Jump to content

Eric Duncan

THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

By Eric Duncan, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by Water Bottle,

WE’RE HAVING A SALE   50% off one month of Gold 50% off one month of Premium 20% off one year of Gold 20% off one year of Premium
Recommended by Water Bottle
  • Thanks
  • Like

5 reactions

Go to this post
VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

Folks who paid to watch the “inferior version”

Reminds me of when Sex and The City was released. 

There were some unfinished copies that circulated. I was lucky enough to see one of those copies. There were certain parts of the film that weren't fully edited, you could see boom mikes, etc. There were a few articles written about it at the time, and even blogger Perez Hilton commented after seeing a show with one of the unfinished copies.. but nothing came of it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Frozen 2 is having very weak increase on Friday compared to Jumanji. 

It had a very strong Thursday compared to Jumanji, but if it could move to like 3.25 or 3.3 that would be nifty.

Edited by Arendelle Legion
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites


KP1025 Box Office Gold

KP1025

Posted
Posted

Frozen 2's more muted Friday jump makes sense considering it's more kid-skewing and benefited from the increasing number of schools off this week (hence Thursday being up 8% over last week). With $3.2 million Friday, that's still only about a 26% drop from last Friday. Compared to Jumanji 3's $6.7 million Friday being down 55% from last Friday excluding previews. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I hope TROS surprises with 65m Saturday that would be fantastic and it's not unrealistic also. 

65m Saturday + 55m Sunday and opening weekend goes above 200m.😁

That's...not happening. Unless Star Wars randomly started behaving like Marvel.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


MagnarTheGreat Indie Sensation

MagnarTheGreat

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

SW9 50.5-51

J2 6.7

F2 3.2

Movie: (Thursday Preview) Thursday to Day 1 multiplier (Thursday to First Weekend multiplier) [First Weekend Total]
TFA: ($57M) 2.09 (4.35) [$248M]
TLJ: ($45M) 2.33 (4.89) [$220M]
TROS: ($40M) 2.28 (TBD) [TBD]

 

I used $91M for TROS's Friday from Jedi Jat's highest number

Edited by MagnarTheGreat
Link to comment
Share on other sites


narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

Posted
Posted

The increase for Frozen is normal, while Jumanji is actually higher than jt should theoretically be. Gotta remember that not only did Frozen have a weird increase on Thursday  - relatively to the rest of the market - but it also lost a ton of shows today which Jumanji wouldnt not have. 

Its still going to have an amazing weekend considering a 180m+ film is opening and a bomb is also taking up a lot of screen space. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Adm56 Sleeper Hit

Adm56

Posted
Posted

Saw it Thursday night was bored throughout. 

 

One thing that jumped out to me was how tight the framing was in the space battle sequences. Kept making me think it was being displayed in the wrong aspect ratio. I thought Rogue One did a better job of making the battles make sense. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted

The new BOM makes navigating and crunching box office statistics so painful - I've barely visited their site since they "updated" (i.e. ruined) it in October. But I've finally updated some of my stats.

 

When it comes to share of opening day and opening weekend from previews for The Rise of Skywalker, if Charlie's 50.5-51M proves accurate (going with the lower end), then TROS' share of opening day from previews is 44.2% (compared to 47.9% for TFA and 43.0% for TLJ). So, it is slightly more preview heavy than TLJ (at least for opening day).

 

If TROS were have the same share of opening weekend from previews as TLJ, it will hit 195M for the weekend. Again, previews look to be of a somewhat higher share of opening day. If we use 50.5M as TROS' True Friday, and it follows the same Saturday increase as TLJ (from True Friday) and same Sunday decrease, it will hit 188M for the weekend. Given that next week is full force when it comes to the holidays, I could see a better Sunday drop than TLJ (which had a worse calendar configuration in terms of proximity to the holidays). So ~190M for the weekend looks reasonable to me.

 

All of this will depend, of course, on what its actual Friday gross ends up being, and how strongly it plays over Saturday and Sunday. But TFA did drop better on the Sunday (-11.3% compared to 19.8% for TLJ), and that could be partly because it also had a more favourable calendar configuration (or maybe it was just because of high demand). Or, alternatively, how quickly does WOM kick in these days? TROS could fair better than TLJ in the WOM department.

 

My updated lists (in spoiler tags):

 

Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time

 

Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day

  1. Spoiler

     

    1. Avengers: Endgame — 60 million (38.1%) 
    2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57 million (47.9%)
    3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45 million (43.0%)
    4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%)
    5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — 40 million (TBD%)
    6. Avengers: Infinity War — 39 million (36.7%)
    7. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%)
    8. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%)
    9. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%)
    10. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%)
    11. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%)
    12. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%)
    13. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%)
    14. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%)
    15. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%)
    16. Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%)
    17. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%)
    18. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (38.9%)
    19. The Lion King (2019) — 23 million (29.5%)
    20. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince — 22.8 million (39.2%)
    21. Captain Marvel — 20.7 million (33.5%)
    22. Suicide Squad — 20.5 million (31.6%)
    23. The Hunger Games — 19.735 million (29.3%)
    24. Marvel's The Avengers — 18.7 million (23.1%)
    25. Deadpool 2 — 18.6 million (35.1%)
    26. Incredibles 2 — 18.5 million (25.9%)
    27. The Dark Knight — 18.5 million (27.5%)
    28. Jurassic World — 18.5 million (22.6%)
    29. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 17 million (30.2%)
    30. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 — 17 million (30.8%)
    31. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith — 16.9 million (33.8%)
    32. Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen — 16.8 million (27.1%)
    33. Beauty and the Beast — 16.3 million (25.5%)
    34. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 — 16 million (35.1%)
    35. Furious 7 — 15.8 million (23.4%)
    36. Iron Man 3 — 15.6 million (22.7%)
    37. Spider-Man: Homecoming — 15.4 million (30.5%)
    38. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 15.3 million (26.1%)
    39. Thor: Ragnarok — 14.5 million (31.0%)
    40. Solo: A Star Wars Story — 14.1 million (39.9%)
    41. Transformers: Dark of the Moon — 13.5 million (35.8%)
    42. It — 13.5 million (26.8%)
    43. Joker  — 13.3 million (33.8%)
    44. The Hobbit: Un Unexpected Journey  — 13 million (35.0%)
    45. Deadpool  — 12.7 million (26.8%)
    46. Toy Story 4  — 12 million (25.3%)
    47. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix — 12 million (27.1%)
    48. Ant-Man and the Wasp — 11.5 million (34.1%)

     

 

Top Opening Weekends of All-Time & Share from Previews

 

Rank / Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights

  1. Spoiler

     

    1. Avengers: Endgame — 357.1 million (16.8%)
    2. Avengers: Infinity War — 257.7 million (15.1%)
    3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 248.0 million (23.0%)
    4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 220.0 million (20.5%)
    5. Jurassic World — 208.8 million (8.9%) 
    6. Marvel’s The Avengers — 207.4 million (9.0%)
    7. Black Panther — 202.0 million (12.5%)
    8. The Lion King — 191.8 million (12.0%)
    9. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 191.3 million (14.4%)
    10. Incredibles 2 — 180.5 million (10.1%)
    11. Captain America: Civil War — 179.1 million (14.0%)
    12. Beauty and the Beast — 174.8 million (9.3%)
    13. Iron Man 3 — 174.1 million (9.0%)
    14. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 169.2 million (25.7%)
    15. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 166.0 million (16.7%)
    16. The Dark Knight Rises — 160.9 million (19.0%)
    17. The Dark Knight — 158.4 million (11.7%)
    18. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 158.1 million (16.0%)
    19. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 155.1 million (18.7%)
    20. Captain Marvel — 153.4 million (13.5%)
    21. The Hunger Games — 152.5 million (12.9%)
    22. Spider-Man 3 — 151.1 million (6.6%)
    23. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 148.0 million (10.3%)
    24. Furious 7 — 147.2 million (10.7%)
    25. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 146.5 million (11.6%)
    26. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 142.8 million (18.4%)
    27. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 141.1 million (21.5%) 
    28. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 138.1 million (21.9%)
    29. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest — 135.6 million (6.6%)
    30. Finding Dory — 135.1 million (6.8%)
    31. Suicide Squad — 133.7 million (15.3%)
    32. Deadpool — 132.4 million (9.6%)
    33. Frozen II — 130.3 million (6.5%)
    34. Iron Man 2 — 128.1 million (5.9%)
    35. Deadpool 2 — 125.5 million (14.8%)
    36. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 125.0 million (19.2%)

     

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites




Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Seems the $190M range is where the highest grossing "disappointing" OWs lie. TROS can join TLK and AoU. 

Makes sense that it’ll usually be the 90s. Can’t wait for 290s to be the dissappinting OW range ;) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites










Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept