Weekend Thread: Weekend Estimates - Jokah 55, Addams 30.3, Gemini 20.5, Abominable 6.2, Downton 4.9 | Parasite generates 125.4K PTA (highest since La La Land)

[reddevil19]

Just now, cdsacken said:

 Lots of competition coming

Really? Especially for its demos? Competition seems fairly weak for the rest of the month.

I agree with still staying conservative, but that's mostly down to not yet having official Thu number,s let alone an idea of how the weekend will actually unfold. Competition-wise, I think it's in quite a good position.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Really? Especially for its demos? Competition seems fairly weak for the rest of the month.

I agree with still staying conservative, but that's mostly down to not yet having official Thu number,s let alone an idea of how the weekend will actually unfold. Competition-wise, I think it's in quite a good position.

Competition that eats all the premium screens and yes rated r competition is coming. Literally nothing this weekend..2 big duds

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Of course, but $48M wouldn't be a good multiplier from Thursday (worse than Venom, Logan, Captain Marvel, Shazam...).

True. Worst second weekend to Thursday multiple in DC is BvS, using that gives me 53M

[Jonwo]

If Joker manages to outgross the first Harry Potter film then it'll mean DC occupies 7 of the top ten Warner Bros films of all time domestically. OS and WW, Harry Potter still has the edge

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Competition that eats all the premium screens and yes rated r competition is coming. Literally nothing this weekend..2 big duds

If we're going by what Keyser and Charlie have, losing IMAX isn't hurting Joker that much, and I doubt losing other PLFs next week will hurt it either. And Zombieland doesn't seem like it'll do that much next week (if anything, it might get hurt by Joker at this point), and the next big R-rated release is Terminator which is in about three weeks and Joker will have already made up most of its money.

[reddevil19]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Competition that eats all the premium screens and yes rated r competition is coming. Literally nothing this weekend..2 big duds

If the presales signs we're seeing translate to its final weekend figures, perhaps loss of PLF might be overestimated. Sure, it's still hanging on to screens, but it's already shedding some of them, so it won't be as big a shock once Maleficent hits.

As for R rated competition? Zombieland? And then Dark Fate at the end of the month?

 

As I said, I think it's in a very good position, competition-wise. Not PERFECT, but it's hardly Shazam, sandwiched in-between CM and EG.

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, Eric Addams said:

If we're going by what Keyser and Charlie have, losing IMAX isn't hurting Joker that much, and I doubt losing other PLFs next week will hurt it either. And Zombieland doesn't seem like it'll do that much next week (if anything, it might get hurt by Joker at this point), and the next big R-rated release is Terminator which is in about three weeks and Joker will have already made up most of its money.

Exactly it's not gonna hurt it but you aren't gonna see the insane 35% drop for week 3. Just my guess. Either way it's gonna be amazing. That's a lock

[kitik]

13 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

As for R rated competition? Zombieland? And then Dark Fate at the end of the month?

 

Parasite and The Lighthouse might take some of the cine-phile crowd. Possibly Jojo Rabbit too.

 

The arthouse crowd might not be big, but it's a segment that contributes to legs.

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Noon EST. Joker is blowing up. let's start with 19-20mn being safe. At high end, depending on Evenings, may be 22. 

I don't believe you ! It cannot be that high. It is just surreal. Come on man, it is just a R-rated character study movie disguised as a CBM with little to zero action...

[DAJK]

So... is Joker the next American Sniper (box office wise)

[Firepower]

5 minutes ago, kitik said:

Parasite and The Lighthouse might take some of the cine-phile crowd. Possibly Jojo Rabbit too.

 

The arthouse crowd might not be big, but it's a segment that contributes to legs.

No, they only have limited release.

Edited October 11, 2019 by Firepower

[WrathOfHan]

Jexi's floppage is hilarious. I can't spill full details on here, but I witnessed a Lionsgate fudge firsthand last week. They are one of the most desperate studios out there  

 

Edited October 11, 2019 by WrathOfHan

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So... is Joker the next American Sniper (box office wise)

Yup, been making me think of that film since Wednesday. 

 

The comment to mine above about superbowl sunday derailing AS in weekend 3 misses the fact that the film never recovered - unlike the rest of the films. But also speaks to how their is a cap of sorts on the R rated crowd. Really curious to see where Joker ends up since 350m seems like a sort of given barring it falling off the wagon unexpectedly. 

[john2000]

guys is it me or has the comicbook genre grow since 2017, i mean yeah they were big before , but i am the only one who sees that comicbook movie have went to new heights these last 2 years ? overperformance after overperformance after overperformance  any idea why is that ?

Edited October 11, 2019 by john2000

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Jexi's floppage is hilarious. I can't spill full details on here, but I witnessed a Lionsgate fudge firsthand last week. They are one of the most desperate studios out there  

 

Who distributed Belko? That was the worst case of fudging I've experienced firsthand

[DAJK]

Just now, john2000 said:

guys is it me or has the comicbook genre grow since 2017, i mean yeah they were big before , but i am the only one who sees that comicbook movie have went to new heights these last 2 years ? overperformance after overperformance after overperformance  any idea why is that ?

imo it's because there's a new wave of CBM's that are "transcending the genre". 2000s and early 2010s CBMs were very much "comic book movies" but now they're trying out different genres. It's something new for audiences at the moment. But like any trend, it'll slow down eventually, and something new will have to come along, be it another genre, or an adaptation to an existing one. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Who distributed Belko? That was the worst case of fudging I've experienced firsthand

BH Tilt/Universal

[YM!]

36 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Competition that eats all the premium screens and yes rated r competition is coming. Literally nothing this weekend..2 big duds

I mean Joker half lost 3/4 of its PLFs already and I doubt there’s much passion over Zombieland 2

[MrGlass2]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

guys is it me or has the comicbook genre grow since 2017, i mean yeah they were big before , but i am the only one who sees that comicbook movie have went to new heights these last 2 years ? overperformance after overperformance after overperformance  any idea why is that ?

Joker is exploding because people are tired of superhero movies. They now want smart, brilliant R-rated character study dramas dealing with society's problems featuring masterful performances... and Batman's dad.

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Joker is exploding because people are tired of superhero movies. They now want smart, brilliant R-rated character study dramas dealing with society's problems featuring masterful performances... and Batman's dad.

 

 

BRO ENDGAME MADE 2.8 BILLION DOLLARS