The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont like combining EA as ratios are different. Just use thursday only ratio and add whatever it will gross on wednesday. 

anyone watching on WED would have def watched on THU. without Ea comps just don't work. final day will have big divergence from rest of run.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/5/2023 at 8:12 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-10	Jax	6	62	26	415	9,790	4.24%
		Phx	6	48	30	491	8,749	5.61%
		Ral	8	62	22	355	8,640	4.11%
	Total		20	172	78	1,261	27,179	4.64%
Transformers 6	T-3	Jax	5	55	45	363	9,013	4.03%
		Phx	6	56	56	382	10,104	3.78%
		Ral	8	52	26	313	6,776	4.62%
	Total		19	163	127	1,058	25,893	4.09%
Transformers EA	T-2	Jax	5	7	50	404	1,216	33.22%
		Phx	1	1	7	157	208	75.48%
		Ral	1	1	2	69	101	68.32%
	Total		7	9	59	630	1,525	41.31%

 

Transformers + EA T-3 comps

 - NTTD Total - missed

 - Ghostbusters Total - 1.811x (8.15m)

 - F9 - 1.166x (8.28m)

 - Dune - 1.432x (7.3m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .929x (8.175m)

 

Here are some T-2 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Creed III EA - 2.625x (2.625m)

 - Top Gun 2 EA - .393x (1.81)

 - Black Phone EA - 9.13x (3.65m)

 

Flash T-10 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.468x (12.92m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.76x (9.38m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.66x (11.06m)

 - F9 - 1.56x (11.08m)

 - Matrix 4 (Wed) - 1.065x (6.79m)

 - Eternals - .757x (7.19m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-9	Jax	6	62	17	432	9,790	4.41%
		Phx	6	48	9	500	8,749	5.71%
		Ral	8	62	26	381	8,640	4.41%
	Total		20	172	52	1,313	27,179	4.83%
Transformers 6	T-2	Jax	5	55	73	436	9,013	4.84%
		Phx	6	56	57	439	10,104	4.34%
		Ral	8	52	54	367	6,776	5.42%
	Total		19	163	184	1,242	25,893	4.80%
Transformers EA	T-1	Jax	5	7	91	495	1,216	40.71%
		Phx	1	1	6	163	208	78.37%
		Ral	1	1	4	73	101	72.28%
	Total		7	9	101	731	1,525	47.93%

 

Transformers T-2 comps (Excl EA)

 - NTTD- missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.138x (4.72m)

 - F9 - .718x (5.1m)

 - Dune - .824x (4.2m)

 - Black Adam - .667x (5.07m)

 - Shang-Chi - .593x (5.22m)

 

Here are some T-1 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Creed III EA - 2.647x (2.55m)

 - Top Gun 2 EA - .425x (1.95)

 - Black Phone EA - 5.895x (2.36m)

 

Currently thinking around 4.8m true previews + 2m EA.  

 

Flash T-9 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.345x (11.84m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.82x (9.58m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - F9 - 1.52x (10.79m)

 - Matrix 4 (Wed) - .994x (6.33m)

 - Eternals - .734x (6.97m)

[M37]

4 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

anyone watching on WED would have def watched on THU. without Ea comps just don't work. final day will have big divergence from rest of run.

Probably, but also EA shows free up capacity for Thursday (esp PLF) and are a smaller run and skewed towards bigger markets 

 

The best method might be to do both - comp with EA and w/o - and average them rather than just focus on one or the other (CC @keysersoze123)

[vafrow]

On 6/4/2023 at 6:12 AM, vafrow said:

 

Milton, Ontario T-5 Rise of the Beasts update

 

This comparison has only gotten worse as Fast X sales picked up by this point, where Rise of the Beasts has stayed flat for the last few days.

 

T:ROTB is at 0.588x Fast X for a $4.4M opening.

 

Comparison is worse using Across the Spiderverse, which is at 0.162x for $2.8M.

 

 

 

Transformers Rise of the Beasts T-3 update

Milton, Ontario 

 

Updating to have a bit of a benchmark to see if reviews do anything for the trend.

 

Fast X comp has declined. ROTB now at 0.442X of Fast X, for $3.3M. My theatre doesn't have an early access show, but others nearby do. It may be drawing business away.

 

Hopefully reviews lead to an uptick, but it's currently lagging, with no real signs of life on previews. The ATS comp is even worse at 0.124x for $910K. 

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

36 minutes ago, M37 said:

The best method might be to do both - comp with EA and w/o - and average them

This is my approach when I care enough about an EA release to really get into the nitty gritty

Spoiler

Which is basically never because that approach is a hassle 😛 

 

[keysersoze123]

40 minutes ago, M37 said:

Probably, but also EA shows free up capacity for Thursday (esp PLF) and are a smaller run and skewed towards bigger markets 

 

The best method might be to do both - comp with EA and w/o - and average them rather than just focus on one or the other (CC @keysersoze123)

I am in the camp of including EA to judge daily pace but extrapolate them separately. At least at both MTCs there is limited growth potential and also ratios are not the same. MTC ratios are way higher for EA as some markets dont have EA shows. @DAJK does Canada have shows on wednesday for Transformers?

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am in the camp of including EA to judge daily pace but extrapolate them separately. At least at both MTCs there is limited growth potential and also ratios are not the same. MTC ratios are way higher for EA as some markets dont have EA shows. @DAJK does Canada have shows on wednesday for Transformers?

Yes! Sales aren’t TOO bad for them either!

[Eric the Minion]

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	106	1576	18001	8.76%

 

Comp - T-3

2.814x of Uncharted (10.41M)

0.507x of Jurassic World 3 (9.12M)

0.984x of Black Adam (7.48M)

0.428x of Avatar 2 (7.27M)

0.898x of John Wick 4 (8M)

0.847x of Dungeons and Dragons (4.74M)

1.124x of Fast X (8.43M)

[Eric the Minion]

On 6/5/2023 at 10:50 AM, Eric 2099 said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	1687	18907	8.92%

 

Comp - T-11

0.322x of The Batman (6.95M)

0.910x of Jurassic World 3 (16.38M)

0.283x of Thor 4 (8.22M)

2.211x of Black Adam (16.8M)

0.798x of Avatar 2 (13.56M)

0.381x of Ant-Man 3 (6.67M)

0.502x of Guardians 3 (8.79M)

0.903x of Spider-Verse (15.68M)

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	1760	18907	9.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

 

Comp - T-10

0.327x of The Batman (7.07M)

0.905x of Jurassic World 3 (16.29M)

0.287x of Thor 4 (8.32M)

2.175x of Black Adam (16.53M)

0.803x of Avatar 2 (13.65M)

0.386x of Ant-Man 3 (6.76M)

0.503x of Guardians 3 (8.8M)

0.906x of Spider-Verse (15.72M)

[Boxofficerules]

Could The Blackening be number 1 next weekend?

[GOGODanca]

Just now, Boxofficerules said:

Could The Blackening be number 1 next weekend?

0

[Grebacio]

12 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Could The Blackening be number 1 next weekend?

Not even number 2

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Could The Blackening be number 1 next weekend?

No.  

 

And it won't be close.

 

The Blackening is getting a single screen at most places for presales, and that screen tends to not be the largest at the theater, while Elemental gets 2+ and Flash gets 3+.  Just on an available seats perspective, it's practically impossible, even if The Blackening sells every seat it has available for the weekend.

[cookie]

15 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Could The Blackening be number 1 next weekend?

May not even be top 5.

[TMP]

19 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Could The Blackening be number 1 next weekend?

It's definitely possible

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

 

 

 

Just forgot to update the seat info, the comps were correct.

 

Here is the updated seat info:

 

Rise of the Beasts: 

1978/22997 (8.60% sold) [+282 tickets]

 

I'll edit the post presently.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Porthos

[titanic2187]

Is there any evidence that EA actually help a movie? I don't understand why Paramount keep having when it is becoming more and more evident these EA are just shifting the crowd from weekend to EA without actually boosting overall sales, meanwhile, scarifying the screen from holdovers. 

[GOGODanca]

Oppenheimer (D-44) Thursday Previews:

138 tickets sold across 18 showtimes at 9 Cinemark's

 

268 ticket sold across 15 showtimes at 7 AMC's (+26 tickets from yesterday, one new location with 4 showtimes was added but only sold 2 tickets there so +24 in holdover locations)

[Tinalera]

So just confused, is this thread still open? I saw message at beginning of thread of it going into data and numbers (maybe?) but didn't see a lot of stuff there I see in this thread...just wanting to make sure I find the new place lol-or if a link to new thread has been posted yet.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Tinalera

[rehpyc]

20 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is there any evidence that EA actually help a movie? I don't understand why Paramount keep having when it is becoming more and more evident these EA are just shifting the crowd from weekend to EA without actually boosting overall sales, meanwhile, scarifying the screen from holdovers. 

In what's becoming a PLF-driven market, the added show(s) could help make the small difference between someone being able to get a ticket for the opening weekend vs. waiting until the 2nd weekend, which in a month like June could mean not catching the PLF.