THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[pepsa]

Honesly now that I think about it, it's insane that people where pretty calm when TLJ dropped $750m WW from TFA compared to the massive meltdown when Age of Ultron dropped $100m WW.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Honesly now that I think about it, it's insane that people where pretty calm when TLJ dropped $750m WW from TFA compared to the massive meltdown when Age of Ultron dropped $100m WW.

 

Probably because people are used to it with Star Wars. ESB and AOTC had massive drops from the first movie of each trilogy. 

[grey ghost]

Disney getting the top 6 is a hell of a victory lap.

 

Kinda scary to consider their output wasn't even consistently great. 

 

Next year it looks like things will go back to normal with Universal and Warner Bros being in a three way battle with Disney.

 

Wonder Woman and Minions could top an admittedly anemic summer.

Edited December 19, 2019 by grey ghost

[Cmasterclay]

Nothing hitting 350m domestic next year (don't really care about overseas gross for movies, but Mulan feels like an almost too obvious winner there). Really, really, really looking bad. 2021 looks huge, though, so that's something. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[XXR vs XXR]

I will finalize my tracking numbers for previews around 4pm CST today, but as of right now I'm predicting $35m in previews and an OW in the $180-190m range for TROS. 

 

As for Cats, maybe $13-16m.

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Nothing hitting 350m domestic next year

One of the Marvels will do it

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

One of the Marvels will do it

Maybe The Eternals, which I don't know jack shit about. Don't see it for Black Widow at all - think that does like 240m, a lil higher than Ant Man 2 type numbers. I would agree Eternals seemingly has the highest ceiling of any 2020 movie, assuming WW84 is dropping from the original.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Nothing hitting 350m domestic next year (don't really care about overseas gross for movies, but Mulan feels like an almost too obvious winner there). Really, really, really looking bad. 2021 looks huge, though, so that's something. 

This is the most American thing ever 'I don't care about the rest of the world' 😛

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

One of the Marvels will do it

Wonder Woman could do it. Although not if Deadpool 2, Frozen 2 and Jumanji 3 are anything to go by. 
 

Well received original that started off at a huge level. Not much room to grow. 

[Hatebox]

edit - never mind

Edited December 19, 2019 by Hatebox

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Definitely feels like a 2014-esque year next year. But that does leave room for a few breakouts. Could be less boom and bust and more things doing just well.

[reddevil19]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Wonder Woman could do it. Although not if Deadpool 2, Frozen 2 and Jumanji 3 are anything to go by. 
 

Well received original that started off at a huge level. Not much room to grow. 

A DP-DP2 drop would still mean WW84 is likely to go past 350. Frozen 2 has Christmas ahead of it to pass the original. Jumanji 3 out-opened the last one, at least, despite very low expectations, so jury's still out on that...

Doesn't need to grow to still go past 350.

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

This is the most American thing ever 'I don't care about the rest of the world' 😛

It's not a xenophobic thing or anything. I just look at box office from a cultural sociology standpoint and I do not understand the cultural trends of other countries enough to comment on why certain movies gross X amount in X country. Like, I couldn't tell you why Star Wars has always been comparatively small overseas - that doesn't mean overseas gross isn't great to have, it just means I can't really analyze things. Raw numbers don't really mean anything to me without analysis.

[FilmBuff]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Nothing hitting 350m domestic next year (don't really care about overseas gross for movies, but Mulan feels like an almost too obvious winner there). Really, really, really looking bad. 2021 looks huge, though, so that's something. 

Yeah not a lot of options next year, but I think venom 2, black widow, or WW1984 could do it.

[wildphantom]

I just met a mate and told her everything that happened in the movie. She’s never seen a SW movie, but enjoys hearing the story. 
Gotta say, as conflicted as I am about the film, it does sound great when you recount its events to somebody. 
 

Looking forward to lots of you guys reacting tonight. 

[GR19]

40 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Yes Disney fucked up the sequel trilogy, but is it any worse than the prequel trilogy?.

It is to early to tell, but I see one area that might be a lot worse than the prequel trilogy - namely damaging the original trilogy. The prequels got hammered for a lot of stuff, but most stuff related to the OT was received well, e. g. Palpatine's rise to power, Obi-Wan. Perhaps even more importantly, Luke, Leia and Han were not affected at all. OTOH, the sequel might have caused a lot of damage by souring people on key parts of the OT - Han/Leia break up, Luke becomes a hobo, the Empire is not really defeated etc.

I don't see this as a given - 5-10 years from now there might be as much nostalgia for SW as before TFA, but I think there is at least the risk of permanent damage to the core of the brand.

[grey ghost]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Wonder Woman could do it. Although not if Deadpool 2, Frozen 2 and Jumanji 3 are anything to go by. 
 

Well received original that started off at a huge level. Not much room to grow. 

Even Spider-man 2 dropped and that was a critical hit.

 

I'd be shocked if WW84 increased.

 

Nothing to me indicates it will. Seems pretty routine based on the trailer.

[LeoC]

14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Maybe The Eternals, which I don't know jack shit about. Don't see it for Black Widow at all - think that does like 240m, a lil higher than Ant Man 2 type numbers. I would agree Eternals seemingly has the highest ceiling of any 2020 movie, assuming WW84 is dropping from the original.

WW84 will cross 350m. It’s almost a lock. BW is not an ant man level of SH. I mean, take a look at the trailer views. It will be close to 300m, if not over. Eternals is a wildcard. I hope it will surprise me (in a good way) like GotG did back in 2014.

 

Internationally, Minions, Mulan, and FF9 are what we should look out for. Mulan is a wildcard internationally. If reception in Asian markets, particularly in China, is good, it can easily become the highest grossing movie worldwide for next year.

[Eric Furiosa]

Like obviously Disney's not gonna be as big as they were this year, but their crop still looks good. I think doubting Marvel is kind of a fool's errand, so I'd be very surprised if Black Widow goes below 300M, and #InZhaoITrust for The Eternals. Mulan's getting dinged by the Hong Kong stuff, but it's still looking to be huge. Their animated stuff is so far landing in their marketing IMO. It'll at least be nice to see some original stuff land in the top 10 this year. Really, if everything goes right, I can see Soul do something like 400M.

 

Wonder Woman will be huge too. Wouldn't surprise me if it gets to like 450M or something. Top Gun 2 will get seen by every dad on the planet. It also helps that it's not like Terminator or Charlie's Angels where a bunch of crap movies or shows damaged the property. Trolls 2 should also see a decent increase (I'm telling you, kids are crazy for those little guys). The No Time to Die trailer was kinda lame, but it can probably coast on being Craig's swan song I guess. In the Heights and West Side Story should both play well with their demos and keep the musical success train going. Fast 9 and Venom 2 will drop, but should still do okay. Tenet is probably going to be in the vicinity of 200M. And I guess Sopranos nostalgia will be a thing. I'm only optimistic for Dune because my baby's in it, but I can see it come out of nowhere and surprise people.

 

Otherwise...yeah, 2020 is going to be a yuck year.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, GR19 said:

It is to early to tell, but I see one area that might be a lot worse than the prequel trilogy - namely damaging the original trilogy. The prequels got hammered for a lot of stuff, but most stuff related to the OT was received well, e. g. Palpatine's rise to power, Obi-Wan. Perhaps even more importantly, Luke, Leia and Han were not affected at all. OTOH, the sequel might have caused a lot of damage by souring people on key parts of the OT - Han/Leia break up, Luke becomes a hobo, the Empire is not really defeated etc.

I don't see this as a given - 5-10 years from now there might be as much nostalgia for SW as before TFA, but I think there is at least the risk of permanent damage to the core of the brand.

 

Vader has sure taken a beating in the last 20 years. The prequels had poor casting, poor dialogue, and poor characterization for Anakin. Now we have the retcon with Palpatine, which basically means Vader's fate as the Chosen One is wiped out. Thank goodness Rogue One exists. It's the one time they handled Vader correctly in the last 20 years.