Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[TMP]

27 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Next objectives for DC:

• Decent reception for BoP, regardless of box office (similar to Shazam)
• WW84 increase internationally, to challenge the billion
• Black Panther numbers for The Batman

 

 

What if Watchmen gets Emmy love? 

[DAJK]

I gotta say what with all these 2014 sequels underperforming, 2014 May have been a down year at the box office, but it was a fantastic year for blockbusters quality wise. LEGO movie surprised everyone. Winter Soldier was better than anyone could have predicted. Then we had that amazing month-long streak in May-June with DOFP, Edge of Tomorrow, TFIOS, Dragon 2, and 22 Jump street all pretty much one after the other. Then DawnApes was even better than the first. Then guardians became a cultural phenomenon.

 

great, great year

[Jake Gittes]

I get that UA/MGM owes the Bond franchise a lot but this is getting out of hand

 

The Hustle

May 10–12

3

$13,007,709

-

3,007

-

$4,326

$13,007,709

1

 

Child's Play

Jun 21–23	2	$14,094,594	-	3,007	-	$4,687	$14,094,594	1
Jun 28–30	8	$4,429,543	-68.6%	3,007	-	$1,473	$23,557,942	2

 

The Addams Family

Oct 11–13	2	$30,300,007	-	4,007	-	$7,562	$30,300,007	1
Oct 18–20	4	$16,057,007 (Estimate)	-47.0%	4,102	+95	$3,914	$56,816,034 (Estimate)	2

[Johnny Tran]

If Joker gets close to a billion will WB try to push it over or nah? 

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I get that UA/MGM owes the Bond franchise a lot but this is getting out of hand

 

The Hustle

May 10–12

3

$13,007,709

-

3,007

-

$4,326

$13,007,709

1

 

Child's Play

Jun 21–23	2	$14,094,594	-	3,007	-	$4,687	$14,094,594	1
Jun 28–30	8	$4,429,543	-68.6%	3,007	-	$1,473	$23,557,942	2

 

The Addams Family

Oct 11–13	2	$30,300,007	-	4,007	-	$7,562	$30,300,007	1
Oct 18–20	4	$16,057,007 (Estimate)	-47.0%	4,102	+95	$3,914	$56,816,034 (Estimate)	2

Looking forward to No Time to Die's global gross of $1,007,007,007.

[AndyK]

Saw Gemini Man last night. 

 

Quite enjoyed it, critics got it wrong again.

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, AndyK said:

Saw Gemini Man last night. 

 

Quite enjoyed it, critics got it wrong again.

Yep. They were far too kind.

[a2k]

34 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

If Joker gets close to a billion will WB try to push it over or nah? 

hopefully awards season buzz adds a few. 320 dom (2.5x more this weekend) and 646 os (2x more this weekend) takes it to 966. if it does closer to 340 dom and does a bit better than conservative 2x more this weekend, 1b is realistic.

[reddevil19]

53 minutes ago, TMP said:

What if Watchmen gets Emmy love? 

It probably will get SOME form of award recognition, though HBO is skewing heavy towards genre productions in this post-GOT world, so that, His Dark Materials and WW might be drawing support from one another. Still, that's TV.

53 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Batman ain’t doing BP numbers I can guarantee. Joker #s IMO

I didn't say it will necessarily do it, but it must be seen as an objective at WB/DC and, if it's not, then that's just bad management. They're building a streak, with critics, audiences and box office, so if they're not aiming for those kinds of numbers, they've not learned anything in recent years. 

 

After AQM's performance, and now Joker, I think the potential is being proven. If WW84 increases to 550-600 internationally, I don't see why DC wouldn't ideally be looking at The Batman as a safe enough option for a Chinese run over 100-150 million, with a mature enough treatment of the character to turn out support in Europe again, and recreate TDKR-like numbers in North America (I think there is clearly excitement for this new version of the character, and a good marketing campaign, with great trailers could certainly build on that). Inflation, more premium screens - again, not saying it will necessarily happen, or that it's even likely, but a chance exists, and it's a worthy objective for their biggest solo character, even accounting for the bruising he's taken recently in his cinematic outings. 

 

Adding to this, there is a bit of a lull in the MCU schedule - you obviously still have loads of stuff, but none of the big hitters have movies coming out before The Batman, so DC could, in theory, slide in there with these projects as a very reliable choice for comic book movie viewers, and building from movie to movie...

[boxofficeth]

52 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I get that UA/MGM owes the Bond franchise a lot but this is getting out of hand

 

The Hustle

May 10–12

3

$13,007,709

-

3,007

-

$4,326

$13,007,709

1

 

Child's Play

Jun 21–23	2	$14,094,594	-	3,007	-	$4,687	$14,094,594	1
Jun 28–30	8	$4,429,543	-68.6%	3,007	-	$1,473	$23,557,942	2

 

The Addams Family

Oct 11–13	2	$30,300,007	-	4,007	-	$7,562	$30,300,007	1
Oct 18–20	4	$16,057,007 (Estimate)	-47.0%	4,102	+95	$3,914	$56,816,034 (Estimate)	2

No Time to Die to open at 5,007 theaters?

[That One Girl]

.

Edited February 28, 2022 by That One Guy

[boxofficeth]

2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Parasite's success is great news for the sci fi genre.

Hope it allows more sci fi films like Parasite to get greenlit.

I would put Parasite as a dramedy. But yes, its success is good news for the genre, no matter which genre the film belongs in. I hope it breaks 10M and become a serious awards contender.

[Jiffy]

Does Parasite have the biggest 2nd weekend PTA for a foreign film?

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

What if Watchmen gets Emmy love? 

It won't. The Leftovers won nothing, and superhero shows have a very poor record at the Emmys except the first season of Heroes (won 0 but nominated for 8).

[Alli]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

 can we please stop with the "critics were wrong!" bullshit that happens anytime someone likes a movie that got mostly negative reviews?

Why should we stop calling out the critics? Sometimes they are simply wrong....on both directions. So many crap movies that critics hyped up lately.

 

Especially since a RT critic can be basically everybody these days

[Firepower]

11 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

If WW84 increases to 550-600 internationally

Won't happen (unless China does 300 mln), maybe slight increase from WW1 international numbers at best. Domestically it'll probably have a slight drop (better OW, but worse legs)

[That One Girl]

.

Edited February 28, 2022 by That One Guy

[Alli]

WW1984 will increase dom and OS.  Bookmark it!   #1 movie of next year!

[cdsacken]

So I found my dream house. Of course it's in one of the most competitive markets in the USA. Wish me luck. I've literally never been nervous about houses I am now

[lorddemaxus]

17 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

After AQM's performance, and now Joker, I think the potential is being proven. If WW84 increases to 550-600 internationally, I don't see why DC wouldn't ideally be looking at The Batman as a safe enough option for a Chinese run over 100-150 million

I think Batman gonna make 250 mil in China. The Chinese have been craving for another film set in Gotham since the last two didn't release there (both of which seem to have pretty good WoM there from people who probably torrented them). I think if Joker released in China, it would have opened to around Aquaman numbers there and finished with around 200 mil looking at the high openings everywhere in the world.