The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

 

GotG3, counted after ca. 1 hour on sale for Thursday, May 4:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 184 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 154 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (18 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (18 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 258 (28 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 382 (37 (!) showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.002.

Comps (all three movies counted for Thursday): Dune had after 1 day 1.038 sold tickets,
Thor 4 had on Tuesday of the release week 7.843 sold tickets
and SC had on Monday of the release week 1.680 sold tickets.

Over 1k sold tickets after 1 hour of course isn't too bad but also in my theaters the beginning could have been better. Especially between the coasts. But let's see how the Thursday and Friday presales look tomorrow. Dune's presales ca. doubled (1 hour vs 1 day).
 

A few minutes ago it looked already a bit better for GotG3 in my theaters. It had in the AMC in NY 280 sold tickets (after 1 hour it were 184) and in the AMC in San Francisco 492 sold tickets (after 1 hour 258).

 

[Porthos]

BTW, been meaning to mention this, but in addition to probably losing @katnisscinnaplex recently, @M37 hasn't logged in in a while.

 

Hope you're just taking a break, M37, and still lurking here as your analysis/insight was and is always welcome.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Theres a mod that don't like it when I point this out but to be clear "underperformance" for a Marvel OW is what most other movies would kill for. This boards perception is very skewed by Endgame and Infinity War. It's less superhero fatigue for Marvel and more ludicrously high expectations for everything.

 

I'm not disputing that. But this thread is about the data. We're seeing a decline in up front ticket demand within the franchise. 

 

What impacts of that lower demand will have, or whether expectations are reasonable is fodder for the other threads on this board. 

 

I'm curious to see how the trend holds leading up to release. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BTW, been meaning to mention this, but in addition to probably losing @katnisscinnaplex recently, @M37 hasn't logged in in a while.

 

Hope you're just taking a break, M37, and still lurking here as your analysis/insight was and is always welcome.

They are just taking breaks right. When you use words like losing, it feels like for good :-(

 

GOTG3 Friday PS is also not too hot. 

GOTG Friday(finished around 130PM PST) - 23792/1265062 443827.96 6843 shows. 

 

Its frontloaded like any MCU movie is. Ant man did 39K for friday OD. Thor did tad under 63K.  Let us see where this one ends up at. previews went up to 49690. if I have to guess OD will be between 70-80K. Not too far from Ant 3 OD ps at MTC1. That said MTC1 will be the strongest for this movie. Let us see how it does relative to Ant 3 at Sacramento or other chains that @Inceptionzq or @Menor Reborn or @charlie Jatinder tracks. 

[Flamengo81]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BTW, been meaning to mention this, but in addition to probably losing @katnisscinnaplex recently, @M37 hasn't logged in in a while.

 

Hope you're just taking a break, M37, and still lurking here as your analysis/insight was and is always welcome.

Does anyone know them personally or something to provide some insight?

This sudden disappearence worries me a little. I hope everythings is okay with them and is just us reaching a little bit. Even though is just box office discussion online, it's almost impossible to not bond at some degree with people after so much talking everyday.

[Immortal]

2 hours ago, Firepower said:

I track only Youtube because other platforms are usually not reliable and often used to create fake view records where studios pull numbers out of their ass, it has to be consistent on all platforms. DS2 had more views than Thor on Youtube and Thor had around Wakanda Forever views. It isn't reliable indication, but I've seen many examples where it indicated breakout or underperformance. And while I could be very wrong in the end, GoTG3 trailer views indicated underperformance.

The problem with Youtube views is that they have shrunken considerably in recent years with Mario (19mn first trailer in 4 months, 8.9mn final trailer in 3 weeks), flash(15mn in nearly 2 months), and Fast X(10mn in nearly 2 months) compared to similar films(PiB, Shazam 2, JW4) respectively. By those numbers YT views of GotG3 trailers are fine(27mn in 4 months, 12mn in nearly 2 months)

[TheFlatLannister]

ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOLUME 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

*First 12 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
205	3278	31096	10.5%

 

A couple of showings are almost sold out. Not as bad as I originally thought. 

 

Comps previews:

D&D (2.638x) $10.8M OD

JOHN WICK (0.911x) $8.1M OD

 

It's way too early to make any real predictions. I would say by 24 hours it should have 3500 tickets sold, so on par with John Wick T-0

 

A reason why sales may be slower is because previous MCU titles have had trailers debut alongside the launch of tickets, but GOTG did not follow this trend

[Tinalera]

Mario Brothers

Thurs April 6 Fri April 7 T-4

Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
NS	Thurs	4	30	476	7110	7586	0.0627
	Fri	4	24	1537	4898	6435	0.2388
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
NB	Thurs	4	22	460	4626	5086	0.0904
	Fri	3	23	1237	4961	6198	0.1995
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
NFLD	Thurs	1	19	453	3425	3878	0.1168
	Fri	1	6	888	480	1368	0.6491

 

 

Yes that's Newfoundland with 64 (!) percent....mind you they only have 6 screens open right now-that number will go down as more screens added. 

Overall the Bros look like they're gonna do some really good numbers for Canada-its impressive to see a new IP do so well, but it IS Mario. And opening on Easter weekend was a deft move by the studio. Assuming these numbers continue to hold, I think Universal has a new tentpole on their hands, and as I said another time, with the Mario World theme parks open in California and in Florida in next few years, this is going to be a huge boost. 

 

As far as GOTG- ive got an away weekend this weekend, so I will probably look at starting the GOTG count in Canada early next week (first glances are showing some decent sales for a movie a month out). 

[cooldude97]

‘Super Mario Bros Movie’ Jumping To $225 Million Global Box Office Opening – Deadline

[Eric Prime]

1 hour ago, Flamengo81 said:

Does anyone know them personally or something to provide some insight?

This sudden disappearence worries me a little. I hope everythings is okay with them and is just us reaching a little bit. Even though is just box office discussion online, it's almost impossible to not bond at some degree with people after so much talking everyday.

They probably just need a break or are busy in their personal lives. This is just a hobby at the end of the day after all

[Flamengo81]

43 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Mario Brothers

Thurs April 6 Fri April 7 T-4

Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
NS	Thurs	4	30	476	7110	7586	0.0627
	Fri	4	24	1537	4898	6435	0.2388
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
NB	Thurs	4	22	460	4626	5086	0.0904
	Fri	3	23	1237	4961	6198	0.1995
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
NFLD	Thurs	1	19	453	3425	3878	0.1168
	Fri	1	6	888	480	1368	0.6491

 

 

Yes that's Newfoundland with 64 (!) percent....mind you they only have 6 screens open right now-that number will go down as more screens added. 

Overall the Bros look like they're gonna do some really good numbers for Canada-its impressive to see a new IP do so well, but it IS Mario. And opening on Easter weekend was a deft move by the studio. Assuming these numbers continue to hold, I think Universal has a new tentpole on their hands, and as I said another time, with the Mario World theme parks open in California and in Florida in next few years, this is going to be a huge boost. 

 

As far as GOTG- ive got an away weekend this weekend, so I will probably look at starting the GOTG count in Canada early next week (first glances are showing some decent sales for a movie a month out). 

Universal keeps winning

[Flamengo81]

2 minutes ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

They probably just need a break or are busy in their personal lives. This is just a hobby at the end of the day after all

You are probably right. 

[GOGODanca]

Guardians premiere on the 6th and Fast X on the 20th

[poweranimals]

6 hours ago, Maggie said:

Superhero fatigue is possible, but maybe people  are not that excited because they know  Gunn has abandoned ship and went to DC. Anyway, i'm sure it will still be big

Why would anyone care about that? It shouldn't have any impact on the movie at all.

[SpiderByte]

The general public probably has no idea that Gunns moved to DC, aside from maybe the news of his Superman movie.

[Flamengo81]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

The general public probably has no idea that Gunns moved to DC, aside from maybe the news of his Superman movie.

The general public don't even know who tf directs Guardians movies.

[Firepower]

2 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

The general public don't even know who tf directs Guardians movies.

Unaware Joes.

[Flamengo81]

6 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Unaware Joes.

Aside from a VERY small amount of directors, the GA don't have a clue about who is directing the movie they are going to see. 

[TwoMisfits]

Okay, 1 of 2 locals set for Wednesday...the non-PLF one

 

Mario is getting 22 showings (all non-PLF, but 4 3d), so it expanded, but not quite as big as I might have hoped.  This is 4.5 of the 12 screens (I was hoping for big Marvel team up numbers of 6 screens, but there's too many holdovers and new stuff and we have spring break).

 

Speaking of new and holdovers...

 

Air gets 1 screen (no expansion)

D&D keeps 1.75 screens - they are hoping the WOM helps

JW3 keeps 2.25 screens

Shazam stays and keeps 1 screen

Creed III stays and keeps 1 screen

Scream 6 is the Spring Break loser and drops to a single evening showing (.25 screen)

And weirdly, 65 keeps a full screen.  I can only imagine this is so Mario can steal showings if necessary or it's a typo b/c this is the last movie on the list, under Scream's .25 screen offering.

 

Especially, since if I count above, this is more than 12 screens at a 12 screen theater, so I think 65 is a typo, and will be getting .25 screens, after someone comes in tomorrow morning...

 

Dropped movies who lose the area's Spring Break week starting Wednesday - ALL the foreign films (there were many), Ant Man, and Puss.

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Megaplex

 

T-3 Wednesday(194 showings): 8012(+1306)/56714

 

T-4 Thursday(186 showings): 2774(+499)/56204

1.36x Antman 3 Thurs+Fri (62.92M)*

0.727x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (50.53M)*

 

T-5 Friday(187 showings): 4100(+589)/56161

0.930x Thor L&T T-5 (37.70M)

 

T-6 Saturday(187 showings): 3787(+548)/56471

1.52x Thor L&T T-6 (64.20M)

 

Realized that the Thor Fri & Sat comps for yesterday were T-5 & T-6, not T-6 & T-7. I didn't get Thor numbers that day, so I'll just leave it but that's why there's a big jump in those comps

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

Mario Megaplex

 

T-2 Wednesday(225 showings): 11067(+3055)/61932

 

T-3 Thursday(224 showings): 3706(+932)/62137

1.69x Antman 3 Thurs+Fri (78.69M)*

1.02x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (70.77M)*

 

T-4 Friday(228 showings): 5200(+1100)/62779

1.46x Antman 3 T-4 (42.35M)

1.06x Thor L&T T-4 (42.98M)

 

T-5 Saturday(223 showings): 4342(+555)/62869

1.61x Antman 3 T-5 (54.48M)

1.51x Thor L&T T-5 (63.77M)

 

The Spring Break effect is in full swing

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs