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3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I don’t get why people are excited about the live action Lion King when we got a perfectly better one last year:

 

 

Overrated.

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4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I don’t get why people are excited about the live action Lion King when we got a perfectly better one last year:

 

 

Oh stop. I get so sick of that argument. BP to LK was not like Avatar to Pocahantas. 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Only FFH is one that was off from.early numbers, which I had no comp for Tuesday OD so got it wrong.

24mn Friday pre-sales, double of TS4 ($70mn True Friday) and +70% JWFK ($73mn).

 

I understand your concern, in fact after FFH I sorta thought of not doing early numbers but the numbers for next 5 days were on spot so doing for TLK with reinstated faith.

 

Ofcourse they can go wrong; but that's the risk we are gonna take. And for everyone don't @ me tomorrow over this. If every one agrees, we can stop these early numbers for OD.

No one agrees on that. Just because one person doubt you doesn't mean we all think like that. I mean it's okay for him to disagree, and he could be right in the end, we don't know that. But you have the data, you know how to read it, so it's your right to share (or not to share) the early numbers you got, whatever they are. And we still very much appreciate it.

Edited by catlover
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As Charlie said in his they are PROJECTIONS. Subject to change. Not everything is predicted perfectly. 

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Can’t see any meltdowns happening unless Lion King goes under $200m.

 

It seems it’ll be way above that. 

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

The milestone I'm watching for this weekend is "First Rotten movie to open over $200 mil domestic" 

Secondary milestone: Can it beat The Force Awakens OW

 

With a $25mil Thursday, I'm thinking the first one is definitely a ☑️... Question now is whether that second one is going to happen. 

The Jurassic World comparisons that came up earlier seem like a good baseline to me... Can we use that movie's day-to-day percentage increases and decreases over OW and apply them to this $25mil Thursday Preview for an idea of what a similar Lion King performance might look like? 

Keep in mind Jurassic World had an 18.5 Thursday off 4200 theaters. Lion King is possibly pulling 25 off 4725

 

Jurassic World: 
18.5 Thurs
63.4 Fri (+242.7%)
69.6 Sat (+9.7%) 

57.2 Sun (-17.8)

OW Total: 208.8

 

Using that arc...

Lion King:
25 Thurs

85.9 Fri (+242.7%)

94.3 Sat (+9.7%)

77.5 Sun (-17.8)

OW Total: 282.7


So if Lion King performs exactly like Jurassic World did, with the benefit of an extra 500+ theaters, it'd look like that.... This of course also doesn't take into account that Jurassic World wasn't as family friendly, although many families did go to that movie opening weekend. 

 

editing to say: apologies for whatever math I've botched up, LOL

Edited by LawrenceBrolivier

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8 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I don’t get why people are excited about the live action Lion King when we got a perfectly better one last year:

 

 

believe me i can describe BP by anything, perfect is not one of them.

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$23m is huge and bang in line with earlier projections. 

 

Where does that stand on the record books? 

 

$200m locked.

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Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

 

Awesome. I would stick with around 210m for OW. 60m true friday, 68 sat and 60m sunday(helped by strong spillovers). 211m OW.

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1 minute ago, Biggestgeekever said:

 

 

23m previews and holding strong at 4.5/5 verified audience rating. WOM will be plenty strong.

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This probably isn't too frontloaded either so $200M+ is definitely looking good right now.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, baumer said:

I am not being rude at all whatsoever to Charlie. I respect Charlie immensely. I'm just saying stick to what you're good at. he went all crazy when it came too far from home and got everybody's hopes up and then when it came way under his projection or prediction people started wondering what went wrong with the movie.

While I get your concern, I was here and didn't see what you are talking about at all. It was a harder comp since it started with midnight Mondays, I don't think anyone got disappointed with Far From Home numbers, or wondered "what went wrong" with either that or Charlie's numbers. It was completely understandable, even to noobies.

 

 

Edited by Zatt Hawkguy Murdock
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4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

 

Deadline really got that range right this time

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

 

 

$23 instead of $25! Okay, let's redo that Jurassic World comparison arc then...

 

Jurassic World: 
18.5 Thurs
63.4 Fri (+242.7%)
69.6 Sat (+9.7%) 

57.2 Sun (-17.8)

OW Total: 208.8

 

Using that arc...

Lion King:
23 Thurs

78.8 Fri (+242.7%)

86.5 Sat (+9.7%)

71.1 Sun (-17.8)

OW Total: 259.4


Caveats include... me not getting the math quite right LOL, Lion King being in almost 600 more theaters, and being a more family-friendly movie. 

editing to say: So both my earlier milestones would be hit in this case. 

Edited by LawrenceBrolivier

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