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Eric the Fall Guy

FROZEN II WEEKEND THREAD | 130.26M OW | BLACK FRIDAY WEEK SALE: Gold Accounts 25% OFF | I like warm hugs and I cannot lie | No Knives Out Spoilers :)

By Eric the Fall Guy, in Numbers and Data

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted

I posted in tracking thread but it makes better sense here.

 

F2 OD update

 

MTC1 - overall 5981 shows 253639/1105840 3396129.46 2798973.30 post 6PM 2708 shows 143542/510745 2066998.28 1656127.20 pre noon 977 shows 25665/167059 201026.47 200143.50 1027AM
MTC2 - overall 6541 shows 260115/1002597 2625808.00 post 6PM 2363 shows 121875/368539 1441482.00  pre noon 1418 shows 31708/214785 237612.00 1019AM

 

so MTC2 seem to have slightly better run rate than MTC1 and did better with shows before noon. Not sure where it will end up but compared to previews 1m tickets would mean 35m friday. So for 42m it needs to sell 1.2m tickets. That will need crazy acceleration. let us wait and watch. for now my instinct says Charlie is overestimating the friday.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted

Frozen merch is very popular like MCU Merch, Cars Merch, Minions Merch etc. I see them everywhere. But as a halloween costume I did not see a Anna/Elsa in past couple of years. My elder daughter wanted to be a witch while younger one wanted to be a PIG(She loves 3 little pigs story). So priorities change. Even in the halloween parties I went to I saw more recent SH characters than princess. So Wonder Woman, Captain America etc.

 

But not all of that translates to huge BO. otherwise Cars would have never gone down.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I posted in tracking thread but it makes better sense here.

 

F2 OD update

 

MTC1 - overall 5981 shows 253639/1105840 3396129.46 2798973.30 post 6PM 2708 shows 143542/510745 2066998.28 1656127.20 pre noon 977 shows 25665/167059 201026.47 200143.50 1027AM
MTC2 - overall 6541 shows 260115/1002597 2625808.00 post 6PM 2363 shows 121875/368539 1441482.00  pre noon 1418 shows 31708/214785 237612.00 1019AM

 

so MTC2 seem to have slightly better run rate than MTC1 and did better with shows before noon. Not sure where it will end up but compared to previews 1m tickets would mean 35m friday. So for 42m it needs to sell 1.2m tickets. That will need crazy acceleration. let us wait and watch. for now my instinct says Charlie is overestimating the friday.

I agree...I think TLK multi is the max number b/c TLK was both a summer weekday (so the matinees could fill with kids) and it had acres of unused Friday seats around b/c it was so hugely booked on screens (unlike F2, which is pretty packed at prime likely "gonna be seen" times with no way to expand thanks to the Knives Out sneaks)...

 

That was my point earlier, but it's nice to see a mini-god echo it:)...

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

BOPro forecasting 40M opening weekend for Dolittle, 120-170 domestic.

 

That's like... 3x what I was expecting lmao

Okay so I wasn’t the only one shocked at those numbers lol I thought they’d made a typo...

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
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I would say F2 OD and saturday will be very PS heavy but starting sunday walkin's will play a bigger role.

 

PS for saturday is really strong with 3rd of tickets for shows before Noon. So that will bring down average ticket prices further.

 

MTC1- overall 6660 shows 277247/1188104 3107802.67 2717048.47 pre noon 1652 shows 96764/253825 648794.51 647288.34 post 6PM 2708 shows 70226/510411 1002016.62 823550.17 +50363 
MTC2 - overall 6506 shows 251331/994640 2429712.00 pre noon 1458 shows 77471/217092 617921.00 post 6PM 2310 shows 45900/362397 549111.00 +44423

 

If you assume 50% of tickets tomorrow would be for kids then PS across 2 MTC at  ~ 5.3m. Probably will shoot up by another million or so by the time shows start. so 20m national PS start tomorrow.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted

If FROZEN2 behaves like MAL2 exactly, including preview to OD multiplier

 

 

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
Oct 18, 2019 1 $12,551,906   3,790 $3,312   $12,551,906 1
Oct 19, 2019 1 $14,213,517 +13% 3,790 $3,750   $26,765,423 2
Oct 20, 2019 1 $10,183,290 -28% 3,790 $2,687   $36,948,713 3

 

46.41 (5.46x previews : 8.5 + 37.91)

52.55 (+38.6% from true Fri / +13%)

37.65 (-28%)

= 136.61 (16.07x)

 

 

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xiazhi Sleeper Hit

xiazhi

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Wow! The box office landscape has changed so much since the last decade. 👩🏻‍💼

 

Before 2010, we had only 3 movies over $500M+ DOM, now there’s way more movies over $500M now than it was before.

only because this decade sees the rise of disney

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would say F2 OD and saturday will be very PS heavy but starting sunday walkin's will play a bigger role.

 

PS for saturday is really strong with 3rd of tickets for shows before Noon. So that will bring down average ticket prices further.

 

MTC1- overall 6660 shows 277247/1188104 3107802.67 2717048.47 pre noon 1652 shows 96764/253825 648794.51 647288.34 post 6PM 2708 shows 70226/510411 1002016.62 823550.17 +50363 
MTC2 - overall 6506 shows 251331/994640 2429712.00 pre noon 1458 shows 77471/217092 617921.00 post 6PM 2310 shows 45900/362397 549111.00 +44423

 

If you assume 50% of tickets tomorrow would be for kids then PS across 2 MTC at  ~ 5.3m. Probably will shoot up by another million or so by the time shows start. so 20m national PS start tomorrow.

Perhaps even higher. Yesterday Friday added another 100k between your update at this time and your update at the time shows started. Sat is running 1.5-2x of that pace already so I think it can go for another 150k tickets, ~6.8 million. But anyway thank you for all the numbers, it has been great to have regular PS updates and seeing the trend throughout the day.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, a2k said:

If FROZEN2 behaves like MAL2 exactly, including preview to OD multiplier

 

 

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
Oct 18, 2019 1 $12,551,906   3,790 $3,312   $12,551,906 1
Oct 19, 2019 1 $14,213,517 +13% 3,790 $3,750   $26,765,423 2
Oct 20, 2019 1 $10,183,290 -28% 3,790 $2,687   $36,948,713 3

 

46.41 (5.46x previews : 8.5 + 37.91)

52.55 (+38.6% from true Fri / +13%)

37.65 (-28%)

= 136.61 (16.07x)

 

 

I could see that happening. Only difference is Mal 2 was all walkin driven while F2 will be PS driven.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Menor said:

Perhaps even higher. Yesterday Friday added another 100k between your update at this time and your update at the time shows started. Sat is running 1.5-2x of that pace already so I think it can go for another 150k tickets, ~6.8 million. But anyway thank you for all the numbers, it has been great to have regular PS updates and seeing the trend throughout the day.

thank you and you are right on the projections. it should do better than yesterday. Another 150K tickets should happen. May be 22m national PS.

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