THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[ViewerAnon]

4 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Just gonna reiterate that a movie can be successful and underperform simultaneously. 

...and a movie can make a slightly smaller gigantic pile of money and still not underperform.

(I’m just trying it out for when some people call AVATAR 2 a bomb at $2.1 billion or whatever)

[XXR vs XXR]

26 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Endgame OW records won't be broken in the 2020's.

Unless something changes in the way movies are viewed, it will. No opening weekend record has lasted more than 5 years, much less a full decade. 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Don't forget that TMP only made 925m in it's first run so the drops were smaller

@TMP Dang boi u rich

[Blaze Heatnix]

I think Cats is also going for a D+ CinemaScore like Black Christmas

 

"The few who saw Cats last night gave it 1 1/2 stars which syncs up with critics’ 19% bashing"

[Legion Again]

Star Wars: The Menacing Phantom

[The Futurist]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Unless something changes in the way movies are viewed, it will. No opening weekend record has lasted more than 5 years, much less a full decade. 

The OW was never destroyed by such a big gap between the last and new record, adjusted numbers taken into account.

 

Endgame OW is insane, plain and simple.

Edited December 20, 2019 by The Futurist

[Mekanos]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Unless something changes in the way movies are viewed, it will. No opening weekend record has lasted more than 5 years, much less a full decade. 

No previous movie had ever broken the previous record by 100 million though. 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

The OW was never destroyed by such a big gap between the last and new record, adjusted numbers taken into account.

 

Endgame OW is insane, plain and simple.

 

1 minute ago, Mekanos said:

No previous movie had ever broken the previous record by 100 million though. 

 

Yes, Endgame's OW is the craziest thing we've ever seen from an OW. It beat the previous record by over 38%. It will probably last longer than 5 years, but it will fall as well (again, unless viewing habits move away from OW).

In 2009, when the OW record was $158m, would you have ever predicted anything would beat that by almost $200m by the end of the 2010's? Nope. No one would have or did. So lets see what happens, because we have no idea what could come. 

[wildphantom]

42 minutes ago, doublejack said:

You have to look at the trend line. TFA > TLJ > TRoS across the board is what appears to be happening. That's pretty definitive. This is a franchise in obvious decline, with eroding GA interest. Do either of the previous SW trilogies explain away this? No, they don't.

 

The overall run for AotC was weaker than that of RotS, not just the OW. While Spider-Man can explain part of that, it doesn't explain it all. People in the target demo for both of those see lots of movies in the summer, they would have caught AotC at some point. Also, RotS had a total gate that was 88% of TPM's. AotC comes in at 70% of what TPM made. TLJ only comes in at 66% of TFA, so again we see weakness in this third trilogy. Do we really think TRoS is going to end up in the 823M domestic range? If it doesn't that's another indicator that interest isn't there.

 

TFA showed what kind of numbers a highly anticipated SW film can pull in the current market. It is very easy to conclude, then, that this new trilogy is not well received and not well liked. Installments 2 and 3 did not even come close to reaching the heights of the first, and all points are trending in the wrong direction. This franchise needs to be scaled back and spread out. Fatigue has set in and quality matters.

TFA was the first SW movie in a decade and promised the return of the holy trinity from the most beloved trilogy in movie history. 
 

That was a one-off type of phenomenon set up that a fifth SW movie in 5 years was never going to get close to. So comparing performance to TFA is laughable. 
 

I was referring to how TROS is going to do in comparison to TLJ.  We’ve no idea where it will end up as we haven’t even had ONE DAY’s box office yet. So please, don’t get all high and mighty declaring it trending in the wrong direction when it’s likely to be one of the most successful films in US box office history. 
 

See how it plays! 
 

All I was saying is that the third normally making more than the second in a SW trilogy isn’t a fair comparison when looking at the prequels, due to Clones competition from Spider-Man.  I believe it would have made more money than it did if it weren’t for that movie tearing it up that summer. 

[xiazhi]

19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Unless something changes in the way movies are viewed, it will. No opening weekend record has lasted more than 5 years, much less a full decade. 

Was ow record ever an 38% increase?

Edited December 20, 2019 by xiazhi

[redfirebird2008]

26 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Could it have a good change of becoming the longest OW title holder ? (because now that Lion King got released, if it survive Avatar 2 it could stay there until a new Avengers team get build and 2-3 avengers movie get made and the concluding one and even that....), there is a limit on how many days they can put in OW.

 

I cannot find the timeline of the opening weekend record holder but from memory it tended to change quite fast when a new ceiling got broken, I guess that list was on the old Box office mojo.

 

List below. It definitely changed pretty frequently through the years. Would have changed even more often with Friday releases for films like Independence Day, Phantom Menace, Spider-Man 2, Revenge of the Sith, and maybe others. I don't think we are gonna see anything top Endgame for a long time. 

 

 

1989 - Batman ($40M)

1992 - Batman Returns ($45M)
1993 - Jurassic Park ($47M)

1995 - Batman Forever ($52M)
1997 - JP2: Lost World ($72M)

2001 - Harry Potter 1 ($90M)

2002 - Spider-Man 1 ($115M)

2006 - Pirates 2: DMC ($135M)

2007 - Spider-Man 3 ($151M)

2008 - Dark Knight ($158M)

2011 - Potter: DH2 ($169M)

2012 - Avengers ($207M)

2015 - Jurassic World ($209M)

2015 - Force Awakens ($248M) 

2018 - Infinity War ($258M)

2019 - A: Endgame ($357M)

[ZackM]

3 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Was ow record ever an 38% increase?

Yes.

[SofNascimento]

So I just dropped by parachute but let me ask: what are the odds this Star Wars make less money than TLJ?

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

1995 - Batman Forever ($52M)
1997 - JP2: Lost World ($72M)

 

9 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Was ow record ever an 38% increase?

 

A few tenths of a percent higher for JP2 over Batman Forever. 

[ZackM]

3 minutes ago, SofNascimento said:

So I just dropped by parachute but let me ask: what are the odds this Star Wars make less money than TLJ?

59%

[misafeco]

2 minutes ago, SofNascimento said:

So I just dropped by parachute but let me ask: what are the odds this Star Wars make less money than TLJ?

Domestic: 60%

Worldwide: 90%

[Taruseth]

13 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

Yes, Endgame's OW is the craziest thing we've ever seen from an OW. It beat the previous record by over 38%. It will probably last longer than 5 years, but it will fall as well (again, unless viewing habits move away from OW).

In 2009, when the OW record was $158m, would you have ever predicted anything would beat that by almost $200m by the end of the 2010's? Nope. No one would have or did. So lets see what happens, because we have no idea what could come. 

Jurassic Park 2 broke it by 38% too.

 

What will protect Endgame's OWend record longer than probably all others in the past thirty years or so is not that it increased by 38% above the previous but rather despite it opening 100M above the previous record holder it still fell short of the all time record by $80M - in other words movies have already become insanely front loaded because OWends increase a lot but the final numbers didn't increase nearly as much.

 

[pepsa]

26 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Star Wars: The Menacing Phantom

I solved that movie, you can thank me later

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

List below. It definitely changed pretty frequently through the years. Would have changed even more often with Friday releases for films like Independence Day, Phantom Menace, Spider-Man 2, Revenge of the Sith, and maybe others. I don't think we are gonna see anything top Endgame for a long time. 

 

 

1989 - Batman ($40M)

1992 - Batman Returns ($45M)
1993 - Jurassic Park ($47M)

1995 - Batman Forever ($52M)
1997 - JP2: Lost World ($72M)

2001 - Harry Potter 1 ($90M)

2002 - Spider-Man 1 ($115M)

2006 - Pirates 2: DMC ($135M)

2007 - Spider-Man 3 ($151M)

2008 - Dark Knight ($158M)

2011 - Potter: DH2 ($169M)

2012 - Avengers ($207M)

2015 - Jurassic World ($209M)

2015 - Force Awakens ($248M) 

2018 - Infinity War ($258M)

2019 - A: Endgame ($357M)

 

adding the previous since Jaws ( I imagine before Jaws it was not yet tracked that well):

5/29/83	Return of the Jedi	Fox	$23,019,618	9.1%	1,002	$22,973	$252,583,617*
6/6/82	Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan	Par.	$14,347,221	18.2%	1,621	$8,850	$78,912,963
6/21/81	Superman II	WB	$14,100,523	13.0%	1,397	$10,093	$108,185,706
12/9/79	Star Trek: The Motion Picture	Par.	$11,926,421	14.5%	857	$13,916	$82,258,456
12/31/78	Superman (3rd weekend)	WB	$10,363,384	7.7%	817	$12,684	$134,218,018*
12/24/78	Every Which Way But Loose	WB	$10,272,294	12.1%	1,275	$8,056	$85,196,485
7/23/78	Star Wars (re-issue)	Fox	$10,166,336	3.3%	1,750	$5,809	$307,263,857*
6/18/78	Jaws 2	Uni.	$9,866,023	12.7%	640	$15,415	$77,737,272*
8/7/77	Star Wars (11th weekend)	Fox	$7,195,573	2.3%	1,044	$6,892	$307,263,857*
6/22/75	Jaws	Uni.	$7,061,513	2.7%	409	$17,265	$260,000,000

 

 

Nothing more than 2 year's there, without being locked obviously the change for EndGame to stay there over 6 year's is really high.

[doublejack]

11 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

TFA was the first SW movie in a decade and promised the return of the holy trinity from the most beloved trilogy in movie history. 
 

That was a one-off type of phenomenon set up that a fifth SW movie in 5 years was never going to get close to. So comparing performance to TFA is laughable. 
 

I was referring to how TROS is going to do in comparison to TLJ.  We’ve no idea where it will end up as we haven’t even had ONE DAY’s box office yet. So please, don’t get all high and mighty declaring it trending in the wrong direction when it’s likely to be one of the most successful films in US box office history. 
 

See how it plays! 
 

All I was saying is that the third normally making more than the second in a SW trilogy isn’t a fair comparison when looking at the prequels, due to Clones competition from Spider-Man.  I believe it would have made more money than it did if it weren’t for that movie tearing it up that summer. 

The comparison is not laughable, but what is laughable is dismissing TFA's performance as a on-off that could not be repeated or even come close to. Sorry, that logic doesn't work. TPM had the same kind of buzz about it, possibly even more so because it was being done by the master himself, and it did do very well. The other two films in that trilogy weren't left completely in the dust, though, they even had bigger OWs. This trilogy is simply not as good and the numbers are backing that up.

 

I'm also not being crazy calling TRoS < TLJ at this point. The OW is a lock, and the overall run is way better than 50/50 to play out that way. Without a 200M OW I doubt TRoS gets to 600M DOM.