The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Jeight]

45 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The soft start is only natural after how polarizing ths last couple of movies have been. Of course people are going to be more apprehensive. If the reviews are on par with the first Black Panther, it should recover with ease.

Only Thor was polarizing. Mom had standard mcu reviews and audience scores. 

[Krissykins]

Halloween Ends looking strong I think. 
 

Hoping for $40m+, despite Peacock and reaction to Halloween Kills. 

[lorddemaxus]

54 minutes ago, Jeight said:

Only Thor was polarizing. Mom had standard mcu reviews and audience scores. 

B+ is a standard score for the MCU now?

[Cooper Legion]

17 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

B+ is a standard score for the MCU now?

Seen some really strong revisionary copium on this one recently

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, Jeight said:

Only Thor was polarizing. Mom had standard mcu reviews and audience scores. 

Yet they had the same CS?? 

[charlie Jatinder]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Harkins T-38 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
360	89,384	4,624	5.17%	$57,580	$12.45

 

Comps

0.74x of Thor 4 first day - $21.55M

1.18x of The Batman first day - $25.50M

 

That's only somewhat decent comp for the film at this moment. 

[Maggie]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Harkins T-38 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
360	89,384	4,624	5.17%	$57,580	$12.45

 

Comps

0.74x of Thor 4 first day - $21.55M

1.18x of The Batman first day - $25.50M

 

That's only somewhat decent comp for the film at this moment. 

wow it's doing worse than Thor4? That's unexpected. How many days of presales did Thor have?

[TwoMisfits]

Future ATOM/T-Mobile deal...FIRST since Top Gun 2 this summer...

 

Black Adam will be getting a $5/off each ticket deal (this was the same deal Top Gun 2 got) on Oct 18...

 

So, be aware this may both slightly slow down presales til Oct 18 and then give Oct 18 a very big day.  

 

That said, this isn't a $4 ticket deal, which tends to be the one that really ramps sales on the day.  But with so few deals on big movies all summer, this could move the needle, especially b/c this is the type of movie that really benefits...a blockbuster, but one with a LOT of fence sitters thinking about going but not committing to going...and one which will likely draw families who will use 2-3 of the codes off their multiple phones to discount their whole group (yes, been there, done that:)...

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

wow it's doing worse than Thor4? That's unexpected. How many days of presales did Thor have?

18 vs 38 for WF

[AJG]

3 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

18 vs 38 for WF

I wonder why they released the tix so early. Who buys a movie ticket 40 days in advance?

[Eric Prime]

3 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Seen some really strong revisionary copium on this one recently

I mean the copium is by...one person. And it's obvious they aren't going to change their mind no matter what you show them, so just ignore and let them be.

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, Eric Smiley said:

I mean the copium is by...one person. And it's obvious they aren't going to change their mind no matter what you show them, so just ignore and let them be.

Oh, has it just been one guy? Feel like I’ve seen it ~3 times on different days recently but I don’t pay much attention to usernames. That is funnier to be sure

[stripe]

2 hours ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

18 vs 38 for WF

 

So here is the reason WF is behind Thor. Let's wait and see where WF is 20 days from now before pressing the panic button

[charlie Jatinder]

Not so bad huh. Guess Phase IV has prepared everyone quite well.

[keysersoze123]

I dont think opening day presales has any impact whether there is 3 weeks or 5 weeks. Thor started on 6/13 and so it was 25 days and here there is 38 days. Its just that we have something unprecendented with BP2. Its the sequel not only without its central hero but they the character is gone all together. Plus the perfect storm captured with the 1st movie cannot be recaptured. It was always destined to drop. Let us see how much closer to release. 

[Jeight]

5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

B+ is a standard score for the MCU now?

imagine thinking cinemascore is the end all be all when it comes to reception. 

 

I guess then ant-man had better reception than the Batman by your metrics despite the batman having better audience scores everywhere from rt to letterboxd to imdb... 

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, Jeight said:

imagine thinking cinemascore is the end all be all when it comes to reception. 

 

I guess then ant-man had better reception than the Batman by your metrics despite the batman having better audience scores everywhere from rt to letterboxd to imdb... 

Ds MoM dropped like 68% from OW to its 2nd weekend and got only a little over 400m dom despite opening to almost 190m and having ZERO comp for 3 weeks, its pretty obvious the reception for the movie was just OK

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/3/2022 at 8:53 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Amsterdam	T-3	Jax	5	14	13	23	3,144	0.73%
		Phx	6	12	20	49	2,596	1.89%
		Ral	8	18	12	33	2,201	1.50%
	Total		19	44	45	105	7,941	1.32%
Black Adam	T-17	Jax	5	65	47	129	11,269	1.14%
		Phx	6	42	55	170	8,661	1.96%
		Ral	8	60	58	168	8,559	1.96%
	Total		19	167	160	467	28,489	1.64%
Halloween Ends	T-10	Jax	5	30	32	101	5,666	1.78%
		Phx	6	20	34	115	3,911	2.94%
		Ral	7	26	38	135	3,388	3.98%
	Total		18	76	104	351	12,965	2.71%
Lyle Lyle	T-3	Jax	5	33	7	12	3,572	0.34%
		Phx	6	15	11	20	2,298	0.87%
		Ral	7	21	10	19	2,803	0.68%
	Total		18	69	28	51	8,673	0.59%

*New sales since Friday morning

 

Lyle Lyle T-3 comps

 - Super Pets - .293x (645k)

 - Bad Guys - .531x (611k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .586x (528k)

 - Paws of Fury - .944x (477k)

 

Amsterdam T-3 comps

 - Bullet Train - .242x (810k)

 - Beast - 1.33x (1.23m)

 - Massive Talent - .972x (681k)

 - Free Guy - .344x (757k)

 

Halloween Ends T-10 comps
 - Nope - .828x (5.3m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.16x (4.77m)

 - Black Phone + EA - 2.08x (6.23m)

 

(HK I started at T-7; Scream I only have T-0)

 

Black Adam T-17 comps

 - Eternals - .394x (3.75m)

 - TG2 - .323x (4.75m)

 - Black Widow - .283x (3.74m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.152x (8.82m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Amsterdam	T-2	Jax	6	15	5	28	3,313	0.85%
		Phx	7	15	14	63	3,003	2.10%
		Ral	8	18	1	34	2,124	1.60%
	Total		21	48	20	125	8,440	1.48%
Black Adam	T-16	Jax	6	67	41	170	11,479	1.48%
		Phx	6	42	25	195	8,661	2.25%
		Ral	8	61	35	203	8,649	2.35%
	Total		20	170	101	568	28,789	1.97%
Black Panther 2	T-37	Jax	6	128	905	905	18,561	4.88%
		Phx	6	125	826	826	18,513	4.46%
		Ral	8	116	1,303	1,303	14,206	9.17%
	Total		20	369	3,034	3,034	51,280	5.92%
BP2 DF	T-37	Jax	2	2	55	55	198	27.78%
	Total		2	2	55	55	198	27.78%
Halloween Ends	T-9	Jax	5	30	20	121	5,666	2.14%
		Phx	6	22	0	115	4,065	2.83%
		Ral	8	34	15	150	4,267	3.52%
	Total		19	86	35	386	13,998	2.76%
Lyle Lyle	T-2	Jax	5	33	-1	11	3,572	0.31%
		Phx	7	19	0	20	2,585	0.77%
		Ral	7	22	5	24	2,790	0.86%
	Total		19	74	4	55	8,947	0.61%

 

Lyle Lyle T-2 comps

 - Super Pets - .259x (571k)

 - Bad Guys - .458x (527k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .529x (476k)

 - Paws of Fury - .809x (408k)

 

Amsterdam T-2 comps

 - Bullet Train - .238x (798k)

 - Beast - 1.11x (1.02m)

 - Massive Talent - .912x (639k)

 - Free Guy - .356x (783k)

 - The Last Duel - 1.506x (527k)

 

Halloween Ends T-9 comps
 - Nope - .82x (5.25m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.22x (5.01m)

 - Black Phone + EA - 2.18x (6.54m)

 

(HK I started at T-7; Scream I only have T-0)

 

Black Adam T-16 comps

 - Eternals - .465x (4.416m)

 - TG2 - .364x (5.35m)

 - Black Widow - .331x (4.37m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.44x (9.99m)

 - JW3 Total - .234x (4.22m)

 

Black Panther 2 First 24 hr comps

 - Batman Total - .933x (20.15m)

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .505x (18.19m)

 - Thor 4 - .899x (26.07m)

[DAJK]

Amsterdam sales are too strong for me to confidently predict sub-5M for it. Probably going with 9-12 for the time being.

[Factcheck]

5 minutes ago, Jeight said:

imagine thinking cinemascore is the end all be all when it comes to reception. 

 

I guess then ant-man had better reception than the Batman by your metrics despite the batman having better audience scores everywhere from rt to letterboxd to imdb... 

Can't compare unverified RT score with verified score, Ant-Man would have gotten 90%+ verified score with 'A' Cinemascore. Also Batman has way more hardcore fans than Ant-Man who tends to give it higher score on IMDb if they like the movie.