The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

That seems way excessive, you really think IM would end up lower than 6x? Provided it does hit 12.5M previews of course.

Yeah. It’s summer, DC established character/nostalgia fan appeal, with EA, and sales show massive preview loading at the moment (even relative to usual for CBM first days).
 

That said, the sun is Father’s Day and the following mon is Juneteenth, so I think it can maybe increase.
 

Something like

12.5

19

21.5

22 //75  

 

Thinking a 5-6 IM for now, reception would drive to higher side or perhaps even 6-6.5 zone but really struggle to see more.

[stephanos13]

Way overreaction just from a few hours of sales for The Flash.

 

I think Flash will have $100M+ weekend with ease.

[Liiviig 1998]

32 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Probably not enough for 75 

Batman managed 6x IM with EA. That number if reception is good would be good enough for 75-80M+

 

I do agree sales should definitely be better but don't think it will be as front loaded as the MCU considering where the brand is and audiences are less willing to dish out tickets for a DC film compared to an MCU entry.

 

Won't be surprised if this goes 6.5+ IM.

 

But for now if this holds 70m+ weekend but hope wom is good and sales pick up to at least 15m.

 

70m would  not be great but not terrible either. 

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Batman managed 6x IM with EA. That number if reception is good would be good enough for 75-80M+

 

I do agree sales should definitely be better but don't think it will be as front loaded as the MCU considering where the brand is and audiences are less willing to dish out tickets for a DC film compared to an MCU entry.

 

Won't be surprised if this goes 6.5+ IM.

 

But for now if this holds 70m+ weekend but hope wom is good and sales pick up to at least 15m.

 

70m would  not be great but not terrible either. 

I’m not sure if Batman would hit even 5x in summer though. It’s so much easier to kids, teens, even adults to actually cram those 2/3pm starts that we now have relative to the schoolday Ths. Plus some business gets diffused to following weekdays. If Batman was to open on a normal midsummer wknd maybe it breaks down like:

400 Dom

161 true OWeek

27 previews 

39 fri

39 sat

33 fri // 138 (5.11x)

I roughed a lot of that out so don’t take any specific number too seriously — just to say that summer Th are much heavier denominators when it comes to FSS/th, and preview th aren’t immune from that especially with modern start times.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

When I wake up to 5 new pages in the tracking thread, I know something is awry….

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, XXR Anti-Hero said:

When I wake up to 5 new pages in the tracking thread, I know something is awry….

 

 

Mazel tov

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

So TLM aiming for 40-45M Friday+previews. This is huge.

Other recent MD tentpoles: TGM (52M OD), Aladdin (31.3M), Solo (35.3M), Pirates5 (23.5M)

 

 

How do you come to those numbers?

[vafrow]

I've added Flash and Dial of Destiny to my tracking for Milton, Ontario, but after 24 hours of both, Flash has sold zero tickets and Dial of Destiny just three.

 

The bigger theatre with more premium screens about 30 minutes away has more robust business for both. But, I'd say both are below what I would have expected. 

 

[stripe]

29 minutes ago, jedijake said:

How do you come to those numbers?

 

Looks like 12M previews. And @keysersoze123 data for Friday points to a possible 30M. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 hours ago, Super said:

But didn’t the DC movies with social media hype have good presales? Like The Batman and Joker being the most recent ones? And those didn’t crash and burn when released either. So I might be missing the pattern unless we’re claiming every DC movie as having social media hype. 

There's a difference, people actually care about Batman and Joker.

 

And whatever little tickets Flash is selling is because of Batmen.

[charlie Jatinder]

NOT DC thread.

 

Take character movie discussion or even movie hit/flop discussion there.

 

Mods do the needful

 

[jedijake]

44 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Looks like 12M previews. And @keysersoze123 data for Friday points to a possible 30M. 

So $120 million 3-day and over $140-150 million 4-day is on the table?

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Wouldn't that be a direct consequence of summer being too overcrowded?

Maybe, but it's not like the majority of this summer's movies (which include aging franchises and wild cards that could ultimately go either way) don't have potential hurdles they need to overcome as well.

[Wotad]

9 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

a movie like this should have strong fan rush in terms of tickets sold. 

I mean I don't think it should be when DC fans who are the ones more likely to pre-order tickets know it's being rebooted and the brand is in a very bad place. In general, films have been less pre-sales heavy and rely on WOM. 

 

Compared to how DCEU has been doing anything near 100m OW would be a win. 

[Wotad]

4 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

The notion that this obviously Fan Driven Movie will somehow behave like more general audience franchises and will be less frontloaded will be broken soon.

 

 

I mean guardians basically performed like that. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, Wotad said:

I mean guardians basically performed like that. 

Guardians with 17.5 Previews and Excellent WOM - 118 OW 

 

Jurassic World Dominion with 18 Previews and Eh WOM - 145 

 

Now that is a general audience franchise, so not similar.

[el sid]

4 hours ago, romeross said:

"Kandahar" and ABOUT MY FATHER looking good or bad?

Unbelievable many error reports at the moment 🤨.
I won't count About My Father (with all the error reports I'm happy if I can finish The Little Mermaid later) but I counted Kandahar a few minutes ago.

It had for tomorrow 16 sold tickets with showtimes in 4 theaters.
Comps (all three movies counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Operation Fortune had 96 sold tickets,
Plane had 161
and Copshop had 34.
The Covenant had on Thursday 77 sold tickets.
 

And for Friday Kandahar had 14 sold tickets in 4 (actually in 5 but nonstop error reports in the AMC Centerpoint) theaters.
Comps (all three movies counted on Wednesday for Friday): Operation Fortune had 98 sold tickets,
Plane had 248
and Copshop had 26.
The Covenant had on Thursday 98 sold tickets.
 

Really not encouraging presales-wise. Let's say the sales double till tomorrow then it would be at ca. 50% of The Covenant = 3M plus normally G. Butler movies have a lot of walk-ups. OTOH this doesn't always work e.g. it didn't save Copshop. 
With good walk-ups ca. 5M 3-day would be my guess.

Edited May 24, 2023 by el sid

[filmlover]

The quartet of non-Ariel openers this weekend are headed for puny openings/totals, most sadly You Hurt My Feelings. That should've been a Searchlight or Focus release tbh (it's unlikely they would've released it the same weekend its target audience of older women are likely to choose Little Mermaid instead), it wasn't the right fit for A24 and the particular type of movies they tend to push.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Yeah. It’s summer, DC established character/nostalgia fan appeal, with EA, and sales show massive preview loading at the moment (even relative to usual for CBM first days).
 

That said, the sun is Father’s Day and the following mon is Juneteenth, so I think it can maybe increase.
 

Something like

12.5

19

21.5

22 //75  

 

Thinking a 5-6 IM for now, reception would drive to higher side or perhaps even 6-6.5 zone but really struggle to see more.

No way its going that low. Its friday presales are fine where I see it. I think at least 25m true friday will happen. 

[ZackM]

On 5/23/2023 at 8:57 AM, ZackM said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-38 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	2,435
Seats Added	498,507
Seats Sold	17,357
5/22/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	415	2,435	17,357	498,507	3.48%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	1	2	4	6
ATP
$18.43

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-37 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	17	2,435
Seats Added	2,684	498,507
Seats Sold	1,441	17,357
5/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	417	2,452	18,798	501,191	3.75%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	1	2	4	6
ATP
$18.37

Edited May 24, 2023 by ZackM