SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[Orestes]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

If Tobey Maguire didn't get an Oscar, then Tom Holland sure as hell shouldn't get one

Maguire was good, but Holland is better, if only just. Or maybe I just like that Holland's version isn't as much of a sad sack. Both are miles better than Garfield, though.

[Porthos]

Guess I'll make this post comparing 2019 and 2018 to date after all (decided not to post it yesterday but with the current discussion I think it might be of interest after all).

 

WARNING:::: LONG POST INCOMING

 

====

 

Quote

Compare: YTD (Jan 1–Jul 5) Year-to-Year - YTD through Jan. YTD through Feb. YTD through Mar. YTD through Apr. YTD through May YTD through Jun. YTD through Jul. YTD through Aug. YTD through Sep. YTD through Oct. YTD through Nov. -- Winter Spring Summer Fall Holiday Season-to-Date --- Q1 (Jan–Mar) Q2 (Apr–Jun) Q3 (Jul–Sep) Q4 (Oct–Dec) Quarter-to-Date 

Year	Gross*	2019 % change	2018 % change	2017 % change	2016 % change	2015 % change	2014 % change
2019	$5,858.1	-	-8.4%	+0.6%	+0.1%	+1.5%	+8.4%
2018	$6,393.3	+9.1%	-	+9.8%	+9.2%	+10.7%	+18.3%
2017	$5,823.2	-0.6%	-8.9%	-	-0.5%	+0.9%	+7.7%
2016	$5,852.2	-0.1%	-8.5%	+0.5%	-	+1.4%	+8.3%
2015	$5,774.0	-1.4%	-9.7%	-0.8%	-1.3%	-	+6.8%
2014	$5,405.5	-7.7%	-15.5%	-7.2%	-7.6%	-6.4%	-

So far 2019 is now more or less on pace with both 2017 and 2016, slightly ahead even.  But it until very recently it was falling further and further behind 2018 (I recall it being 5 percent behind a while back, but it did claw back about 35m yesterday which is no small feat, going from 9.8% less to 9.1% less).

 

I decided to take a bit of a deeper look at things to see if we can just 'blame Endgame' as some folks have.

 

Top 4 movies for 2018 and 2019, all Jan 1 - July 5.

 

2018:

Quote

1 Black Panther BV $699,844,707 4,084 $700,059,566 100.0% 2/16/18 2 Avengers: Infinity War BV $673,929,474 4,474 $678,815,482 99.3% 4/27/18 3 Incredibles 2 BV $475,361,414 4,410 $608,581,744 78.1% 6/15/18 4 Deadpool 2 Fox $312,871,400 4,349 $318,491,426 98.2% 5/18/18

2.162b

 

2019:

Quote

1 Avengers: Endgame BV $845,828,833 4,662 $845,828,833 100.0% 4/26/19 2 Captain Marvel BV $426,829,839 4,310 $426,829,839 100.0% 3/8/19 3 Aladdin (2019) BV $315,779,616 4,476 $315,779,616 100.0% 5/24/19 4 Toy Story 4 BV $284,157,544 4,575 $284,157,544 100.0% 6/21/19

1.873b.  Difference of 289m.   Even the top two 2018 movies made 101m more while three and four are lagging even more behind at this date.

 

What about the next four?

 

2018:

Quote

5 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. $304,757,665 4,485 $417,719,760 73.0% 6/22/18 6 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $235,512,923 3,849 $404,515,480 58.2% 12/20/17 7 Solo: A Star Wars Story BV $209,860,097 4,381 $213,767,512 98.2% 5/25/18 8 A Quiet Place Par. $187,309,628 3,808 $188,024,361 99.6% 4/6/18

937.4m

 

2019:

Quote

5 Us Uni. $175,005,930 3,743 $175,005,930 100.0% 3/22/19 6 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum LG/S $163,713,649 3,850 $163,713,649 100.0% 5/17/19 7 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Uni. $160,799,505 4,286 $160,799,505 100.0% 2/22/19 8 Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $142,692,000 4,248 $142,692,041 100.0% 5/10/19

642.2m.  Difference of 295.2m  About the same level of difference. Every single film down from its counterpart.

 

There is a little bit of release schedule at play, as JW2 made a little under 75% of its run at this point and I suppose its nearest analogue in FFH has just started (which will be in the next field).  But even then Jumanji 2's holdover still laps the rest of the current 2019 field.  Even Solo laughs at the current placement 5-8 placement of 2019 films.  Not for long, of course with the rest of FFH's run and TLK looming.  But still, frankly embarrassing for 2019.

 

It's only when we get to slots 9-12 where things level out finally:

 

2018:

Quote

9 Ready Player One WB $137,018,455 4,234 $137,690,172 99.5% 3/29/18 10 The Greatest Showman Fox $125,269,412 3,342 $174,340,174 71.9% 12/20/17 11 Ocean's 8 WB $121,466,228 4,145 $140,218,711 86.6% 6/8/18 12 Peter Rabbit Sony $115,253,424 3,725 $115,253,424 100.0% 2/9/18

 499.0m

 

2019:

Quote

9 Shazam! WB (NL) $140,105,000 4,306 $140,105,365 100.0% 4/5/19 10 The Secret Life of Pets 2 Uni. $137,563,335 4,564 $137,563,335 100.0% 6/7/19 11 Aquaman WB $136,001,983 4,184 $335,061,807 40.6% 12/21/18 12 Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony $123,955,628 4,634 $123,955,628 100.0% 7/2/19

537.6m.  Here 2019 finally takes a lead with about 38.6m more.

Won't quote them but for slots 13-16, 2019 is 38.8m ahead and 60.3m ahead in slots 17-20.

 

TLK will help things and produce a great boost.  But there's a lot of ground to catch up on (535.2m at current count).  And if EG is any indication, TLK might just undercut a few of the movies coming out after it.

 

Got some thoughts on all of this, but I'll put them in my next post to break this up a bit as it's getting a bit long.

[Mekanos]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I'm not saying his performance was Oscar-worthy for the record, because it's definitely not perfect.  But he did a damn great job most of the time, and I think he's better than Holland.  I'm not sure how a 2 second clip of him screaming is supposed to prove he's a bad actor in those movies.

I don't think Maguire is bad in those movies, but nothing spectacular either.

 

Or amazing.

 

Or ultimate.

 

Or superior.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Mekanos

[Porthos]

Now part of the problem with comparing 2019 and 2018 is that 2018 was fairly top heavy when it came to the timing of releases of the Top 10.  The 2018 Calendar Year Top 5 had already been released by this point (Aquaman 'only' did 199m in calendar year 2018) while very few of us think that is gonna be the case for 2019.  

 

Outside the 2018 Top Cal Year Five still have Grinch (266 cal year) and Mission Impossible (220.2) to come, as well A Star is Born (201.2 cal year) [BR did 189.8 cal year].  And, of course, Ant-Man and the Wasp (216.6) had just released. And prob should mention Venom (213.3m cal year) as the last cal year 200m grosser (RBtI made a decent chunk in 2019).

 

However even outside TLK, there's still It: Chapter 2, Frozen 2 (2019 portion), Jumanji 3 (19 days), and The Rise of Skywalker (12 days). Not to mention other possible 200m movies out there.

 

Deadline mentioned in its latest report that as of yesterday the "summer period" kicked off by EG has pulled even with the same period of time as 2018.  That means most of the current 2019 slump was from BEFORE Endgame.  That is, 2019 had a really really bad 1st quarter (which we all knew) and has finally caught up with 2018's second quarter. 

 

Now there is something to be said about buzz and attention being stolen and that affecting the box office surrounding films.  That might explain what went down in April as the films released then got sucked up in a EG buzz vortex, but that still doesn't explain Jan, Feb, and March. Of course, Black Panther gave 2018 a huge lead but that doesn't account for all of it as Captain Marvel was within 275m of it or so, which means there is still around 300m unaccounted for.

 

We'll see what happens with TLK and how much it outshines what was released 2018, but this just could be a case of 2019 being more spread out when it comes to big films than 2018 barring the beginning of the year while 2018 was more top heavy on the calendar for big films.  On the flip side it also could be that 2018 will have more 175m to 300m grossers while 2019 being a bit more feast or famine.  

 

I suppose it's the feast or famine nature of 2019 which is really separating it from 2018 in the end.  2018 ended up with a lot of mid-range hits in the 175-300 range (ten films released in 2018 fit the bill) while at the moment only US barely squeaks into that range (not counting TS4 as that will blow by it).  On the other hand, at this point in time there were only two films released 2018 films in that range (not counting Jumanji's holdover as I'm now measuring slightly different things).  So maybe some mid-range hits will arise after all.

 

Will the forthcoming megahits mentioned above drown out the other films on the calendar?  Or will good films still capture attention as they did last year, if not to the same degree.  Be interesting to find out one way or the other.

[baumer]

10 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

If Tobey Maguire didn't get an Oscar, then Tom Holland sure as hell shouldn't get one

 

I think Maguire is terrific as SM.  But Holland is on a different level...imo.

[Geo1500]

25 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think Maguire is terrific as SM.  But Holland is on a different level...imo.

 

Holland is awesome hope to see him as Spiderman for a long time to come

 

 

Edited July 6, 2019 by Geo1500

[Menor the Destroyer]

I like Maguire but Holland is just perfect for the role

[YM!]

In terms of Spidey performances

 

Moore = Holland > Magiure > Garfield

 

None deserve Oscars though.

[lorddemaxus]

I think FFH is a good indicator of how a few other movies will open this year. It 2, Jumanji The Next Level, and Star Wars TROS are releasing almost exactly two years away from their 2017 predecessors and have similar competition to their predecessors. With FFH increasing by around 20% from Homecoming, I think we can see a similar increase for those three. Maybe not as much as FFH because it had a holiday which Homecoming didn't have and that mythical Endgame boost but around a 15% increase in OW sounds about right.

 

I know that Annabelle also released this year but it released in a more crowded month than Creation.

 

Edit: Actually Jumanji will probably open to double the last film because of how low that one opened.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Valonqar]

neither Tobey nor Tom will ever get the Oscar for Spiderman not because they aren't worthy but because they don't break enough plates in that role. Go ham or go home. 

[Davidwested]

oscar winning performance

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think FFH is a good indicator of how a few other movies will open this year. It 2, Jumanji The Next Level, and Star Wars TROS are releasing almost exactly two years away from their 2017 predecessors and have similar competition to their predecessors. With FFH increasing by around 20% from Homecoming, I think we can see a similar increase for those three. Maybe not as much as FFH because it had a holiday which Homecoming didn't have and that mythical Endgame boost but around a 15% increase in OW sounds about right.

 

I know that Annabelle also released this year but it released in a more crowded month than Creation.

 

Edit: Actually Jumanji will probably open to double the last film because of how low that one opened.

 

 

I don't think that comparison really works. Each of those films/franchises is in a different place and has different circumstances surrounding it.

[TwoMisfits]

56 minutes ago, baumer said:

Tom Holland deserves an Oscar for his performance as Peter Parker....he's that good.

From your lips to the academy's ears...we should have RDJ and Tom Holland as nominees...better than another actor who gets rewarded for just aping music videos again (this part is a little tongue-in-cheek:)...

[YM!]

Moore is probably the best Spider-Man in solo movies.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Moore? That shouldn't be considered. Completely different. Unless he was captured via some sort of motion capture that I'm unaware of... If he's considered than all voice actors that have ever done Spidey get consideration as well.

[CoolioD1]

top five cinematic spider-men

 

1. Shameik Moore

2. Jake Johnson

3. Nicolas Cage

4. John Mulaney

5. Hailee Steinfeld.

[CoolioD1]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

If he's considered than all voice actors that have ever done Spidey get consideration as well.

no we're talking about movies.

Edited July 6, 2019 by CoolioD1

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

top five cinematic spider-men

 

1. Shameik Moore

2. Jake Johnson

3. Nicolas Cage

4. John Mulaney

5. Hailee Steinfeld.

Chris Pine the odd Spider-Man out, eh?

[CoolioD1]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Chris Pine the odd Spider-Man out, eh?

he was a bad spider-man. died on the job.

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't think that comparison really works. Each of those films/franchises is in a different place and has different circumstances surrounding it.

It and Jumanji seemed to have similar and maybe even better WoM than Homecoming so I don't think there is too much difference there in terms of circumstances. TROS is in a different place in that sense but its Star Wars.