filmscholar Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 (edited) TS4 is doing just fine, I think the trades overreacted this weekend. "Tracking" is what it is but isn't the end all be all. Would 130-150 been better? Sure it would. But 120 for a 25 year of Franchise is still amazing. This is the 4th film of the franchise. I also think "Dory" and "I2" loom like a shadow over every future Pixar movie. TS4 did not have a 14-year Gap, it wasn't a direct sequel like both of those. I think it's unfair that TS4 to put it under those expectations. Was there a segment of the fanbase that had closure from TS3? Sure there was. Edited June 26, 2019 by filmscholar 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 I think the most impressive Tuesday bump was Hotel Transylvania 3's, 5.0m on Monday to 8.5m Tuesday, 69% and $3.5m This Toy Story 4 bump is up there though, 45% and $6.35m, bigger in both percentage and dollar terms than both Incredibles and Dory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Great Tuesday bump for TS4. As always I want to see the Mon-Wed comparison - will its Wed stay above its Mon like Aladdin has been doing its entire run. If it can then its legs are likely to be strong. Really good Tuesday for the top 6 outside of CP - which was expected due to Annabelle. The only comparison I am really looking at for TS4 is TS3. TS4 will have a big advantage the first few weeks since it was released in summer so its weekdays should be higher and TS3 was released on Father's Day weekend so it has a few weeks before it gets those legs. TS3 will likely have the advantage later in its run. After Tuesday TS4 has roughly a 14.5M edge on TS3. TS3 had a 59.3M 2nd weekend. How close can TS4 come to that. The bottom of the top 10 - JW3, KOTM, XDP were not very good. I expect theater losses negatively impacted them. None of them rose nearly as much as the top 6 (outside of CP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 (edited) Anybody else a little underwhelmed with the AE re-release (which does not keep my son from wanting to see it). It's adding less than a 1,000 screens DOM - so basically doubling its current total and likely to be either 6th or 7th largest in total theaters depending upon how many screen RM loses. So its not going to be everywhere - heck Yesterday is going to be in alot more theaters than it will be. Not really a wide release. Adding an intro from the director, an unfinished deleted scene, a tribute to Stan Lee and a sneak peek of FFH that comes out in just a few more days. That doesn't seem like alot. Don't really see it climbing back into the top 5 as TS4, Annabelle, Yesterday, and Aladdin are all very likely to be in front of it. So if one of SLOP2, MIB, RM, or CP outperform it then it misses the top 5. Edited June 26, 2019 by RamblinRed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: Anybody else a little underwhelmed with the AE re-release (which does not keep my son from wanting to see it). It's adding less than a 1,000 screens DOM - so basically doubling its current total and likely to be either 6th or 7th largest in total theaters depending upon how many screen RM loses. So its not going to be everywhere - heck Yesterday is going to be in alot more theaters than it will be. Not really a wide release. Adding an intro from the director, an unfinished deleted scene, a tribute to Stan Lee and a sneak peek of FFH that comes out in just a few more days. That doesn't seem like alot. Don't really see it climbing back into the top 5 as TS4, Annabelle, Yesterday, and Aladdin are all very likely to be in front of it. So if one of SLOP2, MIB, RM, or CP outperform it then it misses the top 5. If much more was added would it be considered a different cut and a different release altogether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 (edited) One way it can match DORY's 46%+ drop is by doing just under Tue on Fri, 19 25 (+31.5%) 20 (-20%) = 64 (-47%) DORY did 23.2 on Tue and 23.2 on Fri I2 did 27.0 on Tue and 24.1 on Fri 18 Fri would give 60-61, close to 50% drop with those holds. Edited June 26, 2019 by a2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vafrow Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: Anybody else a little underwhelmed with the AE re-release (which does not keep my son from wanting to see it). It's adding less than a 1,000 screens DOM - so basically doubling its current total and likely to be either 6th or 7th largest in total theaters depending upon how many screen RM loses. So its not going to be everywhere - heck Yesterday is going to be in alot more theaters than it will be. Not really a wide release. Adding an intro from the director, an unfinished deleted scene, a tribute to Stan Lee and a sneak peek of FFH that comes out in just a few more days. That doesn't seem like alot. Don't really see it climbing back into the top 5 as TS4, Annabelle, Yesterday, and Aladdin are all very likely to be in front of it. So if one of SLOP2, MIB, RM, or CP outperform it then it misses the top 5. I checked my local 8 screen theatre for the weekend, and it seems they opted for Yesterday over Endgame. It's hard to blame them. The upside on this re-release seems limited. What interest is there would disappear once FFH releases in a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 I wouldn't read much at all into Toys4 Tuesday...the 1st Tuesday is pretty much "opening day for middle class families" now, since it's the 1st discount day of the run. I'd be much more interested in Wed/Thurs/Fri to see where the run might go, b/c this day was just the natural OW extension... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 My theater with 10 screens added three showtimes per day for Endgame starting Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: If much more was added would it be considered a different cut and a different release altogether? IDK, A Star Is Born got an "Encore" version with 12 more minutes and BOM doesn't separate it out as a different release. The original cut was still in theaters and the weekend after the Oscars, the new version replaced it as far as I could tell (every movie theater site I remember looking up suddenly seemed to have the longer runtime for it). If you didn't know and just looked up ASIB's run on the box office charts, you would see the 200 percent jump that weekend and think it was only due to the Oscars performance and win. Those things *helped*, but not that much. If you do release a proper new cut of a movie in theaters, it has to get re-rated by the MPAA, even if the rating doesn't change. I don't know if that had to happen with Endgame, since it seems like stuff is tacked on more than being integrated into the film. Plus, Endgame is already 3 hours long. Maybe there will be some Extended Cut someday that is 4 hours or something but that would probably be more for home viewing than theaters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 1 hour ago, RamblinRed said: Great Tuesday bump for TS4. As always I want to see the Mon-Wed comparison - will its Wed stay above its Mon like Aladdin has been doing its entire run. If it can then its legs are likely to be strong. Really good Tuesday for the top 6 outside of CP - which was expected due to Annabelle. The only comparison I am really looking at for TS4 is TS3. TS4 will have a big advantage the first few weeks since it was released in summer so its weekdays should be higher and TS3 was released on Father's Day weekend so it has a few weeks before it gets those legs. TS3 will likely have the advantage later in its run. After Tuesday TS4 has roughly a 14.5M edge on TS3. TS3 had a 59.3M 2nd weekend. How close can TS4 come to that. The bottom of the top 10 - JW3, KOTM, XDP were not very good. I expect theater losses negatively impacted them. None of them rose nearly as much as the top 6 (outside of CP). There wont be a difference in the weekdays as far as timing goes between TS3 and TS4. Fathers day was only 1 weekend behind, not several weeks so the entire run for TS3 was definitely summer and summer weekdays. The biggest changes will be the shift in how tues-wed-thurs play out each week as TS3 was before Thursday previews and the Tuesday increases / Wednesday drops are much more noticeable than even in 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Obviously fantastic increase. My showing in a 250 seat theater last night was nearly full. Really fantastic movie, WOM should continue to be excellent, it will completely win over the skeptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Wow, Dark Phoenix is already behind John Wick 3? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 As far as AE goes for me locally. I have 3 theaters I tend to go to a 12-plex (actually my fav), a 16-plex (the closest to me) and a 15-plex. The 12-plex had dropped AE 2 weeks ago. It is having the re-release. It has given it a 1/2 screen with 3 showings (8 am, 12:15, 7:30). Anna has that screen for 4:15 and 11:15 shows. On Sunday and Monday they drop the 8 am show and just have 2 showings. It has sold 37 tickets for Fri-Mon so far - with 27 of them coming in the Fr 7:30 and Sat 7:30. 5 of the 10 showings have 0 tickets sold. It has 2 tickets sold total for Sun and Mon so far. At the 16-plex they traded the 3 shows of AE for 3 shows of the re-release (12:15, 4:15, 8:15). Across 12 shows Fri-Mon it has sold 16 tickets with 6 of the 12 shows having sold 0 and the most sold for a show being 6. The 15-plex is similar. Traded 3 AE's for 3 re-releases, same basic times as the 16-plex. Also had sold less than 20 tickets through Monday. At least locally so far it doesn't feel like its going to do a ton more than the non re-released version would have done. Maybe it will pick up today now that all the shows are available for PS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaz Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 48 minutes ago, a2k said: One way it can match DORY's 46%+ drop is by doing just under Tue on Fri, 19 25 (+31.5%) 20 (-20%) = 64 (-47%) DORY did 23.2 on Tue and 23.2 on Fri I2 did 27.0 on Tue and 24.1 on Fri 18 Fri would give 60-61, close to 50% drop with those holds. I don’t think it will approach those numbers. Dory had a godly run its first two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexMA Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 That $2.7 million for Aladdin's 33rd (!!!) day is music to my ears. Now let's see tomorrow if it can keep the Wednesday higher than Monday streak going for a 4th consecutive week (first week was the only one where that didn't happen, but only because Monday was part of the extended opening weekend so it was impossible to match it on the following Wednesday). If that estimate from Charlie holds Aladdin will be at $293 million in 33 days. Could hit 300 million as early as Friday but most likely will happen on Saturday, so day 36 or 37. So either even with Mockingjay Part 1 ($337.1M) and Deadpool 2 ($318.5M) or immediately below them and above Thor: Ragnarok ($315.1M). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 (edited) 46 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: I wouldn't read much at all into Toys4 Tuesday...the 1st Tuesday is pretty much "opening day for middle class families" now, since it's the 1st discount day of the run. I'd be much more interested in Wed/Thurs/Fri to see where the run might go, b/c this day was just the natural OW extension... I would. If it was a muted increase I would expect a 50m second weekend. A strong one makes a case for 60m quite the difference. Edited June 26, 2019 by cdsacken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 I never felt this re-release would do much to boost Endgames numbers DOM/OS. Seemed half-hearted and unnecessary. Nothing wrong with the numbers it was tracking to finish with without this re-release. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said: I never felt this re-release would do much to boost Endgames numbers DOM/OS. Seemed half-hearted and unnecessary. Nothing wrong with the numbers it was tracking to finish with without this re-release. Well that's like saying as a runner you are .01 seconds from gold but might as well just accept silver. Doing this bit and a proper rerelease with premium formats ensures the record aka gold medal of box office. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: I never felt this re-release would do much to boost Endgames numbers DOM/OS. Seemed half-hearted and unnecessary. Nothing wrong with the numbers it was tracking to finish with without this re-release. You should call it re-expansion in 4 days rather than re-release. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
