Weekend Thread | Birds of Prey $33.25M Weekend

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

 I feel like a lot of people don’t realize that WOM doesn’t help a movie at the box office if people have no interest in seeing it to begin with.

this. for people to be interested in seeing a movie they previously didn't want, it needs to be a sensation like Avatar so that you need to see it to be included in the conversation. Nothing about reviews or WOM so far indicate that BoP is going to convert disinterested crowd especially with incoming headlines about flopping/disappointing/underperforming/not meeting expectations. Everyone loves the winner and this is so winner.

Edited February 8, 2020 by Valonqar

[grim22]

17 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

It could very well be a money loser, if only slightly. I mentioned it already on this forum, but BOP's budget is not 84.5m. It just goes to show how little trades understand movie budgets. BOP's after tax budget on the cali incentive site was 84.5m. On that same site Captain Marvel's after tax budget was 116m http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CA-Tax-Credit-Progress-Report-2019.pdf

Neither figure includes post-production costs and other overages. Clearly BOP's post was not as expensive as that for Cap M, but its like people all of a sudden think post is only expensive for CGI heavy movies. While BOP captured a lot more in the frame than did Cap M, there are so many hidden costs in post nowadays. Even a movie like BOP has a fair amount of special effects shots and requires a lot of CGI touch ups. Even if post was only 1/3 that of Cap M, BOP's budget is still at around 100m. If people use this cali incentive site for their info (as BOM and others do) then they're implicitly accepting Cap M's budget at 116m

Additionally, there isn't a lot of room to save money on P&A since such a large proportion of these costs are fixed. The differences in P&A costs between a massive and mid-budget movie is often only around 50%. BOP is still an event flick, so its hard to see how the marketing would be under 100m. So with about 200m budget + P&A (and that's relatively conservative for P&A, Deadline pegged Shazam's P&A at 120m and WB likely allotted the same amount of money to both films) I think BOP will need at least between 250m - 275m WW to break even, and thats with solid ancilliaries (assuming people who skipped out on BOP in theaters will catch it as a rental/streamer)

Captain Marvel didn't film only in CA. BoP filmed completely in California. That's the difference.

 

Also, tax credits are on qualified expenses as opposed to full expenses. There's a lot of out of state work done which won't qualify.

[TwoMisfits]

37 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2020-02-07/?ref_=bo_hm_rd

TD	YD	Release	Daily	%± YD	%± LW	Theaters	Avg	To Date	Days	Distributor

1	-	Birds of Prey	$13,025,000	-	-	4,236	$3,074	$13,025,000	1	Warner Bros.
2	1	Bad Boys for Life	$3,030,000	+166%	-41.6%	3,530	$858	$157,352,207	22	Sony Pictures Releasing
3	2	1917	$2,320,000	+126.6%	-17%	3,548	$653	$125,862,909	45	Universal Pictures
4	4	Dolittle	$1,470,000	+216%	-25.2%	3,462	$424	$58,769,985	22	Universal Pictures
5	5	Jumanji: The Next Level	$1,240,000	+237%	-18.5%	2,729	$454	$294,170,411	57	Sony Pictures Releasing
6	3	The Gentlemen	$1,200,000	+118.7%	-34.7%	2,557	$469	$23,871,981	15	STX Entertainment
7	6	Gretel & Hansel	$965,000	+170.1%	-58.8%	3,007	$320	$8,989,240	8	United Artists Releasing
8	9	Knives Out	$643,000	+176.5%	-17.2%	1,443	$445	$157,234,650	73	Lionsgate
9	7	Little Women	$615,000	+79.3%	-29.7%	1,805	$340	$100,963,143	45	Sony Pictures Releasing
10	8	Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker	$524,000	+94.8%	-38.5%	1,746	$300	$508,845,478	50	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
11	10	Just Mercy	$435,000	+106.8%	-36.3%	1,315	$330	$32,285,112	45	Warner Bros.
12	13	The Turning	$400,000	+113.7%	-56.5%	1,848	$216	$13,011,330	15	Universal Pictures
13	12	Parasite	$400,000	+109.6%	-4%	1,060	$377	$34,372,282	120	Neon
14	14	Jojo Rabbit	$374,000	+105.2%	-9.2%	1,096	$341	$29,120,950	113	Fox Searchlight Pictures
15	11	The Rhythm Section	$295,000	+44.9%	-74.4%	3,049	$96	$4,187,991	8	Paramount Pictures
16	15	Frozen II	$243,000	+113.7%	-35.4%	1,131	$214	$473,176,674	78	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
17	16	Ford v Ferrari	$199,000	+147.8%	+0.2%	743	$267	$115,895,692	85	Twentieth Century Fox
18	17	Spies in Disguise	$178,000	+135.9%	-29.6%	800	$222	$64,093,667	45	Twentieth Century Fox
19	20	Bombshell	$66,000	+49.6%	-29.1%	272	$242	$31,101,756	57	Lionsgate
20	22	Like a Boss	$55,000	+45.8%	-65.3%	295	$186	$21,818,873	29	Paramount Pictures
21	24	Underwater	$33,000	+27.2%	-71.2%	226	$146	$16,923,061	29	Twentieth Century Fox
22	21	Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood	$25,000	-42.4%	+20.8%	583	$42	$142,196,868	197	Sony Pictures Releasing
23	25	A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	$25,000	+28.3%	-33.9%	155	$161	$61,252,240	78	Sony Pictures Releasing
24	32	Cats	$16,000	+297%	-22%	85	$188	$27,123,860	50	Universal Pictures
25	29	Panga	$9,000	+64.4%	-74.7%	37	$243	$544,049	15	FIP
26	35	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	$6,000	+133.9%	-27.3%	68	$88	$113,897,999	113	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Damn, those 3/4/5 movies have been chugging along the last 3 weeks - biggest beneficiaries of the past 3 weeks have been 1917, Dolittle, and Jumanji...and all 3 probably continue to benefit for all of Feb b/c they are still 3/4/5...(Jumanji might be the drop for Sonic, but I don't even know that theaters have to clear out the top 5 next week for the openers b/c BoP will have so much room available to give away by Thursday)...

 

EDIT TO ADD: Sony is the winner of 2020 so far...and Universal is doing better than they probably thought they would 3 weeks ago:)...

Edited February 8, 2020 by TwoMisfits

[sfran43]

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)	$34,000,000	—	4,236	—	$8,026	$34,000,000	1	Warner Bros.
2	Bad Boys For Life	$11,100,000	-37%	3,530	-175	$3,144	$165,422,207	4	Sony / Columbia
3	1917	$8,800,000	-7%	3,548	-439	$2,480	$132,342,909	7	Universal Pictures
4	Dolittle	$6,600,000	-13%	3,462	-288	$1,906	$63,899,985	4	Universal
5	Jumanji: The Next Level	$5,500,000	-8%	2,729	-216	$2,015	$298,430,411	9	Sony Pictures
6	The Gentlemen	$4,300,000	-23%	2,557	-118	$1,682	$26,971,981	3	STX Entertainment
7	Knives Out	$2,400,000	-7%	1,443	-112	$1,663	$158,991,650	11	Lionsgate
8	Little Women	$2,400,000	-22%	1,805	-496	$1,330	$102,748,143	7	Sony Pictures
9	Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker	$2,300,000	-28%	1,746	-456	$1,317	$510,621,478	8	Disney
10	Just Mercy	$1,600,000	-26%	1,315	-492	$1,217	$33,450,112	7	Warner Bros.
11	Jojo Rabbit	$1,500,000	12%	1,096	-77	$1,369	$30,246,950	17	Fox Searchlight
12	The Turning	$1,400,000	-54%	1,848	-723	$758	$14,011,330	3	Universal Pictures
13	Frozen II	$1,300,000	-27%	1,131	-261	$1,149	$474,233,674	12	Disney
14	The Rhythm Section	$1,000,000	-63%	3,049	0	$328	$4,892,991	2	Paramount

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Spies in Disguise	$1,000,000	-16%	800	-228	$1,250	$64,915,667	7	20th Century Fox
2	Ford v. Ferrari	$790,000	28%	743	-181	$1,063	$116,486,692	13	20th Century Fox
3	Bombshell	$255,000	-20%	272	-206	$938	$31,290,756	9	Lionsgate
4	Like a Boss	$190,000	-62%	295	-370	$644	$21,953,873	5	Paramount Pictures
5	Underwater	$125,000	-67%	226	-375	$553	$17,015,061	5	20th Century Fox
6	Once Upon a Time In Hollywood	$110,000	-26%	583	-36	$189	$142,281,868	29	Sony Pictures
7	A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	$100,000	-19%	155	-46	$645	$61,327,240	12	Sony Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Cats	$60,000	-15%	85	-20	$706	$27,167,860	8	Universal Pictures
2	Panga	$35,000	-72%	37	-65	$946	$570,049	3	FIP
3	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	$30,000	-14%	68	-16	$441	$113,921,999	17	Disney

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

It could very well be a money loser, if only slightly. I mentioned it already on this forum, but BOP's budget is not 84.5m. It just goes to show how little trades understand movie budgets. BOP's after tax budget on the cali incentive site was 84.5m. On that same site Captain Marvel's after tax budget was 116m http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CA-Tax-Credit-Progress-Report-2019.pdf

Neither figure includes post-production costs and other overages. Clearly BOP's post was not as expensive as that for Cap M, but its like people all of a sudden think post is only expensive for CGI heavy movies. While BOP captured a lot more in the frame than did Cap M, there are so many hidden costs in post nowadays. Even a movie like BOP has a fair amount of special effects shots and requires a lot of CGI touch ups. Even if post was only 1/3 that of Cap M, BOP's budget is still at around 100m. If people use this cali incentive site for their info (as BOM and others do) then they're implicitly accepting Cap M's budget at 116m

Additionally, there isn't a lot of room to save money on P&A since such a large proportion of these costs are fixed. The differences in P&A costs between a massive and mid-budget movie is often only around 50%. BOP is still an event flick, so its hard to see how the marketing would be under 100m. So with about 200m budget + P&A (and that's relatively conservative for P&A, Deadline pegged Shazam's P&A at 120m and WB likely allotted the same amount of money to both films) I think BOP will need at least between 250m - 275m WW to break even, and thats with solid ancilliaries (assuming people who skipped out on BOP in theaters will catch it as a rental/streamer)

I owe you a like, but I'm out:).

 

Deadline did previously announce (before anyone saw a box office dollar) that it would need $250M WW to break even...and that's in doubt right now after this weekend...we could be in flop territory (although probably not bomb ones, since I reserve that for the $100M+ money losers)...

[OncomingStorm93]

Nifty comparison: The Green Hornet (Jan 14, 2011)

 

B-list comic book adaptation also coming from a surrealist indie director (Gondry)

 

$33m OW, $99m Domestic, $227 WW total.

[Justin4125]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Captain Marvel didn't film only in CA. BoP filmed completely in California. That's the difference.

You're right that does account for some of the lost money, but still Cap M was essentially a Cali-made film. They scheduled shots in Baton Rouge for the tail end of filming and did two weeks with about half the crew. I highly doubt this accounts for the missing 50m from its budget. In any case there's still missing money from post-production, and that still brings BOP's budget over the quoted 85m

[titanic2187]

50 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Brutal. Will 200m WW even happen at this point?

At this point, even Parasite can have bigger gross than BoP. 

[TheUndertaker]

Just realized BOP total box office will probably end up far behind Joker's opening weekend.

[John Marston]

200m likely will not happen. It's flopping in pretty much every market

[Madhuvan]

Could Sony become the #1 Studio Domestic in 2020?

Everything is favouring them right now. 

[JGAR4LIFE]

13 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Could Sony become the #1 Studio Domestic in 2020?

Everything is favouring them right now. 

As long as it’s not Disney again

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, DlAMONDZ said:

Did it? Reshoots felt like they didn't last more than 2 weeks or so

 

Anyway. I'll take this as good news for WW84 tho

I remember there was a report about 3 or 4 weeks.

[Valonqar]

Nobody is happy. A lot of people were rooting for this movie but felt that R rating was a bad idea and thought that marketing was subpar. Pointing out they were right is not the same as being happy. 

[Morieris]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

A lot of people were rooting for this movie but felt that R rating was a bad idea

 

I scoffed at Sony for making Bloodshot PG-13, but heck maybe they were right.

[Europe is my playground]

Enough with the depressing Birds of Prey stuff. Am I the only one who thinks Fantasy Island  will overperform ? 

[DlAMONDZ]

If Leto Morbius has a bigger opening...

[Valonqar]

Morbius gonna flop. Who the fuck knows about this character and Leto isn't likable like Hardy. 

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Morbius gonna flop. Who the fuck knows about this character and Leto isn't likable like Hardy. 

I thought it would but the trailer is pretty well received and people are now intrigued by the potential MCU connections 

[Valonqar]

Just now, John Marston said:

I thought it would but the trailer is pretty well received and people are now intrigued by the potential MCU connections 

ah, my bad. Forgot about that interest booster.