 

[a2k]

Aladdin audience score started a 91% and is now 94%. Critics at 58%. Another BR (61% vs 86%) and TGS (56% vs 86%).

[MovieMan89]

Just now, a2k said:

Aladdin audience score started a 91% and is now 94%. Critics at 58%. Another BR (61% vs 86%) and TGS (56% vs 86%).

This seems to be an even bigger audience discrepancy than those, perhaps the biggest to date? Based on the kind of multi those movies had, a part of me really wants to say Aladdin could get a 4x, however the schedule just really isn't in its favor. 

[PDC1987]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The multi was lower than pretty much anything we had seen in blockbuster history prior. BvS came along a few years later and went even lower, but make no mistake, '14 was despised by audiences. No way to get that kind of multi otherwise. 

Once again I will mention The Purge. Despised first film, 2nd film corrects the problems the GA had with the first, the 2nd film opens a bit lower than the first but then has better legs and ends up outgrossing it.

Edited May 27, 2019 by PDC1987

[John Marston]

Godzilla will be like Pikachu. Loads of internet hype but doesn’t necessarily translate into general audience hype 

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

This seems to be an even bigger audience discrepancy than those, perhaps the biggest to date? Based on the kind of multi those movies had, a part of me really wants to say Aladdin could get a 4x, however the schedule just really isn't in its favor. 

Venom 29% vs 81% is also an epic gap.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/venom_2018

 

EDIT

Yeah Sun increased from Sat so 4x FSS is incredibly difficult. 3x+ would give 271+ beating Grinch which is the biggest non-CBM dom since Fallen Kingdom last June.

Edited May 27, 2019 by a2k

[DAJK]

Is Cloud Atlas worth giving a shot? I could also rent El Royale tonight for 99 cents... but I might just end up watching Brightburn in theatrs

[MovieMan89]

Just now, DAJK said:

Is Cloud Atlas worth giving a shot? I could also rent El Royale tonight for 99 cents... but I might just end up watching Brightburn in theatrs

Yes! Easily the Wachowskis best movie after The Matrix. Although it is pretty love or hate, so you may fall into the latter camp. 

[setna]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Is Cloud Atlas worth giving a shot? I could also rent El Royale tonight for 99 cents... but I might just end up watching Brightburn in theatrs

 

i saw it years ago and for me was one of the most boring films of my life.

I think the idea is good, but too confusing and elitist IMO, just if this says something to you...

[VanillaSkies]

So how many of the TOP 10 domestic films this year will belong to Disney?

My current predictions:

1. Avengers Endgame - 850 million (Disney)

2. Star Wars 9 -625 million (Disney)

3. The Lion King - 600 million (Disney)

4. Frozen 2 - 500 million (Disney)

5. Captain Marvel - 425 million (Disney)

6. Spider-man Far From Home - 350 million (Sony)

7. Toy Story 4 - 350 million (Disney)

8. Jumanji Sequel - 350 million (Sony)

9. It: Chapter 2 - 320 million (Warner Bros.)

10. Aladdin - 300 million (Disney)

 

Total Domination!
It will take a long while before any studio will match Disney's 2019 performance in any given year...

[VanillaSkies]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Is Cloud Atlas worth giving a shot? I could also rent El Royale tonight for 99 cents... but I might just end up watching Brightburn in theatrs

El Royale is quite good.

[ScoobyDoo21]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes! Easily the Wachowskis best movie after The Matrix. Although it is pretty love or hate, so you may fall into the latter camp. 

I am personally more into Speed Racer. Only Anime live action movie i will tolerate

[a2k]

After 3 weekend Pika trails Shazam 116.2 vs 120.4.

Even including Monday in the weekend Pika trails Shazam by a hair, 120.1 vs 120.4

Next weekend onwards it will be a different story 

 

Pika

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
May 10–12	2	$54,365,242	-	4,202	-	$12,938	$54,365,242	1
May 17–19	3	$25,108,159	-53.8%	4,248	+46	$5,911	$94,295,005	2
May 24–26	4	$13,395,000 (Estimate)	-46.7%	3,824	-424	$3,503	$116,217,622 (Estimate)	3
May 24–27	4	$17,275,000 (Estimate)	-31.2%	3,824	-424	$4,518	$120,097,622 (Estimate)	3

 

Shazam

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Apr 5–7	1	$53,505,326	-	4,217	-	$12,688	$56,830,326	1
Apr 12–14	1	$24,453,514	-54.3%	4,306	+89	$5,679	$94,226,527	2
Apr 19–21	2	$16,464,508	-32.7%	4,183	-123	$3,936	$120,437,864	3

 

 

[filmscholar]

Godzilla 14' has always been a "Head scratcher" for me.  Over 90 Million OW but crawled to 200?   "Skull Island" did 61 a few years ago and had a better multipier too around 2.7x.   But it's been 5 years since the last one but Godzilla has the brand recognition.   I'm personally  leaning more towards "Skull Island" numbers right now with all the competition out.  

[cdsacken]

47 minutes ago, setna said:

I have the feeling that Lion King won´t be so succesful as some people think. 

Too much BATB, Dumbo, Aladdin, Jungle Book, etc, etc... really the same movie with different look..

 

Especially OS i think Will dissapoint a bit... IMO, 

Tracking indicates otherwise. 180-230 OW for me indicates 1.2/1.3B floor.

[ThomasNicole]

Aladdin need Pirates 5 legs to make $ 250M, so yeah, i think we could use the word “locked”.

 

Being realistic, it could finish with $ 275-280M, but $ 300M is pretty much possible now.

 

$ 700M WW seems like a good bet now too

[setna]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Tracking indicates otherwise. 180-230 OW for me indicates 1.2/1.3B floor.

 

...probably i´m wrong, but i have this feeling...

[vafrow]

5 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

So how many of the TOP 10 domestic films this year will belong to Disney?

My current predictions:

1. Avengers Endgame - 850 million (Disney)

2. Star Wars 9 -625 million (Disney)

3. The Lion King - 600 million (Disney)

4. Frozen 2 - 500 million (Disney)

5. Captain Marvel - 425 million (Disney)

6. Spider-man Far From Home - 350 million (Sony)

7. Toy Story 4 - 350 million (Disney)

8. Jumanji Sequel - 350 million (Sony)

9. It: Chapter 2 - 320 million (Warner Bros.)

10. Aladdin - 300 million (Disney)

 

Total Domination!
It will take a long while before any studio will match Disney's 2019 performance in any given year...

 

I think both Jumanji and It may a strong chance at falling below $300M. They both performed well above expectations at the time, but neither movie really gets talked about much now. I think both will need to do a lot of marketing to get people back to the hyoe levels necessary. Jumanji can't expect them legs they had last times and will need to make a lot over the busy holiday period.

 

If those 2 call short, that could give Disney the top 8 films or have a hand in at least (FFH).