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[a2k]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

idk , the presales however do seem to indicate a 55-60+ true friday but hey we will know soon enought

 

ps doesnt mean that you cant be right though, as i dont think that its crazy or unreasonable

yeah. if one uses 3.4x compared to batb's 3.9x and middle of 22-25 preview range,

 

23.5

56.5 (80 od)

70.5 (+25% ... +30% i used earlier could be bit much for middle of summer. could do +20-25% on Sat)

56.5 (-20%)

= 207 (8.8x)

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

yeah. if one uses 3.4x compared to batb's 3.9x and middle of 22-25 preview range,

 

23.5

56.5 (80 od)

70.5 (+25% ... +30% i used earlier could be bit much for middle of summer. could do +20-25% on Sat)

56.5 (-20%)

= 207 (8.8x)

yeah it depends on what data you are using, so you get different results, either way its gonna be an intresting weekend at last

 

ps other than ffh and the staying power of ts4 and aladdin the summer is not good

Edited July 19, 2019 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

32 minutes ago, a2k said:

24

48 (72 od, 3x previews)

62.5 (+30%)

50 (-20%)

= 184.5 ow (7.69x previews)

No way it will be as low as 48 for Friday. Presales are huge. It would have to be more presale loaded than Captain Marvel.

[XXR vs XXR]

I’d be pretty surprised at this point if true Friday came in below $55m. Looking at my data and the data others have already provided, I’d expect it to be closer to $70m than $50m.

[ban1o]

 I'm not surprised the verified audience rating is lower for Lion King than Aladdin. After I watched it I knew the legs wouldn't be as great as Aladdin's. . I thought Aladdin was a genuinely good movie that critics were a bit un fair to and can 100% understand  why audiences love it so much. With Lion King, although I did really enjoy it I think critics were more on target in their assessment of  the film. It will still make a lot of money though 

Edited July 19, 2019 by ban1o

[The Panda]

The Lion King spoilers without context:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There were no pictures because there’s nothing to spoil.

[baumer]

29 minutes ago, a2k said:

yeah. if one uses 3.4x compared to batb's 3.9x and middle of 22-25 preview range,

 

23.5

56.5 (80 od)

70.5 (+25% ... +30% i used earlier could be bit much for middle of summer. could do +20-25% on Sat)

56.5 (-20%)

= 207 (8.8x)

I don't think you can use Beauty and the Beast in this case. Beauty and the Beast was at a different time of year and there's a lot more people that are able to see Lion King previews. I'm not saying it can't hit 200 but I don't really think it will not based on a 22 million summer preview number.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't think you can use Beauty and the Beast in this case. Beauty and the Beast was at a different time of year and there's a lot more people that are able to see Lion King previews. I'm not saying it can't hit 200 but I don't really think it will not based on a 22 million summer preview number.

It doesn't need anywhere near BATB IM to hit 200 from 22. In fact BATB IM would give 236 which I don't think anyone is arguing for. My optimistic guess is 22-65-72-60 or 219, pessimistically 22-60-66-55 for 203.

[charlie Jatinder]

First trend in 15 mins.

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't think you can use Beauty and the Beast in this case. Beauty and the Beast was at a different time of year and there's a lot more people that are able to see Lion King previews. I'm not saying it can't hit 200 but I don't really think it will not based on a 22 million summer preview number.

 

Why not? 

 

TS4 = 12m x 10.08

I2 = 18.3m x 9.97

JW:FK = 15.3 x 9.68

 

Even FK’s multiplier puts it over $200m at 22 previews. That has a 49 audience rating while this has a 90. I see no reason it falls below 9.5x

[wildphantom]

I don’t buy this ‘it won’t have as good legs as Aladdin’. 

Aladdin had great legs once the word got out that it was good. The week before it opened many of its ultimate audience weren’t going! The attendance has been spread out over a number of weeks. 

 

Lion King is the opposite. People are showing up for what will be one of the biggest OW’s we’ve ever seen. So it’s almost certainly going to be more frontloaded. It’ll likely have gone past Aladdin after 10 days anyway. 

What I’m trying to say is I don’t think Aladdin would have had the legs it’s had if it’s fan base flocked OW. Truth is, they didn’t...they waited to be convinced. 

 

Just because the reviews have been mixed for LK that’s not going to have put many off seeing it in gargantuan numbers this weekend, unlike Aladdin.  The spectacle is too much for people to resist. 

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Back in the 70s, I loved Kimba the White Lion. When the LK came out in 1994, I immediately saw some similarities. But enough to say the LK is a "ripoff"? No. 

http://youtu.be/vHps2iC8W3o

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't think you can use Beauty and the Beast in this case. Beauty and the Beast was at a different time of year and there's a lot more people that are able to see Lion King previews. I'm not saying it can't hit 200 but I don't really think it will not based on a 22 million summer preview number.

i have used lower multi than batb in that calc : od as 3.4x previews vs 3.9x. yeah march vs july and increasing preview heaviness will give it much lower multi than batb over od and ow.

 

regarding the ow, i don't think ow will go higher than 9x the previews for tlk.

batb's ow was close to 11x the previews.

[baumer]

13 minutes ago, Menor said:

It doesn't need anywhere near BATB IM to hit 200 from 22. In fact BATB IM would give 236 which I don't think anyone is arguing for. My optimistic guess is 22-65-72-60 or 219, pessimistically 22-60-66-55 for 203.

It will not hit 200 OW. Quote me on that.

[charlie Jatinder]

Well. Well.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, baumer said:

It will not hit 200 OW. Quote me on that.

I have similar confidence that it will. Well, we'll see in a bit.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, baumer said:

It will not hit 200 OW. Quote me on that.

 

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Well. Well.

Here we go

[charlie Jatinder]

From what I am seeing 25mn Thursday is likely. 

 

OD shall easily be 90+.

 

Over 220 weekend shall happen.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

From what I am seeing 25mn Thursday is likely. 

 

OD shall easily be 90+.