Weekend Thread: Weekend Estimates - Jokah 55, Addams 30.3, Gemini 20.5, Abominable 6.2, Downton 4.9 | Parasite generates 125.4K PTA (highest since La La Land)

[cdsacken]

14 minutes ago, john2000 said:

right now i am thinking around 800-850 total

Gimme 750-875. So volatile hard to project longterm. Will shorten it to 50m range after this week. 25m after next

Edited October 11, 2019 by cdsacken

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

I am predicting a 40-50 2nd weekend. Actually, I am leaning towards a 50% or more 2nd weekend drop 

What you want and predictions are two different things.

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

I am predicting a 40-50 2nd weekend. Actually, I am leaning towards a 50% or more 2nd weekend drop 

Alright… why? You wanna give logical explanation, or just incite fan wars?

[reddevil19]

Just now, DAJK said:

Alright… why? You wanna give logical explanation, or just incite fan wars?

Something tells me it's option B here.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Alright… why? You wanna give logical explanation, or just incite fan wars?

The answer is that it's obviously 5:00 somewhere.

[cdsacken]

Lol more than 50%. It's gonna be at like 40+m after Saturday.

Edited October 11, 2019 by cdsacken

[Cap]

35 minutes ago, john2000 said:

one more time, superhero movies are not responsible if people dont go to other movies

 

Quote

"The main change has been in audience," [Paramount's Robert Evans] said, "Today, people go to see a movie; they no longer go to the movies.  We can't depend on habit any more.  We have to make 'I've got to to see that' pictures."

Robert Evans said that in the 1960s.

 

=

 

The explosion of the superhero genre is really no different than the raise and fall of the Western and the Musical.  You could even toss in New Hollywood Cinema (Shout Out to Cannastop and Jason's List, lots of good movies there) or the 90s Independent Film Movement if you want to look at trends.  It comes from a mixture of right film at the right time, Industry apery, audience's ever-changing tastes (and I'd toss in need for escapism).  Like all good genres, it will come to an end.  And something else will take is place.  The beat goes on, as Cher would say.

[ViewerAnon]

13 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

 

Robert Evans said that in the 1960s.

 

=

 

The explosion of the superhero genre is really no different than the raise and fall of the Western and the Musical.  You could even toss in New Hollywood Cinema (Shout Out to Cannastop and Jason's List, lots of good movies there) or the 90s Independent Film Movement if you want to look at trends.  It comes from a mixture of right film at the right time, Industry apery, audience's ever-changing tastes (and I'd toss in need for escapism).  Like all good genres, it will come to an end.  And something else will take is place.  The beat goes on, as Cher would say.

 

I think it's less superhero movies and more IPs: people are reluctant to see movies they aren't already familiar or comfortable with. It just so happens comic books are something a massive amount of people are familiar with, either through reading them or enjoying adaptations growing up.

[dxmatrixdt]

12 Fri + 19 Sat + 11 Sun = 42 / 180 total

[Barnack]

22 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Robert Evans said that in the 1960s.

 

=

 

The explosion of the superhero genre is really no different than the raise and fall of the Western and the Musical

 

That different from what Evans said in the 60s, when television almost destroyed the movie theaters in the 50s, the habbit of going to the movies all the time, every week many time a week, to get news, watch a bunch of movies, etc... went away, to people almost exclusively going to see a movie in particular when they went to theater.

 

Not that a genre/event was necessarily needed.

[filmlover]

I don't think the non-IP/non-nostalgia based movie is as dead in theaters as everyone makes it out to be. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood was literally sold as a DiCaprio/Pitt/Tarantino joint and nothing else and grossed around $140M. Comedies are supposedly going extinct yet Good Boys showed there's still life to them. The Upside made $100M+ and Hustlers is about to hit the mark too. You can't always predict what will connect and what won't until the movie's actually out there sometimes.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:

Joker is exploding because people are tired of superhero movies. They now want smart, brilliant R-rated character study dramas dealing with society's problems featuring masterful performances... and Batman's dad.

FWIW I both realize this is a joke, and found it a funny one.

[Ryan Reynolds]

50m Joker

30m TAF

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/box-office-joker-gemini-addams-1203367531/

Edited October 11, 2019 by Ryan Reynolds

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

50m

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/box-office-joker-gemini-addams-1203367531/

Also says $30M for Addams (terrific), $19M for Gemini (yikes), and $3M for Jexi (lmao).

[wildphantom]

Love it. Variety declare Gemini Man a flop at 4pm EST on opening day. 
That’s where we’re at now. The word is out it’s a flop before anyone has had a chance to make their mind up what movie they’re even seeing tonight. Lol. 

[Valonqar]

Variety is full of shit. They speculate.

[grim22]

Somehow I have a feeling this Friday is being underestimated. That would be a 55% increase from Thursday which makes little to no sense, especially since it isn't summer. Even Downton Abbey, which plays very old in its demo increased 66% 2 weeks ago.

 

Quote

2nd Update: Joker in all of its controversy continues to remain strong, expected to be down -52% in weekend 2 with $45.8M after a Friday of $12.9M, -67% at 4,374 venues. Dark? Who says it’s too dark for business? That’s what the complaint was about Warner Bros.’ Batman V. Superman, which dropped -69% off a B CinemaScore. However, Joker‘s B+ (which some debate is akin to an A-), coupled with solid exits last weekend of 4 stars on PostTrak are the indicator here of the want-to-see for this Todd Phillip-directed movie.

A great opening from MGM/UAR’s The Addams Family with $9M (including $1.25M previews) and a $30M start at 4,007, at the top of industry forecasts. Some even think the animated feature can do more. The pic earned a 69% definite recommend from parents, 58% from kids, with girls outweighing boys last night 57% to 43%, on PostTrak.

it’s looking grim for Paramount/Skydance Media’s Will Smith movie Gemini Man  here in the U.S. and Canada with a $7.3M Friday, including $1.6M previews, and a $19M-$20M forecast in 3rd place at 3,642. That’s with 3D tickets sales and Imax which Joker largely doesn’t have. Joker and Addams Family I hear are sharing PLFs.

Dreamworks/Pearl Studios/Universal’s Abominable takes 4th with $1.8M in weekend 3 at 3,496 theaters for a $7.7M 3-day, for a total of $49.5M.

Focus Features’ Downton Abbey is seeing $1.3M today and $4.4M in weekend 4, -45% for a total of $82.1M.

CBS Films’ R-rated, man-in-love-with-his-phone comedy Jexi, dying with $3M-$3.3M for the weekend after $1.25M today.

 

[wildphantom]

Joker is certainly a water-cooler, be part of the conversation movie.  But I think people by and large just know they must see this Phoenix performance. It is remarkable. Like they did with Rami Malek as Mercury last fall. 

 

Regardless of what you think of the movie, Phoenix is incredible in it.  Has to be seen to be believed kind of performance. 

[Firepower]

I suppose Deadline's number was just a pure guess and not based on the actual data.

[Legion Again]

That Joker number is a joke. TAF, GM, Abom, DA, Jexi figures all would be great for my Survivor though.