THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[stuart360]

9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

8 1/2 years

 

3 1/2 for AEG over TFA (AIW did it in 2 1/2 un-adjusted)

 

Not really a pattern.   Looking at the list all you need is a mega franchise or IP  peaking.

 

If Avatar  2, 3 or 4 hit big and keep opening bigger and bigger maybe A5 if it's a conclusion will it in whatever year it comes out.

 

Or it could be Avengers 7 or 8 - Secret Wars with the return of a few original Avengers.

 

Or an unknown property or film series that explodes and it's sequels just keep getting bigger.  Studios are staking out dates so far in advance though it's hard to have a surprise and I don't see a potential new mega franchise in the near future..

AVATAR 2 is not a nerdy/geeky 'must see opening night' style of film like a superhero or Harry Potter film, or even a Star Wars. Avatar 2 might not even hit 200m opening weekend, its more about its legs than opening weekend imo.

Edited December 20, 2019 by stuart360

[The Panda]

I’ll just take a wild bet and say Matt Reeve’s sequel to The Batman that brings in Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker and Harley Quinn breaks the OW record!

[JB33]

This is it. This is my show. Here goes nothing!

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, The Panda said:

I’ll just take a wild bet and say Matt Reeve’s sequel to The Batman that brings in Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker and Harley Quinn breaks the OW record!

If Nolans Batman film couldnt get within 200mil of Endgames opening, i cant see how any other Batman film could, even with a few years of inflation.

[Krissykins]

Does anyone else notice foreign trailers on the trending page on YouTube always update their thumbnails to include their claimed view count? 😂

 

Who cares

[The Futurist]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It's not HATED by critics. Those are called mixed reviews. MIXED. Why do people act like there is no difference between CATS reviews and TROS when there clearly is. Why do people act like a mixed critical reception doesn't exist? It does exist, it happens all the time. The internet's black and white views on critical reception is bizarre.

Because everybody reads the RT socre as a grade, which it isn't.

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

AVATAR 2 is not a nerdy/geeky 'must see opening night' style of film like a superhero or Harry Potter film, or even a Star Wars. Avatar 2 might not even hit 200m opening weekend, its more about its legs than opening weekend imo.

That's why I didn't say Avatar 2 might - but that if the series grew in a  certain way Avatar FIVE might

 

 

[IcaroRibeiro]

6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

AVATAR 2 is not a nerdy/geeky 'must see opening night' style of film like a superhero or Harry Potter film, or even a Star Wars. Avatar 2 might not even hit 200m opening weekend, its more about its legs than opening weekend imo.

I agree about A2. But who knows how this franchise will develop ? It may lack a powerful fandom now, but Jurassic World didn't have a rabbit dedicated fanbase and broke the all time record nevertheless

 

[XXR vs XXR]

In the next decade I think the most likely type of film to beat Endgame's number would be as follows:

 

 

1) The Endgame equivalent in the next MCU saga.

2) Harry Potter true sequel with OG cast
3) Star Wars - Episode 10

4) Avatar sequel (maybe the finale if the first 3 are big?)

5) DC equivalent of Endgame if they can ever get their shit together 

6) Massively cultural ,known IP equivalent (BP on steroids?)

7) Currently unknown IP 

Edited December 20, 2019 by VenomXXR

[ZeeSoh]

Harry Potter 9 with older cast, Batman with Joker, etc won't even sniff 300m let alone get to 360m. 

Star Wars is going in the opposite direction of where it should be going. Instead of increasing, it has decreased with each entry. If the end to the beloved 40 year old saga couldn't cross 250m, I doubt any new Star Wars movie with a new cast and new story line will be able to do it. 

 

Avatar doesn't have the big rabid fan base nor the requirement to see it as soon as possible to pull those kind of numbers. Even Marvel will need multiple phases of build up towards another Endgame like finale, building towards a big bad like Thanos and bringing together the new set of heroes, Fantastic 4 and X-men, to beat Endgames record. 

[ZackM]

15 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It's not HATED by critics. Those are called mixed reviews. MIXED. Why do people act like there is no difference between CATS reviews and TROS when there clearly is. Why do people act like a mixed critical reception doesn't exist? It does exist, it happens all the time. The internet's black and white views on critical reception is bizarre.

The Tomato/Splat binary is so terrible.  Would it be so hard to be a little creative with how different percentages are presented?

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

I agree about A2. But who knows how this franchise will develop ? It may lack a powerful fandom now, but Jurassic World didn't have a rabbit dedicated fanbase and broke the all time record nevertheless

 

Good point about Jurassic World, no one really saw that opening coming. I still think AVATAR 2 will be more about its legs than openng weekend though.

[IcaroRibeiro]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

In the next decade I think the most likely type of film to beat Endgame's number would be as follows:

 

6) Massively cultural ,known IP equivalent (BP on steroids?)

Dune final movie 😎

 

[misafeco]

26 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Nah, again the circumstances of Endgame s OW are so, so unique.

The insane rush factor was due to the most incredible cliffhanger ever and people didn't want to get spoiled because of our modern uber connected world.

Inflation will beat Endgame s OW, nothing else.

Watching it during the first week didn't prevent me to get spoiled on TS's death like 1 month before release date. Some asshole spammed it over one of the most popular local FB group's posts.

[doublejack]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

AVATAR 2 is not a nerdy/geeky 'must see opening night' style of film like a superhero or Harry Potter film, or even a Star Wars. Avatar 2 might not even hit 200m opening weekend, its more about its legs than opening weekend imo.

While it may not seem like it, a decade has now passed since Avatar. Times have changed. I expect when Avatar 2 does hit theaters it will be way, way more front loaded than the first. If you are expecting something crazy like a 5x multi, I'll tell you right now it is extremely unlikely to happen. All movies are more front loaded, and Avatar 2 is also likely to experience more front load pressure due to the nostalgia factor.

 

I'm not going to throw out any numbers, there's no trailer or anything to go on to make a judgement about interest levels or quality, but even with that I expect EG's record is safe. I also think TFA's DOM record will be safe, but that's just based on my suspicion that Avatar 2 won't live up to lofty expectations. I'm of the view that Avatar 1 was a gimmick that fully capitalized on the 3D craze of the day, and it not actually a good film. So I see way more downside in current conditions for a movie of that nature. I fully accept that my view on that is not widely shared.

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, The Panda said:

I’ll just take a wild bet and say Matt Reeve’s sequel to The Batman that brings in Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker and Harley Quinn breaks the OW record!

The Panda is confirmed to be an excel alt

[Rthmessiah]

TROS I had similar to DL  Fri 89-92m, see how eve goes.

[Krissykins]

Just now, RthRise said:

TROS I had similar to DL  Fri 89-92m, see how eve goes.

Rth is here!! 
 

Anything on Cats by any chance? 

[ZeeSoh]

Just finished my Star Wars marathon with TLJ. Going to see TROS in about 5 hours.

 

TLJ is such a good movie. It's not without its problems of course. It has less action imo, that whole casino side plot is unneeded, it gives disappointing answers to some very anticipated questions and doesn't really set up much for the next movie. 

But despite this, to me it feels the closest to the OT trilogy of all PT/ST movies. It is better than TFA, which is entertaining but rehash of ANH.

[MikeQ]

30 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Unless every cinema is 100% packed for all 4 days, does that even count really?. I mean its simply a case of people going on Thursday instead of Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. If Thursday showings didnt exist, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday numbers would probably be slightly higher.

I'm not sure that if Thursday previews didn't exist, that all of the gross would simply transfer to Fri-Sat-Sun, particularly as previews grow in size and start earlier (at 4:00 or 5:00pm sometimes now). So, I'm not sure that you could take Endgame's massive $60M previews, or The Force Awakens $57M in previews, and add it all to Fri-Sat-Sun, if Thursday previews didn't exist. At this level, capacity is often being filled, but I don't believe that cinemas need to be literally 100% packed either, and that other factors (quality of showtime, seats, format, etc) will play a role. I would say $60M worth of previews relieves some of the high demand on the weekend so more general audiences can attend on the weekend (as opposed to during the week, say). We've seen some of these high performing films have really strong first Mondays/Tuesdays as well following the weekend, which I think suggests some overspill. But this is all just my impression.  

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited December 20, 2019 by MikeQ