The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[MightyDargon]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Tbh I never understood where the "Indiana Jones will be this year's Maverick" predictions were coming from when it always seemed to have even less going for it than the previous one did when it came out (Spielberg not back in the director's chair, no truly exciting casting decisions that would've enticed younger demos in major numbers). Honestly, that movie seemed to use up whatever nostalgia card there was for this particular IP, especially when Ford was already at an advanced age for an action star back then and is obviously even more so now. A run similar to Solo always seemed to be in the cards for this IMO though who knows if it'll even approach those numbers now.

Indy=Maverick was well outside of even the most generous predictions of anyone but the most magical thinkers here. There was absolutely no advance buzz that said it was on par on with Maverick. This wasn't a "FLASH IS THE BEST SUPERHERO MOVIE SINCE DARK KNIGHT" hype thingy.

[SchumacherFTW]

17 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

NTDD didn't underperform, $800M with covid is impressive, would have done a billio in normal times. 

Specifically we're talking about that in the US, the rest of the world it did well, but the US definitely underperformed relative to expectations, the legs weren't even all that either. 

[MrPink]

NTTD came out at a really bad time and had a really protracted marketing campaign that I think all hurt it. I think under more normal circumstances post COVID, it probably performs similarly to Spectre domestically. Spectre and Skyfall had that first weekend of November date and got Thanksgiving to help out with legs where as NTTD was hammered by competition until it was too late. All this while the COVID situation was still very much in flux.

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by MrPink

[Cmasterclay]

I really think Barbie and Oppenheimer opening against each other is driving one of the most organic hype cycles in a long time. I would have been predicting 40m OW for Oppenheimer if it opened against nothing but I'm predicting 60m+ BECAUSE of the competition. The memes are everywhere, the hype is everywhere, it's just genius.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

30 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is it just me or are Insidious numbers not great?

They're not great, but it's not uncommon for horror not to pick up until the final week.  I just looked back and noticed that I had Evil Dead Rise at T-9 as well with 168 tickets sold which would put that comp around 1.43m as well.   I'll also add Knock at the Cabin comp tomorrow, which ironically is also at 1.41m today.  

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Tbh I never understood where the "Indiana Jones will be this year's Maverick" predictions were coming from when it always seemed to have even less going for it than the previous one did when it came out (Spielberg not back in the director's chair, no truly exciting casting decisions that would've enticed younger demos in major numbers). Honestly, that movie seemed to use up whatever nostalgia card there was for this particular IP, especially when Ford was already at an advanced age for an action star back then and is obviously even more so now. A run similar to Solo always seemed to be in the cards for this IMO though who knows if it'll even approach those numbers now.

Was there a lot of hype for TGM last year?? I remember seeing prediction of $100m-$200m finish total flying around before the presale started. 

[Joel M]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Was there a lot of hype for TGM last year?? I remember seeing prediction of $100m-$200m finish total flying around before the presale started. 

 

There was huge hype about its quality and the way it was shot. Boxoffice was more of a questionmark since it was a belated sequel to a movie that while huge in its time, wasn't exactly omnipresent in the culture. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is it just me or are Insidious numbers not great?

It’s a horror movie, not really a brand at this point, which always starts soft and ramps up late, and opening right after 4th of July. Comp I think is most apt is M3G, which also opened right after a holiday break

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, MrPink said:

NTTD came out at a really bad time and had a really protracted marketing campaign that I think all hurt it. I think under more normal circumstances post COVID, it probably performs similarly to Spectre domestically. Spectre and Skyfall had that first weekend of November date and got Thanksgiving to help out with legs where as NTTD was hammered by competition until it was too late. All this while the COVID situation was still very much in flux.

 

 

Bond has been more of an oversea performer than a US performer, Skyfall doing $300m was really the exception not the norm Spectre barely made $200m domestic. 

 

For Eon, I would imagine the UK is their key market, not the US.

[JustLurking]

go to the indiana jones thread

[XXR & Friends]

I think I made enough warnings about these convos derailing the thread, it’s time for points to be issued. 

[Issac Newton]

Tickets are live now (per tweet). If you are a fan of baseball do watch SLAM DUNK! Did $278M in Asia (Including Italy) where Japan gross is at $110M &China $93M!!

[DC Rich]

32 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

I think I made enough warnings about these convos derailing the thread, it’s time for points to be issued. 

 

[Bobzaruni]

I have a question, will there even be room for any holdovers at all given MI7, Barbie, and Oppenheimer not only being there at the same but also that, barring children, counter-programming is kind of baked into this?

Edited June 27, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[ThomasNicole]

Insidious sales doesn’t look bad to me, unless the movie weirdly doesn’t ramp up on final week, i can see +20M OW 

 

It looks super bad tho, maybe this can be a problem

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-2	Indiana Jones	PLF	24	517	517	5,985	8.64%
		Standard	32	225	225	4,035	5.58%
	Total		56	742	742	10,020	7.41%
T-3	Indiana Jones (Fri)	PLF	31	624	624	8,223	7.59%
		Standard	48	225	225	6,121	3.68%
	Total		79	849	849	14,344	5.92%

 

I don't have any good comps for this, but I figured I'd post it since I ran it.

[vafrow]

22 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

I have a question, will there even be room for any holdovers at all given MI7, Barbie, and Oppenheimer not only being there at the same but also that, barring children, counter-programming is kind of baked into this?

There still will be plenty of screens, but, there will be a lot of films probably all settling into a similar space, so we'll need to see what performs.

 

Elemental and ATSV are likely going to remain strong all through July. I'd say Indy is probably safe for a while as well.

 

Beyond that, it's really anyone's guess. Joy Ride can be a surprising leggy hit that gets a few extra weeks. Same with Insidious.

 

I think Transformers might be an option for dumb fun for younger audiences against a backdrop against the adult skewing slate of July to hang around a bit.

 

TLM has held well, but, I expect that an extra screen for Barbie will be a better investment for theatres.

 

[Tinalera]

6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, b/c it's bothered me, and we've talked about inherent possible bias in the sampling of the current PostTrak demo data...well, I went to Wiki...

 

"PostTrak focuses on wide releases and polls audiences across 20 markets in the United States and Canada,"

 

So, knowing it's just 20 geographic markets across the 2 countries, does anyone know which exact 20 they are, b/c then we could research age and diversity movement into and out of the markets to know if they still represent the same overall skew they had preCovid vs now after a lot of movement into and out of cities during Covid...and we could generalize the rough "sampling error" it might have vs the pre-Covid movies to see if it is true loss or sampling loss for certain demos...

 

 

Honestly for Canada, I would speculate Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver as possiblities (not that they use all of them, just most likely candidates)

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Indiana Jones (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	109	244	1444	19200	7.52

 

The numbers I posted from T-4 were a bit off, I caught a mistake after I posted them. These are all correct. Very good day locally I would say, a number of shows added as well. 

 

Ruby Gillman (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	32	3	26	3073	0.85

 

DOA.

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Indiana Jones (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	140	268	1712	23127	7.4

 

Ruby Gillman (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	53	9	35	4634	0.76

[TwoMisfits]

Well, it worked for Spidey...

 

So, my #1 predicted DOM movie of the summer got a $5 TMobile Atom ticket deal.

And so's my #2 - yes, MI 7 will be getting a $5 ticket deal, but only AFTER its Sunday and Monday EA shows - so, the deal starts Tuesday 7/11.

 

I expect this deal to be a very good thing for this movie to get the fence sitters in to see the amazing stunts.  Who wouldn't for $5 (my spouse, who's never seen an MI, just told me he'd be happy to go for $5:)...